By using Macroeconomy data, On-chain Data, total Crypto Market CAP and TA, I will provide some information about current situations and scenarios that might happen.
Please always consider, I'm not advising anyone to buy or sell anything and please do you own research. This is the strategy I use for medium/long term by simplifying the data from Technical Analysis to Macroeconomy level. Hence I do not really look into 1h and 4h chart as it makes things more complicated and it takes time to dive into. I will start by Macroeconomy as it is the bigger picture in any investment and can influence the current of the market the most, then talk about some on-chain data, and at last, I'll go through my BTC analysis and scenarios that might happen.
(Edit: sadly this supposed to have a picture of Brent Oil, US10Y and Total crypto Market Cap charts, but no paid membership, no URL. Hence I put it in comments if you would like to see)
Macroeconomy:
1.Brent Oil Broke the long term down trend line that started from July 2008, and now it shows a reaction to a Major resistance. The reason I'm using Brent oil in my explanation is it can cause an inflation globally and that would makes risky investment such as crypto grow couple of months more than it should. $82-$85 should be carefully watched to see what will happen.
US government bonds 10YR cross a major medium trend line and it retested major resistance area. Initial expectation is it will increase as the 1.5 became a support and the next major resistance is around 1.7. As the US10Y increases, there is a risk for the risky investment such as crypto to fall.
3. Also, you have to look for tomorrows data for Unemployment rate (8th of Oct). If it increases more than expectation, there is less chance Fed start tapering quickly. Also so many important data will come in following week as well.
On-chain Data:
I'm not sure If I can screenshot the on-chain data, write and measure my own analysis on it and use it in here, so if anyone so far is here with me I would appreciate if can tell so I can use it in future analysis.
Active Addresses, New Addresses, Difficulty and hash rate all have their upward trend since mid July (After the crash) and it is illustrating that Activity and safety of market is improving consistently and general view for BTC is getting better.
One thing that caught my interest was Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is on Sep 6th, when the price of BTC was $52600, NUPL was 0.5834 and yesterday's price closed on $55400 NUPL ended up lower than 6th of Sept with 0.5650. this means that lot of coin were bought in this duration which can be sign for bullish market, however NUPL does not mean anything by itself.
As NVT Signal hit its 3months low on Oct 1st, it is starting to grow which is not really out of expectation as the Market Cap is increasing. Even the price increased massively since mid July, NVT single is almost at the same level to the current position and this would illustrate the massive increase in transactions. Hence, The Price-to-Earning value wise, it is in a good position to buy.
Total Crypto Market CAP
On 3rd and 4th of the Oct, Total Crypto Market CAP showed a reaction to the minor down trend and it broke it out. However It could not pass the resistance level 2.25T-2.30T. on the next day in enter the resistance level and it barely touched the major down trend. Now we have to monitor how does it react in following days. There are 3 different scenarios.
1. After it has its correction today it'll make the 2.25T-2.3T as it's supports and break the down trend line (with or without a retest)
2.It will move up and down in a range between trend line to make bull flag ( most likely going upward, but we have seen before that is not 100%)
3. It cannot pass the resistance range and go down to hit the minor trend line which we have to observe the market sentiment.
Bitcoin BTC
I know I wrote so much before I even start talking about BTC but we have to consider TA alone doesn't provide much and we have to observe and compare other data that relate to Crypto Market.
As you most likely know, BTC broke its down trend. In my analysis I'm using Price Action Support and Resistance (S/R), Fib retrace and Fib extension, volume profile and trend line. I don't want to complicate things as I am mostly Medium term trader, rarely swing trader. Hence I am mostly looking at 1D and 1W charts, and sometimes for confirmations 4H.
BTC price broke the $52000 resistance with two Marubozu Candles and showed a reaction to $55000 level which is major Fib and volume profile resistance level. It is not really surprising if BTC have a correction today between range of $55000 and $53000.
There is a minor resistance level between $56k till $58k which $58k range has a correlation with Medium and short-term Fib extension. The next major resistance can be $63k-$66k as it is ATH and it has several Fib resistance levels as well. If it passes this level the next major Resistance for BTC is $76k area.
With at that said most scenarios are favor towards bulls are more active however you have to keep this in mind every scenario is possible. The sentiment of the market and news are positive so my expectations are positive as well. However we have to watch the US Government bonds and Friday's unemployment rate for better analysis.
Hope you enjoyed this Analysis.
Please always consider, I'm not advising anyone to buy or sell anything and please do you own research. This is the strategy I use for medium/long term by simplifying the data from Technical Analysis to Macroeconomy level. Hence I do not really look into 1h and 4h chart as it makes things more complicated and it takes time to dive into. I will start by Macroeconomy as it is the bigger picture in any investment and can influence the current of the market the most, then talk about some on-chain data, and at last, I'll go through my BTC analysis and scenarios that might happen.
(Edit: sadly this supposed to have a picture of Brent Oil, US10Y and Total crypto Market Cap charts, but no paid membership, no URL. Hence I put it in comments if you would like to see)
Macroeconomy:
1.Brent Oil Broke the long term down trend line that started from July 2008, and now it shows a reaction to a Major resistance. The reason I'm using Brent oil in my explanation is it can cause an inflation globally and that would makes risky investment such as crypto grow couple of months more than it should. $82-$85 should be carefully watched to see what will happen.
US government bonds 10YR cross a major medium trend line and it retested major resistance area. Initial expectation is it will increase as the 1.5 became a support and the next major resistance is around 1.7. As the US10Y increases, there is a risk for the risky investment such as crypto to fall.
3. Also, you have to look for tomorrows data for Unemployment rate (8th of Oct). If it increases more than expectation, there is less chance Fed start tapering quickly. Also so many important data will come in following week as well.
On-chain Data:
I'm not sure If I can screenshot the on-chain data, write and measure my own analysis on it and use it in here, so if anyone so far is here with me I would appreciate if can tell so I can use it in future analysis.
Active Addresses, New Addresses, Difficulty and hash rate all have their upward trend since mid July (After the crash) and it is illustrating that Activity and safety of market is improving consistently and general view for BTC is getting better.
One thing that caught my interest was Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is on Sep 6th, when the price of BTC was $52600, NUPL was 0.5834 and yesterday's price closed on $55400 NUPL ended up lower than 6th of Sept with 0.5650. this means that lot of coin were bought in this duration which can be sign for bullish market, however NUPL does not mean anything by itself.
As NVT Signal hit its 3months low on Oct 1st, it is starting to grow which is not really out of expectation as the Market Cap is increasing. Even the price increased massively since mid July, NVT single is almost at the same level to the current position and this would illustrate the massive increase in transactions. Hence, The Price-to-Earning value wise, it is in a good position to buy.
Total Crypto Market CAP
On 3rd and 4th of the Oct, Total Crypto Market CAP showed a reaction to the minor down trend and it broke it out. However It could not pass the resistance level 2.25T-2.30T. on the next day in enter the resistance level and it barely touched the major down trend. Now we have to monitor how does it react in following days. There are 3 different scenarios.
1. After it has its correction today it'll make the 2.25T-2.3T as it's supports and break the down trend line (with or without a retest)
2.It will move up and down in a range between trend line to make bull flag ( most likely going upward, but we have seen before that is not 100%)
3. It cannot pass the resistance range and go down to hit the minor trend line which we have to observe the market sentiment.
Bitcoin BTC
I know I wrote so much before I even start talking about BTC but we have to consider TA alone doesn't provide much and we have to observe and compare other data that relate to Crypto Market.
As you most likely know, BTC broke its down trend. In my analysis I'm using Price Action Support and Resistance (S/R), Fib retrace and Fib extension, volume profile and trend line. I don't want to complicate things as I am mostly Medium term trader, rarely swing trader. Hence I am mostly looking at 1D and 1W charts, and sometimes for confirmations 4H.
BTC price broke the $52000 resistance with two Marubozu Candles and showed a reaction to $55000 level which is major Fib and volume profile resistance level. It is not really surprising if BTC have a correction today between range of $55000 and $53000.
There is a minor resistance level between $56k till $58k which $58k range has a correlation with Medium and short-term Fib extension. The next major resistance can be $63k-$66k as it is ATH and it has several Fib resistance levels as well. If it passes this level the next major Resistance for BTC is $76k area.
With at that said most scenarios are favor towards bulls are more active however you have to keep this in mind every scenario is possible. The sentiment of the market and news are positive so my expectations are positive as well. However we have to watch the US Government bonds and Friday's unemployment rate for better analysis.
Hope you enjoyed this Analysis.