Talk about being a bunch of little girls. If I offended you ohh well, I don't care about cupcakes and hot chocolate, I'm a donut and coffee guy myself. I never seen so much drama in a market, "Moon Shot to 20-30-60k" and then like someone flipped a switch, "Bear market back to 5k". HUH? Its like a bunch of little girls on a playground choosing their new friend.
Still Consolidating Nothing Changed:
We are simply in a consolidation cycle. Sure we can pullback further to 9k or 8500 even, but that does not change the premise we are consolidating in a broader bull market. Now IF we take out 9k or more importantly 7500 then OK, we may be in a broader corrective cycle, but HELLO! We are a long ways from Kansas people.
I am leaning more towards this is a flushing out of late longs. You know those that bought the rocket ships at 12k and are now realizing they bought into the FOMO? The ones that are easily swayed like a leaf in the wind.
I'm sure the trolls, that have nearly been extinct from my posts, will be out in full force soon, but we are no where near a bear market. Take off your slippers and put on some boots, or better yet, take off those Mickey Mouse shades and put on some glasses.
Broader Trend:
We are just starting to test the broader trend line, and it is still bullish. The market is playing out as we anticipated with a broad consolidation. As we mentioned over the last couple weeks, this can play out for weeks or months. I personally am leaning towards we are near the end, but my crystal ball is still in the shop.
Broader 5th wave correction cycles are generally where those in from better prices take some profits off the table. Of course those in from higher prices, like 7-9k get cold feet, listen to the bi-polar chart analysts and sell out. Those that were really late to the dance, realize "crap I once again bought the FOMO" and exit stage right.
This type of order flow, from various strategies, and players in at different levels, is what causes a broader consolidation or correction.
Probability vs Possibility:
Technically we can pullback to 3500 and still be in a bull market. Do you really think we are going to see those levels again? Most likely not! Possible but not probable. This is where people get confused.
Anything is possible, but it does not mean it is probable. There is a possibility I hit the lottery Wednesday night but it is not probable. Initial resistance was at 9700 or the 38.2% retrace of the overall swing. Resistance often becomes support once it is taken out. Well Bitcoin is finding support at 9700 where sell order are quickly absorbed.
This can play out as a double bottom and a signal to go long. It is still early, but so far it is attempting to hold 10k. It is possible, and somewhat probable, that we push lower to 8500. Like getting to yell Bingo on Saturday night. This is a reasonable area that would definitely shake out weak hands, and would technically terminate into wave 4, which is still possible.
It does not have to though. There is a lot of resistance here and it takes time for the market to build up support to break through these areas. What we look for is accumulation, and the longer the price remains above previous resistance now current support, the more participants will feel safe to buy in.
This is why we wait, and not guess. The question is do you think people are wanting to buy in, or get out? I have several friends that missed this leg higher, and are now in the camp "I want to buy, but I need to see it pullback first".
Float
Of course when it does, they won't buy, they will get scared feet. Takes out 13k, they will finally succumb to the market and buy. This is the fuel that will take us to the next ATH, and the fact many just simply do not sell. This lowers the available float in the market.
Just ask yourself, do you have more Bitcoin now then at the first of the year or less? That is the float being removed from the market and this IS important to understand.
Tomorrow we could be pushing through 11,200 and once again, we will see "Blue Origin" on charts. "To the Moon and beyond", and they will have been wrong because of the mystery whales. Has nothing to do with their BiPolar charting.
The same gurus that were shorting at 9k and going long at 11-12 are now the same calling for a capitulation into the Abyss. They will be the ones buying at 15k. Always right, yet always somehow on the wrong side of the trade. HMMM?
Emotions and the Eternal Pessimist:
Maybe you are feeling we are heading to 5k also. However when have your feelings ever had you making a rational decision? Rationally the market has been playing out as a consolidation should. As long as it is going as it should, why would you change your view?
Sure it can spike lower and suck in shorts, (quite possible), but all indicators point to a ranging market. Its like the eternal pessimist that is always thinking something will go wrong, even when everything is going as planned. Yeah those guys are fun to hang out with, or better yet work with.
Of course this may change, and taking out 8500 would have us stepping back, just like we stepped back at 13k. Currently there is no evidence yet for us change our position. This is why it is important to not base broader moves on a 2-4 hour chart with ABCDE.....FGHIJ.... triangle that formed randomly.
These shorter term time frames provide no perspective into the broader picture, no matter what connect the dot pattern you can draw. Actually I saw a head and shoulders pattern in the clouds yesterday, hmmmm maybe it will rain?
So quit acting like a bunch of girly girls. As long as the market is staying within the boundaries there is no reason to expect we are going to swing to 5k any time soon. Again if the evidence shows otherwise in the near future we will adapt. Until that happens, these types of calls are simply click bait calls looking for attention.
For those offended, well just remember the markets are cruel, there are no safe spaces here, the cup and handle pattern does not contain hot chocolate, and your momma won't return your losses handing you a participation trophy and cupcake for trying. The least of your problems in life, if you are offended, is Bitcoin moving lower!
Still Consolidating Nothing Changed:
We are simply in a consolidation cycle. Sure we can pullback further to 9k or 8500 even, but that does not change the premise we are consolidating in a broader bull market. Now IF we take out 9k or more importantly 7500 then OK, we may be in a broader corrective cycle, but HELLO! We are a long ways from Kansas people.
I am leaning more towards this is a flushing out of late longs. You know those that bought the rocket ships at 12k and are now realizing they bought into the FOMO? The ones that are easily swayed like a leaf in the wind.
I'm sure the trolls, that have nearly been extinct from my posts, will be out in full force soon, but we are no where near a bear market. Take off your slippers and put on some boots, or better yet, take off those Mickey Mouse shades and put on some glasses.
Broader Trend:
We are just starting to test the broader trend line, and it is still bullish. The market is playing out as we anticipated with a broad consolidation. As we mentioned over the last couple weeks, this can play out for weeks or months. I personally am leaning towards we are near the end, but my crystal ball is still in the shop.
Broader 5th wave correction cycles are generally where those in from better prices take some profits off the table. Of course those in from higher prices, like 7-9k get cold feet, listen to the bi-polar chart analysts and sell out. Those that were really late to the dance, realize "crap I once again bought the FOMO" and exit stage right.
This type of order flow, from various strategies, and players in at different levels, is what causes a broader consolidation or correction.
Probability vs Possibility:
Technically we can pullback to 3500 and still be in a bull market. Do you really think we are going to see those levels again? Most likely not! Possible but not probable. This is where people get confused.
Anything is possible, but it does not mean it is probable. There is a possibility I hit the lottery Wednesday night but it is not probable. Initial resistance was at 9700 or the 38.2% retrace of the overall swing. Resistance often becomes support once it is taken out. Well Bitcoin is finding support at 9700 where sell order are quickly absorbed.
This can play out as a double bottom and a signal to go long. It is still early, but so far it is attempting to hold 10k. It is possible, and somewhat probable, that we push lower to 8500. Like getting to yell Bingo on Saturday night. This is a reasonable area that would definitely shake out weak hands, and would technically terminate into wave 4, which is still possible.
It does not have to though. There is a lot of resistance here and it takes time for the market to build up support to break through these areas. What we look for is accumulation, and the longer the price remains above previous resistance now current support, the more participants will feel safe to buy in.
This is why we wait, and not guess. The question is do you think people are wanting to buy in, or get out? I have several friends that missed this leg higher, and are now in the camp "I want to buy, but I need to see it pullback first".
Float
Of course when it does, they won't buy, they will get scared feet. Takes out 13k, they will finally succumb to the market and buy. This is the fuel that will take us to the next ATH, and the fact many just simply do not sell. This lowers the available float in the market.
Just ask yourself, do you have more Bitcoin now then at the first of the year or less? That is the float being removed from the market and this IS important to understand.
Tomorrow we could be pushing through 11,200 and once again, we will see "Blue Origin" on charts. "To the Moon and beyond", and they will have been wrong because of the mystery whales. Has nothing to do with their BiPolar charting.
The same gurus that were shorting at 9k and going long at 11-12 are now the same calling for a capitulation into the Abyss. They will be the ones buying at 15k. Always right, yet always somehow on the wrong side of the trade. HMMM?
Emotions and the Eternal Pessimist:
Maybe you are feeling we are heading to 5k also. However when have your feelings ever had you making a rational decision? Rationally the market has been playing out as a consolidation should. As long as it is going as it should, why would you change your view?
Sure it can spike lower and suck in shorts, (quite possible), but all indicators point to a ranging market. Its like the eternal pessimist that is always thinking something will go wrong, even when everything is going as planned. Yeah those guys are fun to hang out with, or better yet work with.
Of course this may change, and taking out 8500 would have us stepping back, just like we stepped back at 13k. Currently there is no evidence yet for us change our position. This is why it is important to not base broader moves on a 2-4 hour chart with ABCDE.....FGHIJ.... triangle that formed randomly.
These shorter term time frames provide no perspective into the broader picture, no matter what connect the dot pattern you can draw. Actually I saw a head and shoulders pattern in the clouds yesterday, hmmmm maybe it will rain?
So quit acting like a bunch of girly girls. As long as the market is staying within the boundaries there is no reason to expect we are going to swing to 5k any time soon. Again if the evidence shows otherwise in the near future we will adapt. Until that happens, these types of calls are simply click bait calls looking for attention.
For those offended, well just remember the markets are cruel, there are no safe spaces here, the cup and handle pattern does not contain hot chocolate, and your momma won't return your losses handing you a participation trophy and cupcake for trying. The least of your problems in life, if you are offended, is Bitcoin moving lower!
