BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good morning, traders. Bitcoin did as expected this weekend and finally produced a new yearly low. The question is, did this move set the spring we have been discussing? As I continue to remind everyone, the bottom is a process, not an event. The spring is part of this process. Since my original Wyckoff chart was a bit old, and a few individuals have decided to concentrate on the time frames (which were never the goal) and not the price movement (which was the goal), I have updated it. The trading range ( TR ) is in yellow. We need to see price break $6600, which is the bottom of the TR , before we can begin to even think about anything higher. The spring will be the thrust up from the low that takes us to the TR . Does the spring begin with the move up from Sunday's low? We don't know for sure just yet. There is a strong possibility of it being so based on the large, almost $500 price swing during that daily candle, as well as the weekly swing point failure. Additionally, we can see bullish divergence on the daily RSI , %B, and MACD's negative histogram. Furthermore, MACD is nearing the apex of consolidation and should be making a large move one way or the other sooner rather than later. The weekly MACD negative histogram is showing bullish divergence between the weeks of April 2nd and June 18th. This doesn't mean we can't drop lower this week, only that we should ultimately expect to see a move up. The importance of volume in this respect is that with each test of the low throughout this likely accumulation phase, volume has decreased significantly, which tells us that absorption has been high and selling is fatigued (a bottom may be in/near). As I am writing this update, I noticed that Tether just granted another 250,000,000 USDT (here is the link: https://omniexplorer.info/address/3MbYQM...). This has previously coincided with a bottom in the market and subsequent appreciation in price. BTCUSD shorts have fallen through the bottom of the ascending broadening wedge and BTCUSD shorts v. longs reached 0.9985 before dropping substantially, as I have been suggesting traders should monitor.

Careful attention to the current price and potential path provides a likely emergence of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. However, be aware that expansion of volume MUST accompany the break of the neckline from the right shoulder. Lack of volume = lack of follow through. If it does play out, then we would expect to see a target of the $7900-$8000 area which lines up well with the expected overall price movement. I am watching for price to breach the RSI , MACD , and %B resistance areas which should suggest bullish momentum. We still need follow through on the recent push above $6200, but it's a good start. Personally, I was expecting to see price retest the $5800-$5900 area first, especially after the recent rejection at $6250.

Comments

just waiting for the 5th subwave and we can take off
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If this scenario occurs, then I'll kiss your beard!
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@AlexW1701, lol No need to go that far. But it is a possibility at the moment. I've got a few more Wyckoff potentials I'm working on based on different information, and I'll have them uploaded once I'm done.
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TradeClass AlexW1701
@AlexW1701, dude, you are such a beard kisser. ::just teasing::
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Respectfully your chart does not meet the volume profile for this to be Wyckoff accumulation. It is charts like this that people post and lead others into losing money.
Absolutely wrong with your Wyckoff chart. Accumulation is very very tight. Please study wyckoff and know volume before posting nonsense.
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@Alijr, Could you tell the same thing about ProwdClown chart?
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@Alijr, I'm sorry you feel that way, but rest assured I have an ample amount of training and experience. Rather than berate you as you have chosen to do to me, I will just direct you to the 2015 BTC Accumulation phase and subsequent size of the TR, as well as its volume profile. I'll be posting it soon if you'd rather wait. Accumulation TRs tend to be dependent on price appreciation over the longer term. An accumulation range of $4000, for example, means little-to-nothing in a price swing of $60,000 or more. We are taking a macro approach, here, in the market of an extremely volatile asset at the beginning of the adoption phase.
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TradeClass TexasWestCapital
@TexasWestCapital, TexWest, I think all methods of TA should be considered and market fundamentals included, which is WHAT you do. Any chart can be drawn with bias. In fact, they all are.. and you can have 50 people look at the same statistical information and their charts will differ.

I think his attack on your chart is more like a blind man feeling the elephant's tail and defining the animal as long and ropey and only his opinion matters. His ratings on here are almost zero in all areas, except someone gave him an AGREE one time. Your tolerance of this kind of room noise is amazing. LOL
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