Rising wedge breakdown + retest

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
It couldn't be more obvious. But sometimes the composite man will make it seem obvious just to rekt everyone later, so trade carefully.

With the current market status (a parabollic move that got halted with CME futures launch) and all the uncertainity going down seems the only path forward.

The rising wedge was a text book one.

  • Gets built straight from the bottom of a sharp move down
  • Only goes as high as 61.8% retracement of the move down
  • Descending volume on wedge
  • Increasing volume on breakdown
  • Breakdown at 70% of the complete structure

Other technichals supporting the move down:

  • 3d, 6h and 1h Macd bearish crossover
  • 4h, 6h and 1d StochRSI bearish crossover
  • RSI in every meaningful TF is reseted and with room to go down
  • High TF's head and shoulders
  • Inability to bounce clearly

And last but not least lets recapitulate bear fundamentals:

  • Tether printing machine
  • Bitfinex wash trading machine
  • Korea crackdown on bitcoin
  • Institutional investors lack of interest in bitcoin regulated derivatives
  • High transaction fees (median fee per tx reached and ATH over $30)
Comment: That was really close to be stopped.
I took profit of what seems a bull trap to increase my short size above 16k.
My stop still remains over 17k.
Comment: Covered here (14300) what i added above 16k. Posting chart soon.
Comment: For those that think my bearishness makes me blind, this is for you: (long 13800 x20 leverage 13200 liquidation)
Covered with over 100% profit :joy: I'm a crazy motherfucker hahahahahahaha
Okay now lets think about reloading shorts. The chart is coming but doing so many things at the same time.
Comment: Sorry for the massive amount of lines. i will clean it before publishing it as an idea, but they were needed to build the chart. I wont publish it as an idea until we break down. but this is the new wedge and the new targets.

Comment: The wedge keeps HODLING. He knows.

Breakdown will eventually happen it is just too soon.
Comment: It seems bitcoin wanted so bad to break down. First 4h close below the wedge just happened. Still hodling the original short but not going to add in this breakdown yet. will do it after a succesful retest if there is any.
Comment: The retest would be this. But im not opening more shorts yet, i still feel this was just a fakeout in low tfs and Daily Will close inside the wedge again
Comment: As expected the daily closed again inside the wedge

Let's see what happens in the next hours. But i bet we will confirm the fakeout and proceed to the last phase of the bitcoin "back to normal" bull trap.
At this point i dont think we are going to have any bounce prior 10k
Comment: And this would be a potential playout
Comment: Bitcoin trying to breakup.
Let's see if we find a bit of volume soon
Comment: And here came a bit of volume.
Comment: Most bearish scenario i can dream of
Comment: I keep riding this, but going to probably keep my movements updated in here
Comment: Wedge target 1, REACHED
Comment: Already in nice short are.
There might be another push up to the breakdown level that wasn't reached yesterday night.
I have some short orders in the higher end of the short area ready to get filled if there is a wave up left.
Comment: Target 2 reached

I'm closing around here for now.
Trade closed: target reached: All targets reached and price bounced.
Looking for new shorts in the 10.9k-12.4k
dont you see any pull back now at 10300 area? Berish div is forming in 15, 1h time frame. and we have this extended move up from 6k to 10k, around 80%, some pull back would be good.
4k in February?
bagofXMR cardan6006
@cardan6006, I'm expeting somekind of bull trap before the Tether scam finally unleashes. Probablt by the very end of February or the begining of March we will be making new lows. Right now we are near the bottom.
+1 Reply
@bagofXMR hey there are 2 wave patterns which you have published. In post "A good analisys on btcusd uncertain future" you say BTC could reach 7829 levels and much further down before Feb , In this current post you have sideways movement of BTC between 13.5k-11k. Which one do you think has more probability ?
bagofXMR avinashpolepally
@avinashpolepally, It all depends on the effect of the first set of CME futures contracts that is finising trading the 26th and settling the 30th. It personally makes sense to me to get choppy around here, to screw the max amount of traders before resuming move, regardless of it being up or down.
But if we are facing a bubble burst or there is any black swan event (eg. failure of Tether/Bitfinex or South Korea/UK/EU/USA regulators crackdown) it could be quicker than expected.
I dont think timing the drop is easy so I am already loaded on shorts. I will go through to any necessary choppiness until we eventually break hopefully down.
bagofXMR avinashpolepally
@avinashpolepally, BTW, in general my handmade lines, like the black line you are talking about are nothing but a try to express a direction and in no way i expect the price to follow them exactly, only to follow the "idea" behind them. Just in case there was any doubt.
And if you want to see how this black line is looking in a higher tf, check this

So this is just a guess that we will have a bit of sidelines in here before going into panic/blood mode again.
@bagofXMR I see target 1 in your graph, What is target 2 ? Also what are you expecting here ? 7k levels or 8.5k levels ?
How'd you get your targets?
bagofXMR jimmy_
@jimmy_, a mix of obvious horizontal supports, trendlines, fibonacci levels, moving averages and theorical targets of well know structures
May be bitfinex is trying to revert the downtrend, i don't see the same volume on bmex nor bstamp. Also i see the downtrend broken and 4h macd crossing bullish so i think it can go higher before a resume of the downtrend, care

+1 Reply
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