Good morning, traders. Currently, there appears to be more reason to be bullish, at least in the short term, than there is to be bearish. As mentioned in last night's live stream, it looks like Bitcoin is building a case for a repetition of the April low. However, just because things can appear that way doesn't mean they have to follow through. As always, traders make money with risk management, not win rate. BTCUSD Shorts continue their drop and Longs continue their rise toward a breakout. As a result, Shorts v. Longs continues to drop as well and are currently sitting at 0.7369. This is a good sign. BTC dominance precedes bull runs, and if you've been watching our live streams then you know we continue to discuss it. We have been watching the % increase (currently sitting at 42.65%) and expect to see, at the least, a relief rally for the time being as a result.
coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Looking at a comparison of 4 hour charts from the April low and the current low shows us the pattern repeating. CME June Bitcoin futures expire on June 29th as well. So if you are of the belief that some OTC traders are utilizing futures to create selling pressure on spot price so that they can get a better OTC long deal, then it adds credence to the idea that spot price should rise after the June expiration. Combine that with the understanding that price continues to remain on support without any strong push below it and I believe that should give traders a real pause when arguing that Bitcoin will continue down from this point. This doesn't guarantee that Bitcoin won't eventually drop further, just that it seems more likely that we will see some sort of rally in the near term, as mentioned above, culminating in at least a test of the large wedge descending resistance line in the $8000s.
The daily chart gives us a large picture of the overall price movement. There is a possibility that the large price movement from February has created one of the two wedges noted. The support of the first is derived off the candle bodies and the current low would need to be the spring which means upward momentum would have to breach that resistance line of the descending wedge. However, if the second is the actual descending wedge support line, then we should expect a rally right now, followed by a movement down toward the support level one more time in preparation for the actual spring and subsequent bull market return. Either one of these would only be valid if we are in an accumulation phase as I believe we may be at this time. I have provided the Wyckoff of the first already (linked below). I am working on a Wyckoff of the second and will post it once it's done. I am also completing a comparison of this current phase with the accumulation phase after 2014 for those who have some concerns about the size of the TR and the ensuing volume profiles, and will be posting that as well.
Currently, on this daily chart, I am watching for RSI to breach that descending resistance line. We should expect to see %B breach its own resistance line prior to that. MACD is also about to print a bullish cross which is inline with a movement up from this general area. While Bitcoin price did print a bearish engulfing candle yesterday, without confirmation today (another bearish candle) it means nothing. As of this time, price is printing a potential reversal candle. If Bitcoin can close the day with a candle similar to its present design, then we would need to see a bullish candle tomorrow to confirm it. Reversing today/tomorrow would set up a potential heck of a weekend as liquidity dries up, making it much easier to move price with lower order sizes.
coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Looking at a comparison of 4 hour charts from the April low and the current low shows us the pattern repeating. CME June Bitcoin futures expire on June 29th as well. So if you are of the belief that some OTC traders are utilizing futures to create selling pressure on spot price so that they can get a better OTC long deal, then it adds credence to the idea that spot price should rise after the June expiration. Combine that with the understanding that price continues to remain on support without any strong push below it and I believe that should give traders a real pause when arguing that Bitcoin will continue down from this point. This doesn't guarantee that Bitcoin won't eventually drop further, just that it seems more likely that we will see some sort of rally in the near term, as mentioned above, culminating in at least a test of the large wedge descending resistance line in the $8000s.
The daily chart gives us a large picture of the overall price movement. There is a possibility that the large price movement from February has created one of the two wedges noted. The support of the first is derived off the candle bodies and the current low would need to be the spring which means upward momentum would have to breach that resistance line of the descending wedge. However, if the second is the actual descending wedge support line, then we should expect a rally right now, followed by a movement down toward the support level one more time in preparation for the actual spring and subsequent bull market return. Either one of these would only be valid if we are in an accumulation phase as I believe we may be at this time. I have provided the Wyckoff of the first already (linked below). I am working on a Wyckoff of the second and will post it once it's done. I am also completing a comparison of this current phase with the accumulation phase after 2014 for those who have some concerns about the size of the TR and the ensuing volume profiles, and will be posting that as well.
Currently, on this daily chart, I am watching for RSI to breach that descending resistance line. We should expect to see %B breach its own resistance line prior to that. MACD is also about to print a bullish cross which is inline with a movement up from this general area. While Bitcoin price did print a bearish engulfing candle yesterday, without confirmation today (another bearish candle) it means nothing. As of this time, price is printing a potential reversal candle. If Bitcoin can close the day with a candle similar to its present design, then we would need to see a bullish candle tomorrow to confirm it. Reversing today/tomorrow would set up a potential heck of a weekend as liquidity dries up, making it much easier to move price with lower order sizes.
