My last BTC analysis was pretty great, we found a bounce from $3,390 and we almost have touched the first target which was the $3,500.
Currently, I can say that the BTC price probably goes higher from here (at $3,400) and it will achieve the first target $3,500.
Altcoins are on the good shape and they react nicely with this BTC current small movement upwards.
Current scenario:
The price goes into the strong crossing area. There is a recent short-term higher high (orange line), there is the round number $3,500 which works as a resistance AND there is a Falling Wedge upper trendline which works also as resistance.
Those three price action criteria make a crossing area and You should already know that those crossing areas are really hard to beat, especially when we are on the downtrend and especially when we want to go higher from heavy resistance levels.
If the price reaches into the light blue "circle"/area then this area is a decision price zone for short- or even mid-term perspective.
To be said, IF the current 4H candle gets a close below the blue counter trendline (small up-trendline below the price) then it will probably take a bit longer to reach into the $3,500 OR even this could be a sell setup but I'll start to make updates if this counter trendline breaks.
Bullish Breakout
Bullish breakout would be confirmed if we get a nice 4H candle close above all levels:
1. A candle close above orange resistance line - this line is the recent short-term higher high. If we close higher than this then we would be sure that the market structure is still on the short-term uptrend and nice to see some consistency from buyers which is confirmed with higher high.
2. A candle close above the Falling Wedge upper trendline - Falling Wedge is a bullish chart pattern. If we get a candle close above the upper trendline then we have confirmed the breakout and the bullish chart pattern should start to work. The breakout is confirmed with new short-term higher high (previous point) and if there are more breakout confirmations then the breakout setup is even stronger! That is not all...
3. A candle close above the semi-round number $3,500 - This price level has worked multiple times as a strong support level and now it becomes resistance. So, multiple times worked as support and now becomes resistance?! plus the other criteria on this level, uuuhh...looks like this light blue area is super strong resistance area but, but we are on the bullish confirmation topic and IF we get also a 4H candle close above the $3,500 then we have three breakout confirmations and the price is ready to go higher and the next target would be $3,657 which is mid-term lower high peak.
Summary: To be bullish we have to get all those breakout confirmations, yes all! Example: if we get two breakout confirmations, a new short-term higher high and a breakout from Falling Wedge, then the price area between breakout and $3,500 is so tiny that we can't make any bigger assumption because we don't have a breakout confirmation from strong area which is worked multiple times as a "price bouncer". So, wait for a 4H candle close above the $3,500. It will be a bullish confirmation!
The bearish scenario in the light blue area:
As said, the area which is inside the "circle" is very strong and if we add here one good sentence: "the trend is your friend", then this could be a pretty massive Sell setup but definitely I'll wait for a bearish candlestick pattern which will be another great bearish confirmation and this candlestick pattern should be on the 4H timeframe. We can even add one more price action criteria which should work as resistance, the EMA100 is exactly inside on the light blue area! This could be even a sign that after the price gets a small rejection from $3,500 then the sell setup is triggered because the area is so strong but still a bearish candlestick pattern would be ideal.
SUMMARY: We have some signs that the current move should guide us to the light blue area and this area is very important because this area offers us two good trading setups AFTER CONFIRMATIONS!
Bullish setup: Wait for a 4H candle close above $3,500, then we have three bullish confirmations and the price should find momentum after that.
Bearish setup: Bearish setup is triggered after the rejection from $3,500. The trend is your friend and the resistance is very strong!
Please, do not forget to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE button!
Thank You very much!
Have a nice day!
Cheers!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Previous analysis:
Currently, I can say that the BTC price probably goes higher from here (at $3,400) and it will achieve the first target $3,500.
Altcoins are on the good shape and they react nicely with this BTC current small movement upwards.
Current scenario:
The price goes into the strong crossing area. There is a recent short-term higher high (orange line), there is the round number $3,500 which works as a resistance AND there is a Falling Wedge upper trendline which works also as resistance.
Those three price action criteria make a crossing area and You should already know that those crossing areas are really hard to beat, especially when we are on the downtrend and especially when we want to go higher from heavy resistance levels.
If the price reaches into the light blue "circle"/area then this area is a decision price zone for short- or even mid-term perspective.
To be said, IF the current 4H candle gets a close below the blue counter trendline (small up-trendline below the price) then it will probably take a bit longer to reach into the $3,500 OR even this could be a sell setup but I'll start to make updates if this counter trendline breaks.
Bullish Breakout
Bullish breakout would be confirmed if we get a nice 4H candle close above all levels:
1. A candle close above orange resistance line - this line is the recent short-term higher high. If we close higher than this then we would be sure that the market structure is still on the short-term uptrend and nice to see some consistency from buyers which is confirmed with higher high.
2. A candle close above the Falling Wedge upper trendline - Falling Wedge is a bullish chart pattern. If we get a candle close above the upper trendline then we have confirmed the breakout and the bullish chart pattern should start to work. The breakout is confirmed with new short-term higher high (previous point) and if there are more breakout confirmations then the breakout setup is even stronger! That is not all...
3. A candle close above the semi-round number $3,500 - This price level has worked multiple times as a strong support level and now it becomes resistance. So, multiple times worked as support and now becomes resistance?! plus the other criteria on this level, uuuhh...looks like this light blue area is super strong resistance area but, but we are on the bullish confirmation topic and IF we get also a 4H candle close above the $3,500 then we have three breakout confirmations and the price is ready to go higher and the next target would be $3,657 which is mid-term lower high peak.
Summary: To be bullish we have to get all those breakout confirmations, yes all! Example: if we get two breakout confirmations, a new short-term higher high and a breakout from Falling Wedge, then the price area between breakout and $3,500 is so tiny that we can't make any bigger assumption because we don't have a breakout confirmation from strong area which is worked multiple times as a "price bouncer". So, wait for a 4H candle close above the $3,500. It will be a bullish confirmation!
The bearish scenario in the light blue area:
As said, the area which is inside the "circle" is very strong and if we add here one good sentence: "the trend is your friend", then this could be a pretty massive Sell setup but definitely I'll wait for a bearish candlestick pattern which will be another great bearish confirmation and this candlestick pattern should be on the 4H timeframe. We can even add one more price action criteria which should work as resistance, the EMA100 is exactly inside on the light blue area! This could be even a sign that after the price gets a small rejection from $3,500 then the sell setup is triggered because the area is so strong but still a bearish candlestick pattern would be ideal.
SUMMARY: We have some signs that the current move should guide us to the light blue area and this area is very important because this area offers us two good trading setups AFTER CONFIRMATIONS!
Bullish setup: Wait for a 4H candle close above $3,500, then we have three bullish confirmations and the price should find momentum after that.
Bearish setup: Bearish setup is triggered after the rejection from $3,500. The trend is your friend and the resistance is very strong!
Please, do not forget to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE button!
Thank You very much!
Have a nice day!
Cheers!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Previous analysis:
Comment:
If BTC starts to move up then here is an altcoin trading idea:
You can support my idea post by hitting the “LIKE” button!
Cheers!
Cheers!
Comment:
I'm back and here is my new BTC analysis:
Cheers!
As said, this counter trendline break may even give a sell signal a bit earlier but currently, it is a bit risky because of the altcoins and the candle close is a bit weak.
Still, to say it one more time, be cautious!