Bitcoin Bottom Trading With The Most Popular Indicators

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
UPDATE: The price didn't stay above $315 for 24 hours as I mentioned as rule to enter the trade. Instead the price flash-crashed a few hours later down to $304.99. This renders my entire "bottom trading" idea posted here invalid.

The goal of this bottom trading strategy is to avoid risk and therefore the trade should only be entered if the price stays above $315 on Bitstamp for 24 hours. Reason to buy here: The last low of $315.23 could be a potential "ugly bottom" (a little bit lower than the last bottom at $316.61). And the price is currently at a important Fibonacci retracement of 76.4% (if you connect the 2014 multiple-month low of $275 with the last weeks high of $453.92).

Current price is $323 as of
Wednesday, December 17, 2014, week 51, 23:15 UTC
Uptrend almost confirmed. I would be more happy now if my original idea ($315 being the bottom, not $305) had played out.

16:21 UTC
Monday, December 22, 2014, week 52


BitcoinGuru ChartArt
yeh because we hit 30x area im not convinced that the bottom is in. and the current uptrend seems "forced" in a way as it crawls slowly up again. i exited at 321 still no opinion but still leaning bearish on the entire market, with bulltraps like this one still on.
ChartArt BitcoinGuru
According to my Fibonacci analysis as soon as the price stays above $338-$340 the uptrend would be stable. I fully agree that the entire uptrend looks fake or "forced". But noobs can't see the difference of that, only that the price goes up more and more and so it could become a real uptrend when we break above the last peak of $333.
MoonTrader ChartArt
It looks better on Huobi than it does on the other exchanges.
ChartArt MoonTrader
I agree. I only post Bitstamp charts here, but I mainly watch Chinese exchanges now to see the actual trend and Huobi seems to lead.
BitcoinGuru ChartArt
yeh Huobi leading this. anyways i wont be able to trade this since im on vacation. good luck to u guys. ill be logging in and out few times during the next weeks still
It was fun to press play... (and also nice to see your chart with the updated indicators, thanks).
You said you'd be more happy if $315 was the the bottom. Is that because there would then be a 'perfect' double bottom?
ChartArt FluidicFX
Yes, exactly.

$317 (we had $317.11) would have been a perfect double bottom with a slightly higher low than the last one ($316.61). At $315 it would have been an "ugly double bottom" with a slightly lower low. But $304.99 seemed to be too low a few days ago to keep the uptrend working, which started at $275 / $300. Now with prices above $317 the long-term uptrend is currently stable again.
Here's my latest chart. I think a triple bottom here would be an anomaly.
ChartArt MoonTrader
It's not a triple bottom. A triple bottom would be three lows at around $275 or three lows at around $315.

The movement here at $315 is a potential double bottom inside the potential long-term uptrend which started at the $275 yearly low.
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