BTCUSD
According to this theory, based on the assumption we already had 3 cycles (2011 is one) we will not see a top for the fourth cycle in December or quarter 1 2022.
Each date of the Bitcoin halving is important for the analysis, through which one can recognize a clear structure, since the strong bull run of psychological people buying behavior can only begin afterwards due to the subsequent shortage of supply. With the current block generation time, the next halving date is assumed to be May 6th, 2024.
It was 357 days from the first halving in 2012 to the top price. It was 525 days from the next halving in 2016 to the top. A time increase of 1.47 compared to the last run. If you take this value as a fixed factor related to the previous cycle, you would reach the next price target from the end of June to the beginning of July 2022.
Each previous cycle top ends in a bear market that forms a red triangle or bull flag in higher time frame. In the last 10 years there were 2 values outside, driven by FUD(fear, uncertainty, doubt) on all financial markets due to external influences.
If you pull the Fibonacci-Retracement from the bullrun top to the bear market low, the triangle runs perfectly towards the yellow Golden-Pocket(0.618-0.65) with a target of 2.414. Which leads to a green top at the end of the current cycle of around 260k +-30k. A wide range because we only stay at these heights for a few days and price is based on emotions that are controlled by greed and worldwide media attention.
Suppose we take the starting trade value of Bitcoin in July 2010 as a bearmarket low. Then there are 329 days until the bull run top 2011. Again from the bear market low to the high at the end of 2013 it is now 742 days, 410 days more than the previous run. This parabolic bull run top arrived again around 90 days earlier in the following cycle added from the previous cycle. This would also bring us to a top in late June through early July 2022 marked in green.
This analysis was drawn on the weekly timeframe, so the halving date is not correct and all other calculated values are +-6 days. As a result, some data are estimated and not accurate.
This is my first theory.
The importance for investors is to think long term.