BTC: range bound between 34 - 37K

INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin is (again) stuck in a range, similar to what we have seen after previous dumps.

The chop range is roughly between 34 and 37K. Breaking resistance at 38,5K and hold it as daily support will lead us into tapping 40K before another move down. If we break the lower bound support at 34,2K we will retest previous support at 33K . This is crucial support, wicking lower than our previous low will lead us testing the waters at 30K and would imply another round of fierce corrections in the alt coin market.

The meeting of the Federal Reserve did not go well for the markets globally. Quantitative easing will be trimmed down and interest rate hikes will be announced at every conseqequential FOMC. The financial growth factor has thus been taking out of the American market and will hurt indexes across the globe. No exception for Bitcoin or crypto in general. I am not planning to trade this market yet and have been on the sidelines since early December. I did try some moves with less than 5% of my portfolio and results weren't worth the effort. For now, I have no other strategy than to stay in cash and strike when the global indexes have bottomed out or there is substantial reason for a reversal. I think every trader should be cautious during these times to not get caught out in the chop.

Even if BTC reclaims the 40K mark I am not yet convinced for a full market reverse. The irresponsible behaviour of retail being the reason for that, yesterday's little retrace to the mean stacked 9 billion (!) worth of long liquidations right in the chop zone. A substantial part being taken out and a substantial part is left up for grab for the market makers. With another move up this will be no different and its a lucrative way for the market makers to build shorts - they are loving it. I see clear revenge trading going on with retail covering their losses with over leveraged longs, the average is well above 30x and 100x's are no exception! Do the math and you can see how easy these liquidations grabs are for the market makers.

I wouldn't be surprised with another short squeeze and a fierce dump just after that but I don't think we'll see much action till the end of January. February might open green to get everyone's hopes up in order to wipe you out by the end of it. Not for me, I will not take part of it and I don't play games with the intelligent bot machine that is market making in crypto today. I'll leave that to the laser eyed retail trader and once their funds have ran dry and the crypto market has fully capitalised, I will return on the market, starting where everyone has left.

2022 has just started and we are nowhere near the end, patience is your friend, FOMO is your enemy.

IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
Comment: Reversal Wednesday or Thursday incoming? I dont like the single wick up (V shape instead of a double bottom) — looks too much like previous scenarios where ended up diving into the lowest wick. I expect we revisit 34K zone at some point this month. Lets see how the stock markets play out till the weekend. Lots of news is coming in the next few weeks…

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