Namjies

Bitcoin Long Term Price Trend & Trade

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Rough charting of trading and thought process on long term Bitcoin price trend.
I can't fully read the last two messages. Please comment it here. You're analysis is VERY interesting. Thank you for this!
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Namjies thebumtrader
@thebumtrader,
Text got a bit smaller than what I saw on my screen as I published.

Here's the last 3 blocks of text:
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I decided the summer breakout wasn't a mania yet. There was interest, but less from rich countries and more from small countries where remittance/inflation would make Bitcoin good. Promises and talk about LN and improvements. Too much disputes among devs. Could be temporary if things drag on with development and return to pink trend.
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Calling the peak of the mania. Price went down after big exponential breakout of trend. The mania was coming a lot more from countries with more capital, but mostly the sheer volume of money flowing in from small, casual investors, especially as holidays approached.

Yes there's big improvements about to come, but even after implementation it will take a long time for services, software and tools to be made to let the average person use them.

I'm taking a bet that we've run out of steam and there's not enough speculators left to keep the train going.
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If I'm correct and it's the end of bull run, I'd expect a break under purple trend and setting of a new, less steep trend. As adoption and volume increa

Depending on how fast prices drop, some short lived lows around 3k-5k and stabilization around 5k-8k. We'll probably see the rolled out things get tested and polished, such as Lightning Network. If everything goes nicely and things get usable for mass adoption, this should be a perfect place to buy in, in preparation of the next bull run. And hopefully this time, it will go up not because of speculation alone, but because of mass adoption.

Watching the news will be very important. Ideal entry point after a period of dead interest from mainstream news and casual investors, but good news within crypto.

Note that I'd consider this trend projection extremely bullish.
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@Namjies, The monthly chart seems to be telling me otherwise. Tweezer tops?
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Excellent analysis - I fully concur.
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Namjies Bartdeking
@Bartdeking, where's the 1st point of that pitchfork connected? Doesn't seem like it connects to any support/resistance point.
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thebumtrader Bartdeking
@Bartdeking, I agree to this.
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