linebands

BTC Long, breakout to 50k

Long
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
A bullish a-e triangle has formed giving us the potential of a long trade setup to enter once the price hits the lower trend line one more time.
I'm aiming for a 49.5k target for taking profit.
Since the e target on previous triangles has had fakeouts recently, I suggest a stop loss near 47k .

Though the previous wick hitting the B target which got reject hard is a bit concerning, along with multiple bearish div . forming on the 30m. chart.

Bids in the 45k region have been reduced, potentially suggesting a lack of hope of ever reaching 45k.
Comment: Stop loss hit, bears took control after bearish div. on d target, will reenter in case of a fakeout at 47.6k and stop loss at 46.7k
Trade active: Trade is active. But will long the dips along 47k and short the tops near the upper trendline/48k. I believe the lower trendline on this idea is no longer valid and will create and use one from the low at 46.7k to the recent low at 47.1k. This new trendline should be support, with a completed a-wave, moving onto b on the upper trendline.

As it stands there are more bearish div. then bullish ones on the 30 min. candle, but I believe we will crab for a while zig-zagging between 48k and 47k, until a sudden candle to 50k or 51k, with a possible rejection back down to 30k. 50k is hard resistance with asks topping out to 100 BTC. Would def. short it at 50k, with a stop loss near 51k after the breakout.

I suspect the e target to be around 47.5k, from which I will then long to 49.5k
Comment: Next long opportunity at 47.4k
Comment: More asks in the 50.5k region, will set a short there to reduce % stop loss. New stop loss at 52.1k for this short. Seeing more bull div. on hourly candles depending on the indicator of use, conditions are neutral. Expect a 5k move within the week.

In case of lower trendline no longer acting as support, 43.6k-45k could be another long opportunity.
Comment: Bids pulled off from 38k-40k region (on Bitfinex) that previously acted as support back when BTC revisited 40k prior to the giga pump. It is dangerous if no support shows up after this rejection near 48k-50k at that bid region.
Could suggest light support or whales getting smarter removing limits from new Heatmap volume analysis charts being publicly available.
Comment: Strong 49k resistance. Lets see if it'll get rejected... followed by 50k. Profits taken at 48.8k.
Comment: Next long opportunity at 48k-48.1k for trendline retest. Will use profits for reentry. Else, will short at 49.9k instead of 50.5k if we keep going up.
Comment: If we are repeating the same fractal pattern of the global highs of 64k to 30k with the local high at 52k down to 40k, the 0.5 fib support of 30k to 52k (40k), transferred over to this rally would make the 0.5 fib retracement of 40k to 49k, ~44k-45k.

Just speculation, but could be more plausible as bearish div.s form on higher time frams over the 2 hour and more bids get presented at 45k.
Comment: 2 hour bearish div. just printed. If it closes and passes over to the 4 hour candle, might enter a short near ~49k.
Note, 49k also lands perfect as its fib extension target slightly over the 1.618 from 48.5k to 47.1k similar to the fractal from 41k to 28k between mid-June and mid-July.
Comment: Went away for a quick cat nap, missed out on a perfect short. 2 hour closed with bear div. and will enter short soon if 48k resistance from the upper trendline cant be pierced within the next 2 hours.
Comment: Trading halted in China + Asc. broadening wedge likely forming. Will market short if we fall under 47.4k.
Trade closed manually: Closed long at 48.5k, 0.618 fib of local high to recent bottom.
Trade active: Open short limit at 48.8k, 1.618 fib extension of 48.3k to 47.3k
Comment: Adjusted short limit to 49.1k, just slightly below the large region of asks at 49.3k. Matches well with a potential elliot wave 5 target, with the impulse trend starting anew from 47.4k.
Trade active: Trend change to bearish capitulation, Open limit long at 46.9k.
Trade active: Secondary open limit long at 45.3k
Comment: tp limit long from 46.9k at 47.5k
Trade closed manually: closed limit long from 46.9k
Trade closed manually: closed short from 48.8l, reopen short limit at 50k
Comment: Short at 48.8k? Div forming at 5min.
Trade active: Opened market short at div near 48.8k set a tight sl jic
Trade closed manually: closed short from 48.8k at 48.6k
Comment: reenter market short at 48.6k. sl at 49.1k
Trade active: My strategy atm to enter quick shorts are based on bearish standard candlesticks alongside any bearish div. on the minute time frames. The trend could very well change bullish to 50k within the day if.

Atm I believe we're in wave 2, with an impulse trend from the recent lows of 46.9k.

Short trade is active.
Trade closed manually: Short closed at 48.3. Long market at 48.4k Wave 3?
Trade active: bearish div. on 5min. short open via market at 49k.
Trade closed: stop reached: Stop loss hit on short from 49k.
Trade active: long limit at 48.9k- possible wave 4 target.
Trade active: closed limit went market at 49.4k, noticing many asks on the way up, wave 5 is now in progress, looking at 50k to exit and place shorts.
Comment: Bearish div's rising up to hourly candles (2 hour confirmed). on wave 5 and between local highs since the current high overtook the previous one. Bearish candles on the 5min. 48.9k is sl. If more bearish 5min. candles appear, will go short as this bull trend could be a corrective one.

Note, Standard markets are going under fire atm and where nearing closing. The next few hours are critical to determining if BTC will be the primary commodity to hedge against the corrective trends onto equities.
Trade closed: stop reached: Long trade stopped out at 48.8k, entered short at 49.3k
Trade active: closed short at 49.3k, opened long at same price. looking for bearish div. and to take out the local short-term highs of 49.5k and 49.k on the 5min. candle
Trade closed: target reached: Closed long trade. I genuinely believe this might be the top for now. Did not reach 50k exactly, but its good enough. Seeing a lot of asks in the 50k range, and momentum decreasing. Whales could use negative sentiment news media events to their advantage to increase sell pressure.