The 2D candle of the Historical Volatility Percentile has been a very good indicator at seeing big multi thousand dollar moves and showing you a time frame of when you can potentially expect it.
This theory is pretty straight forward ,
When the Volatility drops under the ratio of under 15 on average after 62 days we can see plus 50% moves there is also this impulse trend-line as you can see in orange when these 50% plus moves trigger .
Right now we are at day 52 under the ratio of 15 , day 62 would put it on the week of August 24th of this month , there is high probability that this move will be around 6000 dollars putting where my previous TA suggests of ATH of 2020 at around 18000 dollars in the first week of December 2020 .
Keep in mind that this indicator doesn't show you the direction of the move only that a big move is coming so dropping 50% puts it under a 6000 dollar bitcoin and it's possible that can happen but at this moment in time highly unlikely unless another black swan event of some kind.
This theory is pretty straight forward ,
When the Volatility drops under the ratio of under 15 on average after 62 days we can see plus 50% moves there is also this impulse trend-line as you can see in orange when these 50% plus moves trigger .
Right now we are at day 52 under the ratio of 15 , day 62 would put it on the week of August 24th of this month , there is high probability that this move will be around 6000 dollars putting where my previous TA suggests of ATH of 2020 at around 18000 dollars in the first week of December 2020 .
Keep in mind that this indicator doesn't show you the direction of the move only that a big move is coming so dropping 50% puts it under a 6000 dollar bitcoin and it's possible that can happen but at this moment in time highly unlikely unless another black swan event of some kind.
Comment:
HV on impulse trend-line i would put it before Thursday for a potential massive move.
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