EXCAVO

Bitcoin started the next bull cycle

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello, I want to take a closer look at Bitcoin's price weekly logarithmic chart.

Firstly, the chart examines growth and fall cycles, sometimes referred to as economic cycles or trade cycles. As you can see in my analysis, the growth cycle usually lasts approximately 150 weeks and is always longer than the fall cycle that spans out over the course of approximately 51-60 weeks.

150 bars on Bitcoin's weekly price chart, mark the beginning of a next pulse of the growth cycle that we are currently in. Everything in our life is based on cyclical patterns, especially when it comes to financial markets.

If we analyze the rise and fall, we can conclude that the fall occurs faster than the growth of about three times.

Based on Kondratieff's scientific works on periodic waves theory, that refines up and down movements of the modern world economy, we can predict that Bitcoin is yet to go through another 3-4 annual cycles. As many already know, all theories that have worked effectively in traditional financial markets will be carried out into cryptocurrency markets. But until Bitcoin will cross $6,000 price mark, nothing is set in stone.

In this bear market that lasted 51 weeks, a lower channel was formed, which has been broken by a strong impulse movement and high volumes. But at the top, there is a serious mirror resistance level in the region of $5,800-$6,000. The MA50 and 100 also have to be broken in order to keep the momentum


An ascending triangle figure is also emerging on the Bitcoin price chart, which could potentially signal upward breakout. Since there are a lot of good news about cryptocurrency and, especially Bitcoin , this could be a unique investment opportunity for the next four years.
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Comments

Hi @EXCAVO I hope you are well!

Based on your analysis the BTC price will be about 270k in 2-3 years if it passes 6k. Do you really think so?
If YES, than do you think we really need trading ideas for crypto?
We could just buy and hold these 2-3 years doing nothing.

But can we take this risk? I personally trade from level to level, my years in the market told me not to make such assumption, after a bottom the market can give a prize, a new bottom, same is with the tops.
Are you really going to just buy and hold if we break 6k? What are the fundamental reasons for such movement in the long run?
+24 Reply
GoldBow3 DLavrov
@DLavrov, You aren't familiar with the current fundamentals of crypto? There is a lot to catch up on.
+3 Reply
DLavrov GoldBow3
@GoldBow3, I have some ideas about it, but I don't understand how they can support the market moving even above 100 000 level? There are so many fundamental factors which can change the crypto fundamentals any time.
+2 Reply
@DLavrov, do you not understand human psychology ? they like to buy things that are going up until they don't anymore.
so after 6k price action until 20k then new ATH mean a lot of attention (new buyers) then fomo from 50k to the moon. there is no need for fundamentals to support the price. people are doing it juste fine.
smart money TP target are way higher than yours and it will always be the case.


their buy order are also way lower than yours ^^.
+1 Reply
DLavrov DecisionDoji
@DecisionDoji, yes, may be I don't understand perfectly human psychology... but what I can see exactly - people like to di stupid things, people like to lose money, people want to become rich without any efforts... and many things which people like to do without thinking before making a new step forward. It can explain why crypto is the perfect place for all kind of manipulators. People will buy without thinking and it will the market unstable.
+1 Reply
@DLavrov, That's exactly what makes bitcoin valuable. there will always be someone willing to buy even at 100k.
call it a ponzi it don't even matter. what matter is that it is going up since 10 years and it is out performing everything out there at condition that you buy at the right time.
and there is people who it is litteraly the job to know when it is the right time to buy. and these people are buying BTC right now.I hope you can see it.
+2 Reply
EXCAVO DLavrov
@DLavrov, Hi Dmitry, thanks for the question.
I did not show the price above 86000

I will continue to publish charts with my trading ideas as short-term, medium-term, and long-term.
I am going to devote my life to studying the financial market, because the market is a teacher for me, I treat him with respect and of course I will share my vision. This is what I do on my page.
Trading from levels is a good strategy for medium and short-term trading, for that respect. What I showed on this chart is the cycles of growth and decline, as well as the trend. And if we talk about myself, then I have a certain amount of bitcoins that I will keep for at least the next 4 years, and also I cannot withdraw from the wallet. I decided to do just that.

 Yes, I really believe in the further growth of Bitcoin.
 You asked what growth reasons :
1.Trend
2. Technology
3. Limited offer
4. The cyclicality of the markets, we have already seen several cycles of Bitcoin
5. Belief in this financial instrument
6. Increase awareness and understanding of what bitcoin is
7. Easy to use
8.Bitcoin legalization in the world
9.relatively small capitalization ( when bitcoin touch 86k capitalisation will around 2 trillion $)
+21 Reply
weslad EXCAVO
@EXCAVO, wow!!!! this is classy response, super great well detailed
+4 Reply
DLavrov EXCAVO
@EXCAVO, thanks for sharing these reasons. I can support you with numbers like 2, 3, 7 and may be 9. As for others, they look so unpredictable in the long run and not so reliable. But it's just from my point of view.
+5 Reply
@DLavrov, Buy and hold son, the real money is made long term, while that you trade on the levels with not exposing too much. If you dont see the potential of this maybe you should take more time to study the fundamentals and why a deflationary coin has such BIG POTENTIAL
+3 Reply
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