This is an improvement of a earlier prediction (See "Bitcoin: Long term prediction").
First i started with a logarithmic chart of BTC vs USD, then a pattern appeared with the form of a logarithmic increment.
I builded a lower curve between the 3 floors of the historic chart, and then locked a curve that the first point coincide with the first point of the first curve, but the second point locate in the 3th point of the first curve, then move the third end point of the new curve with the intention of fit the secondary curve perfectly with the first original curve.
For the upper curve applied the same technique, but applying in the ATH's.
Then i saw that another interesting pattern when the price of BTC get over a previous ATH. I show this pattern with the horizontal lines (Blue), when the price went up of the line then the bullrun stage started.
In this chart i focused mainly in the proportions of the 3 elemental movements in the BTC price history.
- Bullrun (Green):
Tend to decrease the duration of time and price.
- Correction (Red):
Tend to increase the duration but the range of price still proportional.
- Passivation (Violet):
Tent to increase the duration and maybe the increment of price.
Also i included secondary elements but not less important.
- ATH (Orange):
Tend to increase the duration of time.
- Halving (Light blue):
Remain constant, this is consistent with the mechanism of halving that split the reward every 216000 blocks, and every 2016 blocks the sistem adjust to a rate of 1 block every 10 minutes.
First i started with a logarithmic chart of BTC vs USD, then a pattern appeared with the form of a logarithmic increment.
I builded a lower curve between the 3 floors of the historic chart, and then locked a curve that the first point coincide with the first point of the first curve, but the second point locate in the 3th point of the first curve, then move the third end point of the new curve with the intention of fit the secondary curve perfectly with the first original curve.
For the upper curve applied the same technique, but applying in the ATH's.
Then i saw that another interesting pattern when the price of BTC get over a previous ATH. I show this pattern with the horizontal lines (Blue), when the price went up of the line then the bullrun stage started.
In this chart i focused mainly in the proportions of the 3 elemental movements in the BTC price history.
- Bullrun (Green):
Tend to decrease the duration of time and price.
- Correction (Red):
Tend to increase the duration but the range of price still proportional.
- Passivation (Violet):
Tent to increase the duration and maybe the increment of price.
Also i included secondary elements but not less important.
- ATH (Orange):
Tend to increase the duration of time.
- Halving (Light blue):
Remain constant, this is consistent with the mechanism of halving that split the reward every 216000 blocks, and every 2016 blocks the sistem adjust to a rate of 1 block every 10 minutes.