$BTC Bullish and Bearish Scenarios + Historical Trend (Bullish)
BTC holding the lower support throughout the last couple weeks. Even though its been violent moves as long as it holds that bottom support I see this as 'healthy-ish' consolidation. The potential head and shoulders is still however in play and until BTC gets a strong print above 18k area Coinbase on good volume I would be playing this defensively. My strategy would be to buy the breakout as I believe if BTC gets above the 17.5 to 18k range depending on your exchange then it will have clear skies to new all time highs.. might bounce around on psychological numbers but realistically no real resistance I see until about 25 to 28k area.
**Bearish Confirmation** if BTC were to have a 4 hour close below the bottommost support trendline then I'd start looking to 10k as psychological support which might give a bounce play and 8k as heavy support which happens to line up with a measured move from the head and shoulder IF CONFIRMED
**Bullish Confirmation** BTC print above 17.5k to 18k area depending on your exchange with good volume would likely lead to the scenario I outlined above.
Now heres something interesting I was looking at from a historical perspective..
Here's a chart of the action from a few market cycles ago when we had the China situation that brought BTC from 5k area to 3k area... looks remarkably similar to what we have going on now.. The three left and right arrows point to the head and shoulders and the arrow pointing downwards is where I believe we MIGHT be now in terms of the current cycle..
Indicators very similar, RSI beginning to creep up, MACD neutral and OBV (not shown) is beginning to show some bullish divergence (I don't put much weight on this but its worth mentioning)
So are we beginning a new market cycle? Definitely possible if we continue to hold the bottommost support trendline.. While none of this is an exact science I do like keeping it in the back of my mind as history tends to repeat itself in market cycles from what I've experienced.
None of this is financial advice, just updating my thoughts here. Happy holidays to everyone here!
**Bearish Confirmation** if BTC were to have a 4 hour close below the bottommost support trendline then I'd start looking to 10k as psychological support which might give a bounce play and 8k as heavy support which happens to line up with a measured move from the head and shoulder IF CONFIRMED
**Bullish Confirmation** BTC print above 17.5k to 18k area depending on your exchange with good volume would likely lead to the scenario I outlined above.
Now heres something interesting I was looking at from a historical perspective..
Here's a chart of the action from a few market cycles ago when we had the China situation that brought BTC from 5k area to 3k area... looks remarkably similar to what we have going on now.. The three left and right arrows point to the head and shoulders and the arrow pointing downwards is where I believe we MIGHT be now in terms of the current cycle..
Indicators very similar, RSI beginning to creep up, MACD neutral and OBV (not shown) is beginning to show some bullish divergence (I don't put much weight on this but its worth mentioning)
So are we beginning a new market cycle? Definitely possible if we continue to hold the bottommost support trendline.. While none of this is an exact science I do like keeping it in the back of my mind as history tends to repeat itself in market cycles from what I've experienced.
None of this is financial advice, just updating my thoughts here. Happy holidays to everyone here!