BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Well I just did this to post and I can't believe what I am seeing but it looks like we are due for a rally:


Dying sell volume and rising RSI on the daily here. I think we hit the wall at 7,700ish because down trend line and fib level. For 7,562ish would be resistance and bear flag still intact for the move lower from there. Otherwise look for a sell off at the red resistance line above at 8562.

Just because my brain says we shouldn't rally doesn't mean anything because the chart is telling me otherwise.

My target to enter anything would be sub 6k to go long see my other posts on this. I do not think we hit 4k. Anything with big volume below last low of 6,600 is our rocket launching pad. VOLUME WILL MARK THE BOTTOM as always.

From there we will do a 2-3x bounce. which means 6k gets us 18k and not 25-30 maybe for years. I could be wrong though it is just a moon rocket in the dark and a feeling.

This is TA technical Analysis and not TA trade advice.
Comment: Moment of truth. Target hit. These bear market rallies are intense!
Comment: Not that often these things work out how they look, but...
Comment: Look for RSI trend to direct BOLLINGER PINCH> The bollinger pinch can produce huge moves. Right now as boring as it is BTC could be winding up for breakout or breakdown.
Comment: I was worng but intersetingly looked like a sell wall above at 7745ish
bull trap
Comment: IN the John J Murphy book on TA he talks about a forgiveness period for a break out to invalidate. LOOK AT THE RSI! The last time the hourly RSI was that overbought was JAN 4 this year. and look what happened after that! Anyways either we can take a pause and go up from here, or someone starts selling and breaks the back of the advance. The lack of buyers is evident.
Comment: Great recovery for RSI to catch back up. I can't tell what way it will go. My bear eyes have deceived me a little and this happened in 2010 and I shut down my account. Right now we have 50-50 chance of going up to red line resistance 8652 at or going down to fib level at 7712. We have had 4 green days on the daily so we might be due for a red reset day and then we can look at volume RSI and the moving averages to look for next move.

For now we are exactly back to the big whale pump level and have done nothing outside that. And we need buyers. I circled this to make a point of it. We bounce off the center of bollinger band moving average in a RALLY configuration which is the first time in a long time so trend is UP for now. The 15 minute chart we failed under 20 so short term is lower according to chart.

Comment: Long term downtrend line BROKEN! I will give this one full day to confirm and break or to go back down. If we fall then this was in the margin for error and does not constitute a bull rally and we still be a bear counter trend rally. EXCITING!
Comment: I have been in coins that have not moved so much so I took log scale off, I knew something must be up! Any time you have that big of a move it is best to chek log scale fro breakouts. Long way to go.
Comment: The 20, and 50 MA crossing bearishly, RSI trend is cooling off downward, the candles are on the LOWER side of bollinger band and failed there instead of bouncing above. Looking for a pullback to fib level and THEN assess direction. Do not get caught making a long term view for BTC when we are going sideways. GET READY TO CHANGE YOUR MIND< FAST!!!
Comment: Beautiful topping tail here. RSI is so overcooked for short term needs to be a pause or pullback at resistance. If we broke out above this i would be shocked.
We haven't broken the downtrend on log scale which I am seeing in chat is more relevant to use
@jimo79, thank you! BTC has been responding in log. Updated.
well done. Wish I had seen this yesterday :/
@jimo79, I wrote it and stayed in USDT and woke up behind, then got froze out of my account and couldn't buy XVG ( see other post). SO don't beat yourself up! Bear market is all about staying alive or staying to the side when unsure so no FOMO. High volume will mark the end of BTC bear and then we can get on to Lambos haha. Seriously I don't know if we will ever go to 100k or whatever but we will triple or at least double off the bottom and that's when you have to be in!
jimo79 orbsatchel
@orbsatchel, I decided to sit back in USDT and watch this all play out and learn after I got seriously rekt in January/Feb. That said I was feeling what you were feeling and decided i'd get back in yesterday, but then just before bed there was another dip down so I decided to wait to see how it played out. Woke up to a bit of a shock! Anyway will continue to wait to see if this continues downward cause I agree with you that it looks like it just hit the top of a new bear flag channel. Maybe just wait to see if it breaks out above it before going long.
@jimo79, Yeah the basics help in these markets. GO into USDT on BTC when BTC has high RSI or bollinger band. exit opposite. Funny two nights ago I felt it coming and woke up at 4 am to nothing and then last night slept so good thinking more of the same haha... shock indeed. SUb 6k BTC is deal city. I will stay put in LTC or BTC after that not USDT
jimo79 orbsatchel
@orbsatchel, what timeframe do you go by for RSI?
@jimo79, For overall trend the daily. for entry points, i work my way down but 3,5,15 are best for me for reversals. The hourly is good to double check to make sure I am not tripping. and the bollinger pinch shows itself first on 3 and 5 . the btc 15 minute pinch is noteworthy. Bug Cheds on twitter turned me on to bollinger use and i trust it now. Check him out if you don't already! And big chonis...
@jimo79, for getting out of positions same as getting in 1 minute and 3 minute get over cooked then usually on a shitcoin i get out on a real rally RSI can go out the top several times like GVX then i use prior support lines to watch where it falls apart and match when rsi topping, finger on sell button
jimo79 orbsatchel
@orbsatchel, cheers mate. I appreciate the tips! I've tried using BB's before but they just seemed to state the obvious to me, just been reading Bug Ched's blog for more explanation.
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