Hi guys. yes btc made a little upwards movement! i like it even though it is short lived! i sold some longs, shorts at 64/64.2 got filled in, but i sold some at 63.3 level now looks like it wants to come up more, to 64~65 zone, in next 12~24 hours!
anyway, in the big picture, what would happen? would 5k 5.2k come? possibly, but, BIASED IN BULLS, i want to show you a possible scenario, that doesn't dip to 5.2 5.5 in the near future. this chart invalidates, as soon as 5800 breaks down in the coming days or weeks.
so this scenario, has some proof now.
1. btc show bull div, in long, long time frames from months ago at 57~58.
2. we keep bouncing from that area, with daily rsi making higher high whenever the dip.
3.etf event always move the market in bullish way, if it dips too much to early 5k, belief will be lost
4.alts in descending triangle, would drop more in the future, but short term, many are too oversold, bull div on frames,
need to make a little upwards channel in the descending triangle
5.btc looks like it might make a higher high in rsi 35~40 area, when it dips(that means now btc needs to go high to 64, 65,66 to recharge gauge until 14th)
6. weekly candle bearish last week, indicate more drop would occur.
7.every time the dip, we have higher bottoms(5750->5820->maybe 5900ish)->indicate triple bottom formation is in. usually third bottom is higher then the former bottoms
HOWEVER, all this will be invalidated when it breaks 5800. that means this TA is GARBAGE instantly when it dips lower than 5800. so keep in mind. i will comment this ta as garbage if it dips lower then 5800.haha
you see the chart, i have almost 80% conviction it will drop until the end of this week to 59/60 area. after that it would challenge upwards, but, come down zigzag. so september trading range might be 5.9k~6.8k. which is so gloomy now. early october, risk more drop too, we need to see. you see, this zone now, tricky, btc peak high comes down, volume drops, so price range is very tightening. so i think september is boring, and october could risk a real, real drop to 5k, or even below. because, we do see drops are mitigating, BUT, we also see that weekly bull div, daily bull div, is not yet no convincing, not really significant. if this is significant, we should have already have the bull run. so maybe a REAL DROP can happen in october, and early november, to confirm the real bottom. because long term uptrend line, in btc, still indicate a touch to 4.9~5k can be possible. like below.
so short term,trading, is already as mentioned, we add up shorts. although, i have two accounts(long/short) so i do that too.
so this can break down any moment, 1hr rsi is already at peak, which normally indicate 64is the top, but maybe another leg up to 64~65 zone can be possible, which, most likely should show a wick candle and retrace severely. even though, we have 15th etf event, which the bulls can pick up and go up. or 59 zone can come this week, before the weekly close who knows.
so trading plans are.
1. open short
6400/6440/6470/6520
leverage more when it comes higher
stoploss:6580
(if this goes over 64.8, retrace to 63.8~64.2, starts to be supported by 64, we sell shorts wait for more high)
2. open long
62.5~63
target:64 zone
-little risky this call. we have to see if triangle bottom is supported
happy trading!
anyway, in the big picture, what would happen? would 5k 5.2k come? possibly, but, BIASED IN BULLS, i want to show you a possible scenario, that doesn't dip to 5.2 5.5 in the near future. this chart invalidates, as soon as 5800 breaks down in the coming days or weeks.
so this scenario, has some proof now.
1. btc show bull div, in long, long time frames from months ago at 57~58.
2. we keep bouncing from that area, with daily rsi making higher high whenever the dip.
3.etf event always move the market in bullish way, if it dips too much to early 5k, belief will be lost
4.alts in descending triangle, would drop more in the future, but short term, many are too oversold, bull div on frames,
need to make a little upwards channel in the descending triangle
5.btc looks like it might make a higher high in rsi 35~40 area, when it dips(that means now btc needs to go high to 64, 65,66 to recharge gauge until 14th)
6. weekly candle bearish last week, indicate more drop would occur.
7.every time the dip, we have higher bottoms(5750->5820->maybe 5900ish)->indicate triple bottom formation is in. usually third bottom is higher then the former bottoms
HOWEVER, all this will be invalidated when it breaks 5800. that means this TA is GARBAGE instantly when it dips lower than 5800. so keep in mind. i will comment this ta as garbage if it dips lower then 5800.haha
you see the chart, i have almost 80% conviction it will drop until the end of this week to 59/60 area. after that it would challenge upwards, but, come down zigzag. so september trading range might be 5.9k~6.8k. which is so gloomy now. early october, risk more drop too, we need to see. you see, this zone now, tricky, btc peak high comes down, volume drops, so price range is very tightening. so i think september is boring, and october could risk a real, real drop to 5k, or even below. because, we do see drops are mitigating, BUT, we also see that weekly bull div, daily bull div, is not yet no convincing, not really significant. if this is significant, we should have already have the bull run. so maybe a REAL DROP can happen in october, and early november, to confirm the real bottom. because long term uptrend line, in btc, still indicate a touch to 4.9~5k can be possible. like below.
so short term,trading, is already as mentioned, we add up shorts. although, i have two accounts(long/short) so i do that too.
so this can break down any moment, 1hr rsi is already at peak, which normally indicate 64is the top, but maybe another leg up to 64~65 zone can be possible, which, most likely should show a wick candle and retrace severely. even though, we have 15th etf event, which the bulls can pick up and go up. or 59 zone can come this week, before the weekly close who knows.
so trading plans are.
1. open short
6400/6440/6470/6520
leverage more when it comes higher
stoploss:6580
(if this goes over 64.8, retrace to 63.8~64.2, starts to be supported by 64, we sell shorts wait for more high)
2. open long
62.5~63
target:64 zone
-little risky this call. we have to see if triangle bottom is supported
happy trading!
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so i entered short at 64/64.2, sold 50% at early 63 level now. i am in long from 6315~ lets see if we make lower high, like 6370~6380, or similar high as 6450, or higher high at 65 zone!
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www.tradingview.com/x/mm2gNspi/so today, mostly likely this scenario today. today is dangerous, see if 6260~70 breaks when we see retracement, that would mean continuation of drop. normally this case we would see retracement to 63 or 62.7~8 at most after lower high. if it retraces to 63, stops there, means some bullishness, and if tomorrow it even closes higher then today like 63.8 or something, bollingerband would band up little bit, it could try more to upper 64, and 65~66 coming days.
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okay, dipping lower then i thought, don't really care, i got more longs in 6288, i plan to go long more until 6260~70 level, if that breaks stoploss is 6250. short term scalping. let's see.
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so safe long sell for this could be around 6350~60(bitmex), could switch to short, but lets see now. little doubtful it could make higher high, small trading range, but going short little amount 6355~70 area, can work if scenario plays out.
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oh no! my stoploss for long was cut at 6250. let's see now. more like a bearish engulfing candle, which indicate more drop has been made at 1hr, 4hr almost breaking down the wedge.
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i got in long again 6248, 1hr/4hr defended its breakdown from the wedge, still never safe now, scalping a little can be possible though. if you are conservative, long or short isn't so good, now market needs to decide which way to go. now 50:50 chance of breaking down, or breaking up. indicators tell, like the stochastic more drop can come, all banding down now.
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So looks weak i scalped 6249 to 6282 got back in at 6268.stoploss is 6240 i will put sell order at 6335.might not be the end of triangle another spurt to 6340~6360and might fall again or,even go up if lucky. Maintain your short orders at 64 65 zone, but if you can risk it put small short order around 6360~6380 too.
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ok, stop caught, got back in 6170, scalped that to 6240. going longs at this massive downtrend! so hard! so guys look out for this pattern. now what is important is daily close in next 8hours. bulls would want to go over 63, over 6320 to maintain bullishness, but bears would want to push that to 6240, 50 or something which is bearish. if that happens, we risk of falling down to 59 zone in the next 12 hours. so if daily close looks bearish, like at 6240, 50, you can short it(not much please! keke), stoploss 6300(bitfinex),all the way down to maybe 59zone. right now do not open short! the coming daily close,before that, will give the answer.
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one more thing. 59 zone, might not be a good price to buy long, if it drops it will be a support, with a bounce, but we have to see how things will work out. this is like the 4th time we visit that zone, every time we visit it bounces but support becomes weaker. so don't just easily buy when that zone comes, i will update.
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i have been talking about weekly 21/50 ema cross, how dangerous it is from june, if this happens it becomes super bearish, drops heavily, just like 2014. problem is it just happened on sep 10th close. oh no. possible this week, or next week things become ugly so watch out.
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ok, nothing is so sure for now, since bulls managed to break above 6285, and 6300, it is little more certain they will try to go up. so bulls managed to break over 6287, it could now try to test 6350, 60, maybe even close above 63. so what its doing is testing the ascending triangle inside the descending wedge. so for now opening shorts->NO. it looks like it can manage to close around 63, or above,rather a short order at 6360~80 or going long after seeing the daily close can be better at this case.
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such a fake, fake, fake . bear+bull trap everywhere! we are resisted by 4hr 21ema, as you can see. 4hr ema is the first step to short term run. what it does is that the price at 4hr 21ema is too high, it consistently retraces, consolidates->bring the price down, and boom~ make a run after the moving average comes down. so 4hr little bull divergence, very very confusing to trade at the moment, if it closes above 63, but comes down at price we can try long, not so recommended. so little more observation is needed.if it closes below 6240 or 6250, it will become super bearish.
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www.tradingview.com/x/OsFSjQXm/so guys this is my plan now. VERY RISKY, but for now i decided maybe a day or two, short term swinging longs. 4hr is in downtrend, however it is bullish in indicators, i still think breaking now, at this support is little too early? yes, too many shorts too, doesn't feel right. if we go up, the tp's for longs are also entries for shorts. anyway,i still assume this needs to test more upper levels before breaking down. at least 6350zone. stoploss you can set that at 6178, so not much loss for this trade, if 6170 breaks we join short party right away.
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okay guys. 4hr does have a bull divergence, but it is not so convincing yet, it has hard times going over 4hr 21ema resistance which bands down. normally, like last time, when btc did manage to get a daily bull divergence, it surpassed 4hr ema up to 6500, but it broke down. but this time, we DO NOT HAVE that, which is so bearish. so in this case, the best way is to wait and enter short anyways, and sell that when btc finds a bull divergence, somewhere. now, alts are weak, looks attractive, but i would not buy them, because btc does not have bull divergence, also is ETH and many other alts. i am rethinking going long at 6200 zone for a swing trade, even it does come up i would think more about opening shorts upper zone. for now, we could see btc go sideways for some bit. it tries upper area with 4hr divergence, but keeps rejected by hidden bear divergence. so boring!
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so again, this is the name of the game now. it could be a 1~2week swing trade. i will update.
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www.tradingview.com/x/owTJB2cR/i am in shorts at 6280 now. so this scenario can also be possible though. now, bears does not have much power to push down so much, but bulls have no power to push up. so they can come up with a plan, that is 6120 double bottom, and make a slight divergence, challenge 4hr 21ema again. short term, they can hit 6180/6190, and come up to 6280/6300 again, but that has no divergence in daily, so eventually they NEED TO GO DOWN. at the moment, there is slight chance when btc go to 6120, daily might make a slight~~~divergence, which they might try upper levels with that. so, this is a plan if going 5900, is not always 100% possible, maybe 6120 double bottom can be also in the cards. that means if i see a bull div on daily and time frames, i will sell short at entered at 6280 and go long if that works.
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guys this is the most bearish scenario that i can come up with now. the most bullish is going to 59, and confirm that as bottom, but if that doesn't happen,with so low volume now,we need to think the the most bearish. be always prepared firsthand.
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be always prepared means that if you are trading bitmex, you need to own some shorts at least 20%, around 10x leverage, which if go down, will compensate your loss with break even. this will eventually go to at least 6100, or 5900, at the most bullish scenario, the most bearish it goes to 5.1k or below. so owning shorts now, at each resistance level is required mandatory.
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1hr, 4hr is closing below 6250 in an array. i opened short at 6230, stoploss is 6250 for now. it might just take us to below levels. we have to see. maybe early but cannot neglect charts.
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I acuallt added up shorts at 6270 i have much more ammos left for upper level.this is a swing trade from now for a week or two i cannot open long with massive bear divergence on daily even though bull div is printing on low time frames.i have heavy orders up to 6800 my liquidation is above 7k i think this would do.i will only sell short, open long when i see clear bull div again on indicators especially daily.
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Ok guys!btc went up!i added more shorts at 6430 and upper 63 levels,i will wait more it 6450 breaks up at 65~66levels. I also went long on eth,171dollars,with leverage 5 sold about 70%at 191dollars.short is a 1~2week swing trade,and my long account seems to be for scalping.lets see if btc can break 6450 and go over to 65 zone.
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okay guys. so this idea is not yet garbage, except that i don't think we will drop to 5900 so early yet. it should drop to 62 or 63 zone and go for 67 again.