I am looking at a weekly chart of BTC and its interactions with its 50wk EMA.
The last time we saw a protracted bear market like this, in 2014; we can see after peaking at 1175; we dropped down and tested its 50wk EMA. bounced off it for few months, went back and re-tested and failed. month or 2 later we retested again from underside, and failed. We tested it again in summer of 15, before we finally re-claimed it to the upside in late 15.
If we look at the current price, we can see a similar pattern emerging. After our climb to 20k, we saw initial touch of the 50wk EMA in Jan, where we bounced back to 12k. We saw a 2nd test in Mar/Apr before finally falling below the average in May. The latest climb to 8500 took us above that EMA briefly above it for 1 weekly candle close before dropping back below it to current levels.
It currently sits in the 7300 range.
In the previous instance of price breaking below that EMA, it took nearly 400 days before it again traded above the average (sept 2014 - oct 2015)
and fwiw, it was roughly 840 days from the time it broke above the 50wk EMA until the next time it touched (oct 2015 - jan 2018)
Prior to 2014, the only other instance of interacting with its 50-week EMA, it traded below it for roughly 84 days before reclaiming it again:
Needless to say, it is an important level to watch when determining the overall, larger trend.
Lastly, one could debate endlessly any value, or lack of, in comparing charts from 2014 to the current one. I understand that the fundamental environment is completely different than it was 4 years ago. I am ONLY looking at any comparisons from a technical side ONLY. I will argue, however, that while the fundamentals ARE entirely different, it is always worth looking at past price action when attempting to determine future movement. (whether its bitcoin or any other trade-able asset, new or old.)
The last time we saw a protracted bear market like this, in 2014; we can see after peaking at 1175; we dropped down and tested its 50wk EMA. bounced off it for few months, went back and re-tested and failed. month or 2 later we retested again from underside, and failed. We tested it again in summer of 15, before we finally re-claimed it to the upside in late 15.
If we look at the current price, we can see a similar pattern emerging. After our climb to 20k, we saw initial touch of the 50wk EMA in Jan, where we bounced back to 12k. We saw a 2nd test in Mar/Apr before finally falling below the average in May. The latest climb to 8500 took us above that EMA briefly above it for 1 weekly candle close before dropping back below it to current levels.
It currently sits in the 7300 range.
In the previous instance of price breaking below that EMA, it took nearly 400 days before it again traded above the average (sept 2014 - oct 2015)
and fwiw, it was roughly 840 days from the time it broke above the 50wk EMA until the next time it touched (oct 2015 - jan 2018)
Prior to 2014, the only other instance of interacting with its 50-week EMA, it traded below it for roughly 84 days before reclaiming it again:
Needless to say, it is an important level to watch when determining the overall, larger trend.
Lastly, one could debate endlessly any value, or lack of, in comparing charts from 2014 to the current one. I understand that the fundamental environment is completely different than it was 4 years ago. I am ONLY looking at any comparisons from a technical side ONLY. I will argue, however, that while the fundamentals ARE entirely different, it is always worth looking at past price action when attempting to determine future movement. (whether its bitcoin or any other trade-able asset, new or old.)