There is tons of information on the net from Twitter to YouTube predicting when this crypto bull market is ending & where the ceiling exactly is. I have decided to put emotions aside & examine the previous cycles as well the current crypto climate to narrow those answers down. I am going to keep this simple for newbies out there as that's the whole M.O. for Industry 4. To estimate this ceiling and end to this bull market we have to concentrate on Bitcoin as at the time of writing it makes up 41% of the entire crypto market cap.
We have to go back to October 21st, 2011, at this date Bitcoin is at a all time low of $2.19. We are going to take this time period from it's all time low to it's next all time high of $1,165 on November 30th, 2013 after the halving (11/28/12 ).
Time Period: 771 Days
Percentage Increase: 35k % + ( 35,000%+ )
Percentage Decrease: 85%
Next go back to January 14th 2015 at this date Bitcoin has again hit an all time low of $170. We are going to take this time period from it's all time low to it's next all time high of $19,717 on December 17th, 2017 after the halving ( 7/9/16 ).
Time Period: 1066 Days
Percentage Increase: 11k % + ( 11,000%+ )
Percentage Decrease: 82%
Three takeaways we can gather from these last two time periods
#1 Each cycle extends an extra year
#2 Each bear market begins with a small percentage decrease
#3 The next cycle percentage increase is about a 3rd of the previous cycles.
TODAY we go to December 15th, 2018 where Bitcoin has again hit an all time low of $3,155. We are going to add a year to the previous time period of 1066 days which would mean we will get a new time period of ABOUT 1,400 days dating to an cycle end in October 2022. We are going to take a third of the previous ATH percentage increase of 11k%+ which would give us 3.6k%+ from the all time low ( $3,155 ) equaling a ceiling of $119k. We can also gather where the next All time low might be, but we will save that for speculation.
We have to go back to October 21st, 2011, at this date Bitcoin is at a all time low of $2.19. We are going to take this time period from it's all time low to it's next all time high of $1,165 on November 30th, 2013 after the halving (11/28/12 ).
Time Period: 771 Days
Percentage Increase: 35k % + ( 35,000%+ )
Percentage Decrease: 85%
Next go back to January 14th 2015 at this date Bitcoin has again hit an all time low of $170. We are going to take this time period from it's all time low to it's next all time high of $19,717 on December 17th, 2017 after the halving ( 7/9/16 ).
Time Period: 1066 Days
Percentage Increase: 11k % + ( 11,000%+ )
Percentage Decrease: 82%
Three takeaways we can gather from these last two time periods
#1 Each cycle extends an extra year
#2 Each bear market begins with a small percentage decrease
#3 The next cycle percentage increase is about a 3rd of the previous cycles.
TODAY we go to December 15th, 2018 where Bitcoin has again hit an all time low of $3,155. We are going to add a year to the previous time period of 1066 days which would mean we will get a new time period of ABOUT 1,400 days dating to an cycle end in October 2022. We are going to take a third of the previous ATH percentage increase of 11k%+ which would give us 3.6k%+ from the all time low ( $3,155 ) equaling a ceiling of $119k. We can also gather where the next All time low might be, but we will save that for speculation.