Currently Bitcoin is facing a 50/100 MA death cross on the weekly while inside of a big bearish pennant.
The last time this occurred was towards the end of the bear market in April of 2015. Upon the ACTUAL death cross of the 50/100 MA in 2015, Bitcoin only pierced the bottom of the support it was holding once before starting a multi-year bullrun.
The target of the weekly pennant we are consolidating in upon successful breakdown will be roughly -29% from the point of breakout. This gives us a target of around $2,352 for our next solid support should we break below the 1.618 and our current lowest low. Here is the weekly chart for reference of the death cross as well as the bear pennant we are consolidating in with targets.
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Daily view shows us multiple concerning factors corroborating the potential death cross.
First and foremost, a 4th consecutive rejection at the 50 MA- crucial resistance, and the top of the bear pennant. This is now the 4th attempt for Bitcoin to rally back above the 50 MA, with the most current attempt being a very high volume rejection.
The RSI is showing extreme weakness. Since December 17th, the RSI has printed 2 higher highs while price has now printed a MUCH lower high. This is indicative of hidden bearish divergence. This is what happened the last time divergence of this magnitude was shown in the RSI:
Since the 11th of January and after a massive rejection at overhead resistance with a bearish MACD cross, the MACD has been attempting to get back above the zero line. Continued sell pressure will cause convergence and soon signal another bearish cross.
The .618 retracement and 2nd wave of this impulse is located around $3,470. It has proved to be a very strong support since we fell January 11th. If this area is pierced and there is a downside fakeout, I suspect it should go no further than the .886 retracement located around $3,366. A confirmed break below this support with a subsequent failure to immediately rally back above will signal a short entry.
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Marked on the chart is also a bullish Elliott Wave structure count. If we are able to successfully break upwards and out of the pennant, we have a chance at invalidating this massive hidden divergence by reaching a target of no less than $4,236. According to my current possible Elliott count, we also stand a very small chance of possibly printing an inverted head and shoulders. Though, not much hope should be put behind this happening. It is only there in the event my bull count somehow plays out LITERALLY perfectly.
(Which, let's be honest...won't happen in this market lol.)
Where do YOU think Bitcoin is headed?
Please feel free to share in the comment section below :)
PS- Having issues lately with my abilities to interact with my ideas.
If it takes me forever to reply to you(if I even can) or post an update, I apologize. I am working with customer support to hopefully have this resolved soon. Thank you for stopping by, and good luck! This should be fun to watch either way ;)
The last time this occurred was towards the end of the bear market in April of 2015. Upon the ACTUAL death cross of the 50/100 MA in 2015, Bitcoin only pierced the bottom of the support it was holding once before starting a multi-year bullrun.
The target of the weekly pennant we are consolidating in upon successful breakdown will be roughly -29% from the point of breakout. This gives us a target of around $2,352 for our next solid support should we break below the 1.618 and our current lowest low. Here is the weekly chart for reference of the death cross as well as the bear pennant we are consolidating in with targets.
Daily view shows us multiple concerning factors corroborating the potential death cross.
First and foremost, a 4th consecutive rejection at the 50 MA- crucial resistance, and the top of the bear pennant. This is now the 4th attempt for Bitcoin to rally back above the 50 MA, with the most current attempt being a very high volume rejection.
The RSI is showing extreme weakness. Since December 17th, the RSI has printed 2 higher highs while price has now printed a MUCH lower high. This is indicative of hidden bearish divergence. This is what happened the last time divergence of this magnitude was shown in the RSI:
Since the 11th of January and after a massive rejection at overhead resistance with a bearish MACD cross, the MACD has been attempting to get back above the zero line. Continued sell pressure will cause convergence and soon signal another bearish cross.
The .618 retracement and 2nd wave of this impulse is located around $3,470. It has proved to be a very strong support since we fell January 11th. If this area is pierced and there is a downside fakeout, I suspect it should go no further than the .886 retracement located around $3,366. A confirmed break below this support with a subsequent failure to immediately rally back above will signal a short entry.
-------
Marked on the chart is also a bullish Elliott Wave structure count. If we are able to successfully break upwards and out of the pennant, we have a chance at invalidating this massive hidden divergence by reaching a target of no less than $4,236. According to my current possible Elliott count, we also stand a very small chance of possibly printing an inverted head and shoulders. Though, not much hope should be put behind this happening. It is only there in the event my bull count somehow plays out LITERALLY perfectly.
(Which, let's be honest...won't happen in this market lol.)
Where do YOU think Bitcoin is headed?
Please feel free to share in the comment section below :)
PS- Having issues lately with my abilities to interact with my ideas.
If it takes me forever to reply to you(if I even can) or post an update, I apologize. I am working with customer support to hopefully have this resolved soon. Thank you for stopping by, and good luck! This should be fun to watch either way ;)
Comment:
Bulls to defend*
Comment:
Bitcoin is at a very pivotal area, right before a bearish doji daily close.
What happens here may define our short-term outlook.
4h RSI resistance is now potentially being flipped to support. If so, I'd like to see a re-test of the 50MA. Failure to breach that level within the next few days will likely kick the bears back into action, however a successful breach of the 50 MA could potentially lead to a powerful rally towards $3,900+.
What happens here may define our short-term outlook.
4h RSI resistance is now potentially being flipped to support. If so, I'd like to see a re-test of the 50MA. Failure to breach that level within the next few days will likely kick the bears back into action, however a successful breach of the 50 MA could potentially lead to a powerful rally towards $3,900+.
Comment:
Interesting development here. Let's see how it plays out.
Depending on how this breaks on Finex we will likely have our answer :D
At the moment, it actually doesn't look too bad.
The hourly is above the 100 MA soon to retest for support.
Depending on how this breaks on Finex we will likely have our answer :D
At the moment, it actually doesn't look too bad.
The hourly is above the 100 MA soon to retest for support.
Comment:
We have a break of this triangle! This could get interesting!
I'd long this on a low position size just in case, with high leverage.
Teeny lil bit
Teeny lil bit
Comment:
Not looking promising. Would of been stopped out already on high lev xD
Hence why a TEENY lil bit!
Hence why a TEENY lil bit!
Comment:
An attempt was made here to regain support after falling out of the rising symmetrical triangle.
The 4h RSI however is still bullish, and above major resistance now flipped support.
Where this goes is anyones guess. The market is making it very difficult to gague where price will go next.
Where this goes is anyones guess. The market is making it very difficult to gague where price will go next.
Comment:
Bitstamp is showing a descending triangle breakout to the downside, with a subsequent successful rally back into the triangle which has now failed again.
Comment:
An interesting development here:
We are facing a bearish MACD cross, as well as a potential fall from 60 RSI. 60 RSI is a historic turnaround point for bears to defend.