Don't take this too seriously, it's just a possibility. I'm NOT trying to predict the market here, folks. I just want to point this out as a warning of something that could POSSIBLY happen.
Look at where we are right now, pushing towards $12k, and look back to the last high point on the somewhat-macro level. The big blue arrows will help you see what I'm referring to. If the current run doesn't take out that last high of about $12,075, we could be in for a drop just like the one we saw on the day after that peak. Volatility is in, folks. We are not in a side banding zone. So that means we have to take into account the possibility of major downward moves along with these pumps we are seeing.
So what about supporting evidence?
First off is the 1-hour stochastic. We are coming off of a double-hump camel top in the overbought zone, and currently the fast line is about to cross over the slow line and form another hump up over the 80% boundary. That could push us up to 12k. But the next stochastic move is the cycle DOWN. We are spending quite a bit of time at the peak cycle right now. It can't last forever. If you flip to the 1-day chart, it's the same. We are at a stochastic peak, but well within the overbought zone on a single hump that looks like it has a little bit more of a run left in it. Whenever these cycles complete, price usually corrects.
Second, the volume profile does support a possible reversal. We are trading above the POC (point of control) of $11,741, and there is a big node underneath at $11,410 that could possibly attract the price line. There's not much volume up above 12k, so we have no prior action that could pull the price up and hold it. Take that with a grain of salt though, because a major move will CREATE a new cluster on the volume profile.
Third, the OBV is still on an overall decline since August. Those big massive institutional purchases that made the news this month have not even come close to pulling up the overall trend to where we were back in August. What this tells me is that the hype we are hearing from all the big mouths on YouTube is far greater than the actual institutional buying that is going on.
Fourth and foremost, the alts are bleeding. Just in my observation over the years, I've noticed that Litecoin tends to lead Bitcoin. So does Ethereum. Neither LTC nor ETH have experienced the same bullish pump that Bitcoin has printed in the last 48 hours. But they actually did the reverse, printing several red candles in what looks like a correction move.
We all know that Bitcoin does exactly what it wants to do, and it could very well blast off after tipping the 12k point. Of course a move eclipsing the 14k point would be all the evidence we need that the party has started. But I'm just careful whenever the great majority of people seem to think this is "THEE" move. It's best to consider ALL possibilities, and not get caught up in the FOMO wave. I'm curious to know what you think about this. I'm very open to being convinced or swayed. Am I seeing this wrong, or are we about to have the "October Surprise" correction before the overall bull market truly begins next month?
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro
Look at where we are right now, pushing towards $12k, and look back to the last high point on the somewhat-macro level. The big blue arrows will help you see what I'm referring to. If the current run doesn't take out that last high of about $12,075, we could be in for a drop just like the one we saw on the day after that peak. Volatility is in, folks. We are not in a side banding zone. So that means we have to take into account the possibility of major downward moves along with these pumps we are seeing.
So what about supporting evidence?
First off is the 1-hour stochastic. We are coming off of a double-hump camel top in the overbought zone, and currently the fast line is about to cross over the slow line and form another hump up over the 80% boundary. That could push us up to 12k. But the next stochastic move is the cycle DOWN. We are spending quite a bit of time at the peak cycle right now. It can't last forever. If you flip to the 1-day chart, it's the same. We are at a stochastic peak, but well within the overbought zone on a single hump that looks like it has a little bit more of a run left in it. Whenever these cycles complete, price usually corrects.
Second, the volume profile does support a possible reversal. We are trading above the POC (point of control) of $11,741, and there is a big node underneath at $11,410 that could possibly attract the price line. There's not much volume up above 12k, so we have no prior action that could pull the price up and hold it. Take that with a grain of salt though, because a major move will CREATE a new cluster on the volume profile.
Third, the OBV is still on an overall decline since August. Those big massive institutional purchases that made the news this month have not even come close to pulling up the overall trend to where we were back in August. What this tells me is that the hype we are hearing from all the big mouths on YouTube is far greater than the actual institutional buying that is going on.
Fourth and foremost, the alts are bleeding. Just in my observation over the years, I've noticed that Litecoin tends to lead Bitcoin. So does Ethereum. Neither LTC nor ETH have experienced the same bullish pump that Bitcoin has printed in the last 48 hours. But they actually did the reverse, printing several red candles in what looks like a correction move.
We all know that Bitcoin does exactly what it wants to do, and it could very well blast off after tipping the 12k point. Of course a move eclipsing the 14k point would be all the evidence we need that the party has started. But I'm just careful whenever the great majority of people seem to think this is "THEE" move. It's best to consider ALL possibilities, and not get caught up in the FOMO wave. I'm curious to know what you think about this. I'm very open to being convinced or swayed. Am I seeing this wrong, or are we about to have the "October Surprise" correction before the overall bull market truly begins next month?
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro