This is a major update to my previous charts.
I'll start off by saying that like most traders I go back and forth on my analysis quite a bit, sometimes bullish calls turns to bearish ones in a matter of days etc. Trading is hard and even when you've developed your skills to the point of being able to identify breakout points correctly, the direction it will take is a gamble. Sometimes you're right, sometimes not, then you move on to the next conflict point in the chart.
Well, I'm trying something a little different today. I've combed through my previous charts, ones that I've published and others that I haven't and gave the reasons/train of thoughts that led to the creation of each one in a big sort of meta-review. That along with some really interesting pieces of data that have been floating around lately, I began to see the picture a bit more holistically. Rather than focusing mostly on the details that are the most important to whatever critical juncture on the chart I was trying to assess at the moment. The process led to a fuzzy outline of a big picture view from which I could zoom in. I hope that this will lead to charts that are more accurate, not only for the direction of the price movement but also the timing.
Ok, moving on to the chart. It may not be entirely apparent but the pattern shown the chart is basically an exact copy of the ones shown in the charts below. The pattern itself is a fractal pattern that I believe will show up on the chart in one form or another. I have a number of different reasons for believing that but for the purposes of creating the current chart, the main reason I'm sticking with is the up down in price we just had in between 3400 and 3600, particularly the quick and drastic move down to 3400, only to wick back up. That move is depicted in the charts below because the fractal pattern included a similar one. I simply used relative indicators, in this case the 50EMA on the 4hr and the Levels and Zones Indicator, to determine where the top and the bottom of that move would be given the conditions created by previous price movements.
If that tid-bit isn't enough to convince you of the fractal pattern's utility then I'll also share that the pattern depicted in the chart below is also derived from the same fractal pattern, using relative resistance and support levels to determine how the pattern should overlay. As you can see, I was off on calling the bottom by about $100, consequently the pattern that actually shows up on the chart lags the pattern predicted by about a week. If the pattern had started at the correct price/point in time, it would have been a point for point match for the last few months.
But what about the bear market? And calls from the experts that we will dip further? Well, I concede that it's still a possibility. However, the following pieces of evidence have convinced me that the market has found a bottom. First, the chart that I created less than a week before the drop from 6k:
Aside from the reasoning shown on the chart, there was a great deal of thought and review of historical chart data to come up with the possible stopping points/major (invisible at the time of chart creation) trend lines that would act as a barrier against further declines. The fact that all of the price movements for the past two months center on the purple trend line as THE piece of real estate being fought over (whether anyone realizes that or not) gives me confidence that should we definitely make it above the purple trend line then the bear market is over.
And for me personally, the article linked to below sealed the deal in making the determination that the price will indeed come back up over the purple line:
medium.com/@renato_s...m-is-in-35ff1e2b9403
The most convincing argument? The MVRV's eventual convergence to 1. Something that would be critical if the big picture view I have in my head were to become a reality.
Now for the details of the chart:
We will focus on the daily time frame - although you may want to switch to the 4hr/1hr or even smaller time frames at the points in the chart where you see a rocket ship. In the immediate term, the 20 day MA will serve as the barrier. We're likely to hit this barrier at least twice. The first time expect the price to get close to or barely touch the 20MA before getting rejected, relatively harshly. The second time you should expect to see the price wick a tiny amount above the 20MA before getting rejected again. You can see that there are 2 red rocket ships on the chart at the point of these rejections. The rockets ships are actually meant to depict the points on the chart where a quick movement in price is expected - red for down, green for up. Obviously there are a number of different reasons that might be important information to have, only one of which being the use of leverage and calculation of risk/reward for whatever trade setup you plan on using.
As we move further, the movement of the price is in part based on the projected location of the following moving averages: 20MA, 200MA, 50EMA, 100EMA. Obviously a lot of reasons those could have been selected but in this particular case, it was because my projections of their movement most closely coincided with the fractal pattern I described earlier. And as may be obvious, this significantly lengthened the time for reaching the target, when compared to the original "Test of.." charts.
What I felt were the most significant details for particularly enticing trade setups, I've written into the chart. The dotted curves are my projections of the moving averages - meaning that trade setups will have to be made in conjunction with the actual movement, even if the pattern is more or less matching the one shown.
This will be my last chart for this half of the year. I'll be starting a telegram group soon where details can be discussed as we move forward. I'll put a link up in the comments. Happy 2019!
I'll start off by saying that like most traders I go back and forth on my analysis quite a bit, sometimes bullish calls turns to bearish ones in a matter of days etc. Trading is hard and even when you've developed your skills to the point of being able to identify breakout points correctly, the direction it will take is a gamble. Sometimes you're right, sometimes not, then you move on to the next conflict point in the chart.
Well, I'm trying something a little different today. I've combed through my previous charts, ones that I've published and others that I haven't and gave the reasons/train of thoughts that led to the creation of each one in a big sort of meta-review. That along with some really interesting pieces of data that have been floating around lately, I began to see the picture a bit more holistically. Rather than focusing mostly on the details that are the most important to whatever critical juncture on the chart I was trying to assess at the moment. The process led to a fuzzy outline of a big picture view from which I could zoom in. I hope that this will lead to charts that are more accurate, not only for the direction of the price movement but also the timing.
Ok, moving on to the chart. It may not be entirely apparent but the pattern shown the chart is basically an exact copy of the ones shown in the charts below. The pattern itself is a fractal pattern that I believe will show up on the chart in one form or another. I have a number of different reasons for believing that but for the purposes of creating the current chart, the main reason I'm sticking with is the up down in price we just had in between 3400 and 3600, particularly the quick and drastic move down to 3400, only to wick back up. That move is depicted in the charts below because the fractal pattern included a similar one. I simply used relative indicators, in this case the 50EMA on the 4hr and the Levels and Zones Indicator, to determine where the top and the bottom of that move would be given the conditions created by previous price movements.
If that tid-bit isn't enough to convince you of the fractal pattern's utility then I'll also share that the pattern depicted in the chart below is also derived from the same fractal pattern, using relative resistance and support levels to determine how the pattern should overlay. As you can see, I was off on calling the bottom by about $100, consequently the pattern that actually shows up on the chart lags the pattern predicted by about a week. If the pattern had started at the correct price/point in time, it would have been a point for point match for the last few months.
But what about the bear market? And calls from the experts that we will dip further? Well, I concede that it's still a possibility. However, the following pieces of evidence have convinced me that the market has found a bottom. First, the chart that I created less than a week before the drop from 6k:
Aside from the reasoning shown on the chart, there was a great deal of thought and review of historical chart data to come up with the possible stopping points/major (invisible at the time of chart creation) trend lines that would act as a barrier against further declines. The fact that all of the price movements for the past two months center on the purple trend line as THE piece of real estate being fought over (whether anyone realizes that or not) gives me confidence that should we definitely make it above the purple trend line then the bear market is over.
And for me personally, the article linked to below sealed the deal in making the determination that the price will indeed come back up over the purple line:
medium.com/@renato_s...m-is-in-35ff1e2b9403
The most convincing argument? The MVRV's eventual convergence to 1. Something that would be critical if the big picture view I have in my head were to become a reality.
Now for the details of the chart:
We will focus on the daily time frame - although you may want to switch to the 4hr/1hr or even smaller time frames at the points in the chart where you see a rocket ship. In the immediate term, the 20 day MA will serve as the barrier. We're likely to hit this barrier at least twice. The first time expect the price to get close to or barely touch the 20MA before getting rejected, relatively harshly. The second time you should expect to see the price wick a tiny amount above the 20MA before getting rejected again. You can see that there are 2 red rocket ships on the chart at the point of these rejections. The rockets ships are actually meant to depict the points on the chart where a quick movement in price is expected - red for down, green for up. Obviously there are a number of different reasons that might be important information to have, only one of which being the use of leverage and calculation of risk/reward for whatever trade setup you plan on using.
As we move further, the movement of the price is in part based on the projected location of the following moving averages: 20MA, 200MA, 50EMA, 100EMA. Obviously a lot of reasons those could have been selected but in this particular case, it was because my projections of their movement most closely coincided with the fractal pattern I described earlier. And as may be obvious, this significantly lengthened the time for reaching the target, when compared to the original "Test of.." charts.
What I felt were the most significant details for particularly enticing trade setups, I've written into the chart. The dotted curves are my projections of the moving averages - meaning that trade setups will have to be made in conjunction with the actual movement, even if the pattern is more or less matching the one shown.
This will be my last chart for this half of the year. I'll be starting a telegram group soon where details can be discussed as we move forward. I'll put a link up in the comments. Happy 2019!
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Updated timeline
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Each of the targets above should be quick punctuated movements followed by sideways action. Each could be considered a short squeeze unto themselves.
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we are about to complete successive Inv HS patterns at different time frames to kick off the short squeeze. First on the 5min chart
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15min chart
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1 hr
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4hr
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all coming together to look something like this
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don't say i didn't warn ya
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with explanation...
t.me/joinchat/J_KLoBRpcqJIrgFbh_ohOA