Interested in your thoughts on how Covid interrupted the bull market on Bitcoin. Where would it have gone during this last year. I moved the trend line theoretically to remove covid interruption and recovery. If you try to visualize what would have happened without Covid's crash of the markets what do you get? Now to make this more difficult we have to add in the Federal Reserve massive action and congressional fiscal policy to move the problem down the road. That's a lot of money that was printed. The line I've drawn shows what could have been the natural progression of Bitcoin. Theory: With the amount of money looking for a place to land BTC should get back to it's normal trend but on steroids once the run upward starts, if it starts. The adoption and focus on the asset is far greater than in 2017 which will likely remove the spikes and round tops more like a commodity chart. I really enjoy Game Of Trades analysis on YouTube of BTC. The log channel he has is way better than this one but gives us a glimpse of BTC's channel that it has followed.
If you add Plan B's stock to flow analysis into the equation and then look at that 4T to 6T $ injection of cash you can make the case that BTC will be delayed from peek on the normal cycle but go much higher than the Stock to Flow predicts. The Chinese news has also beaten down BTC and you have to take into account that they want to limit exposure to loss of assets leaving the country. The analysis on this end says a rounding of BTC between Jan and March 2021 between $350,000 and $580,000 unless the Federal Government steps in too. I am very long at this point on BTC and related assets like HUT and MSTR calls with March expire.
If you add Plan B's stock to flow analysis into the equation and then look at that 4T to 6T $ injection of cash you can make the case that BTC will be delayed from peek on the normal cycle but go much higher than the Stock to Flow predicts. The Chinese news has also beaten down BTC and you have to take into account that they want to limit exposure to loss of assets leaving the country. The analysis on this end says a rounding of BTC between Jan and March 2021 between $350,000 and $580,000 unless the Federal Government steps in too. I am very long at this point on BTC and related assets like HUT and MSTR calls with March expire.