micmuc
Long

Comparison to previous bear market

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Many believe that low volume is a bad sign, however the fact that we've been moving up last few weeks on low, decreasing volume is in fact a very strong sign. It's a sign that very few holders are willing to sell. The investors that recognise that from a long-term perspective the current prices are quite great and hence want to increase their long positions thereby drive up the price more than one would normally expect.

Regarding the graph above: also note the very similar RSI level

My prediction: we'll see 6000+ before the end of May
Comment: Well there it is. Of course we might see a small retrace now, but mostly due to opportunistic day traders. No holder is selling here and as we've just seen proof once again, very few holders are willing to sell in the first place.

Rest assured we'll go further up coming weeks, and we'll see at least 6k
Well there it is. Of course we might see a small retrace now, but mostly due to opportunistic day traders. No holder is selling here and as we've just seen proof once again, very few holders are willing to sell in the first place.

Rest assured we'll go further up coming weeks, and we'll see at least 6k
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Hmm..I don't want you to be right, but you might be...
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you might be right, but there is also that big red candle that is probably coming too, that dips below the previous low at the beginning of the yellow area.
+1 Reply
micmuc alexyeoh
@alexyeoh,

The bottom we saw in December 2018 was already near 85% lower than the 2017 top. That was a similar low to the low you're referring to (the one at the beginning of the yellow area of the 2015 bear market, compared to the 2013 top).

The only true dip I still give a chance of happening is one *after* we would have climbed towards 6k+, similar to the 2015 dip of August 2015. I think that will be a smaller dip than what we saw in 2015 though; there are still so many investors out there (institutional ones especially) eager to get in and afraid of missing out before the next true bull run, I don't think they can keep their nerves and wait to fish for true bottom prices. If things start dropping a little after reaching 6k or so, things will probably get bought up more quickly than in 2015. Again, as illustrated by the price increases of last few weeks during a decreasing volume period, I think the market is actually much more bullish than it may appear in the sense that there are a lot of holders simply not willing to sell.
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alexyeoh thekingjayd
@thekingjayd, what's the metric used for that chart looking like a red blue "river"? Thanks!
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thekingjayd alexyeoh
@alexyeoh, the same as your green and red river my friend
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