Our long-standing case in Bitcoin now needs some revision in terms of a technical update.
First and foremost, and as anyone knows who’s followed me here on TradingView for some time now, you know I don’t do raw TA - and especially not when it comes to Bitcoin and crypto. No, I build cases. That’s why we land on our feet whilst most others crash and burn.
So what then is raw TA and moreover: what is a case?
Raw TA is simply to look at the underlying but without any context whatsoever, neither internal nor external.
Building a case, on the other hand, is to contextualizes things. It's a way to add on new and relevant and independent technicals and to revoke obsolete ones. But most importantly it’s to connect the interconnected.
In the case of Bitcoin I therefore add the strongest relevant technicals together in a constant flux. But even more so, it’s about comparing Bitcoin to mining companies and alt coins. By doing so we acquire a far more superior and holistic view in terms of risk and reward than could otherwise be attained. A case versus brute TA is like three dimensions versus two.
This building of cases is particularly of value to us at this very moment. It is precisely what we’ll discuss in today’s analysis.
Lately here on TradingView we've talked about how Bitcoin was preparing for a buy setup based on three individual technical criteria.
First we had the symmetrical triangle in the RSI on the daily chart in Bitcoin. This alone was never a buy signal, but rather a premature notification of upwards power to follow. A turbo, if you may.
Secondly - and the key aspect in this entire case - we had an ascending triangle in Bitcoin. Naturally, this would never break out unless the RSI were to break out first. Now we’ve had that triangle breakout and thus two of our three points are nicely checked.
That leaves us with the third and final one. The black sheep in this case equation, namely Marathon Digital Holdings.
Whilst Bitcoin took off by ten percent or so last weekend, I did expect a proportionate reaction in Marathon too … a blast through the horizontal resistance.
Yet, on Monday we saw no such thing. Initially, the stock made a futile attempt at breaking above, but it didn’t take long before it was back again in its God forgotten channel.
And this is where things get truly interesting and relevant. This is where our case begins, for as most inexperienced traders will base their entire position on the triangle breakout in Bitcoin, we know that such move will be limited unless Marathon follows suit.
For as long as Marathon is stuck in its range, there’s no way in hell Bitcoin will proceed up with free reign. For when Bitcoin runs … on the fairly rare occasions when it trends strongly and persistently … that’s when Marathon has its time to shine by grossly over performing versus that of Bitcoin’s spot price.
But by staying pat in its range and thus showing immense weakness and hesitation, it naturally follows that Bitcoin’s going nowhere.
Had Marathon broken out to the upside on Monday, however, it’d be completely different story. Instead, it’s start-of-the-week disengagement caused me to take another look at Bitcoin to revise our case. What I found was this: a diagonal resistance line that perfectly fits the Marathon bill.
And if we expand on this diagonal line, we quickly notice how it in fact amounts to an ascending channel …
or a bear flag if you may … for that’s precisely what it is until proven otherwise.
Now, bear flag or not, it doesn’t mean it’ll break out to the downside. We still have several check mate technical arguments for this area being a reversal point. We’re talking strong ones like the lower bullish red signals and the ABCDE triangle that is still fully in play. In this sense, I am still bullishly optimistic.
But be that as it may. We still don’t take longs at technical resistance! It’s just too risky. Going long here is far more dangerous than doing so here, once the price has broken out on the upside.
The ideal scenario right now would be for Bitcoin and Marathon to consolidate right below their respective resistances.
Yet, as counter intuitive as it may sound, such price action has a predominant bias to result in long-lasting and strong moves to the upside (or downside had it occurred at support).
With that said, if we can get breakouts in Bitcoin and (!) Marathon, then chances are we’re in for quite a ride. But no break, no take.
On a final note, this is precisely why our case approaches are of such high value. Had it not been for Marathon’s failure to follow suit, we’d be long stuck in a potentially fast-waning, high risk breakout.
Now, by updating and adapting our case to the new interconnected data, we can stay out of the way and rather target a low risk breakout rather being stuck in high risk volatility.
On that note, I wish you all a kick-butt awesome weekend!
First and foremost, and as anyone knows who’s followed me here on TradingView for some time now, you know I don’t do raw TA - and especially not when it comes to Bitcoin and crypto. No, I build cases. That’s why we land on our feet whilst most others crash and burn.
So what then is raw TA and moreover: what is a case?
Raw TA is simply to look at the underlying but without any context whatsoever, neither internal nor external.
Building a case, on the other hand, is to contextualizes things. It's a way to add on new and relevant and independent technicals and to revoke obsolete ones. But most importantly it’s to connect the interconnected.
In the case of Bitcoin I therefore add the strongest relevant technicals together in a constant flux. But even more so, it’s about comparing Bitcoin to mining companies and alt coins. By doing so we acquire a far more superior and holistic view in terms of risk and reward than could otherwise be attained. A case versus brute TA is like three dimensions versus two.
This building of cases is particularly of value to us at this very moment. It is precisely what we’ll discuss in today’s analysis.
Lately here on TradingView we've talked about how Bitcoin was preparing for a buy setup based on three individual technical criteria.
First we had the symmetrical triangle in the RSI on the daily chart in Bitcoin. This alone was never a buy signal, but rather a premature notification of upwards power to follow. A turbo, if you may.
Secondly - and the key aspect in this entire case - we had an ascending triangle in Bitcoin. Naturally, this would never break out unless the RSI were to break out first. Now we’ve had that triangle breakout and thus two of our three points are nicely checked.
That leaves us with the third and final one. The black sheep in this case equation, namely Marathon Digital Holdings.
Whilst Bitcoin took off by ten percent or so last weekend, I did expect a proportionate reaction in Marathon too … a blast through the horizontal resistance.
Yet, on Monday we saw no such thing. Initially, the stock made a futile attempt at breaking above, but it didn’t take long before it was back again in its God forgotten channel.
And this is where things get truly interesting and relevant. This is where our case begins, for as most inexperienced traders will base their entire position on the triangle breakout in Bitcoin, we know that such move will be limited unless Marathon follows suit.
For as long as Marathon is stuck in its range, there’s no way in hell Bitcoin will proceed up with free reign. For when Bitcoin runs … on the fairly rare occasions when it trends strongly and persistently … that’s when Marathon has its time to shine by grossly over performing versus that of Bitcoin’s spot price.
But by staying pat in its range and thus showing immense weakness and hesitation, it naturally follows that Bitcoin’s going nowhere.
Had Marathon broken out to the upside on Monday, however, it’d be completely different story. Instead, it’s start-of-the-week disengagement caused me to take another look at Bitcoin to revise our case. What I found was this: a diagonal resistance line that perfectly fits the Marathon bill.
And if we expand on this diagonal line, we quickly notice how it in fact amounts to an ascending channel …
or a bear flag if you may … for that’s precisely what it is until proven otherwise.
Now, bear flag or not, it doesn’t mean it’ll break out to the downside. We still have several check mate technical arguments for this area being a reversal point. We’re talking strong ones like the lower bullish red signals and the ABCDE triangle that is still fully in play. In this sense, I am still bullishly optimistic.
But be that as it may. We still don’t take longs at technical resistance! It’s just too risky. Going long here is far more dangerous than doing so here, once the price has broken out on the upside.
The ideal scenario right now would be for Bitcoin and Marathon to consolidate right below their respective resistances.
Yet, as counter intuitive as it may sound, such price action has a predominant bias to result in long-lasting and strong moves to the upside (or downside had it occurred at support).
With that said, if we can get breakouts in Bitcoin and (!) Marathon, then chances are we’re in for quite a ride. But no break, no take.
On a final note, this is precisely why our case approaches are of such high value. Had it not been for Marathon’s failure to follow suit, we’d be long stuck in a potentially fast-waning, high risk breakout.
Now, by updating and adapting our case to the new interconnected data, we can stay out of the way and rather target a low risk breakout rather being stuck in high risk volatility.
On that note, I wish you all a kick-butt awesome weekend!