ChartArt

Bitcoin Bottom Trading With The Most Popular Indicators

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
UPDATE: The price didn't stay above $315 for 24 hours as I mentioned as rule to enter the trade. Instead the price flash-crashed a few hours later down to $304.99. This renders my entire "bottom trading" idea posted here invalid.

The goal of this bottom trading strategy is to avoid risk and therefore the trade should only be entered if the price stays above $315 on Bitstamp for 24 hours. Reason to buy here: The last low of $315.23 could be a potential "ugly bottom" (a little bit lower than the last bottom at $316.61). And the price is currently at a important Fibonacci retracement of 76.4% (if you connect the 2014 multiple-month low of $275 with the last weeks high of $453.92).

Current price is $323 as of
Wednesday, December 17, 2014, week 51, 23:15 UTC
I don't see enough demand here to justify a bottom. We saw volume at both of the recent lows at $315 and $275, but not here.
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ChartArt MoonTrader
The risk/reward is awesome. Either it stays above $315 and starts a new rally or you simply sell with stop loss at $314 or $313.

Regarding the volume. First this potential bottom needs to be tested by the risk takers. Then comes the volume from the people who don't trust this, yet and play it safe.
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MoonTrader ChartArt
I see what you mean. FYI, tho, I'm actually going against my own advice and taking a small long here to see if it stops in the $340s or not, so I I hope you're right. If it breaks my overhead resistance, then I'll be bullish with you!
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ChartArt MoonTrader
I recommend to wait until the price falls down to $317-$319 to go long, which should happen in the next 24 hours when the scalp traders sold the first bounce. Current prices above $316 are already overpay when most people are still bearish.
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MoonTrader ChartArt
That's actually where I took my long, so no worries. Like you said, great R/R.
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ChartArt MoonTrader
... aaaand its gone
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MoonTrader ChartArt
Yup, I suspected that it might. Possibly a good short opportunity soon, though.
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Here's my latest chart. I think a triple bottom here would be an anomaly.
Triple bottom or triple fail?
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ChartArt MoonTrader
It's not a triple bottom. A triple bottom would be three lows at around $275 or three lows at around $315.

The movement here at $315 is a potential double bottom inside the potential long-term uptrend which started at the $275 yearly low.
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MoonTrader ChartArt
I know it's not technically a triple bottom, but neither was the last one I highlighted on the chart. It's just a similar pattern with the bodies of the candles ending in the same place.
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ChartArt MoonTrader
I'm aware that the Bitcoin price could fall down to $100 as I pointed out two months ago:
Bitcoin price doom analysis: Why Bitcoin might crash to $85-$110
but so far I want to see if the bullish pattern gets a last chance confirmation:
Bullish Bitcoin Pattern Seeks Confirmation


Bullish Bitcoin Pattern Seeks Confirmation
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Uptrend almost confirmed. I would be more happy now if my original idea ($315 being the bottom, not $305) had played out.

16:21 UTC
Monday, December 22, 2014, week 52

snapshot


snapshot
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BitcoinGuru ChartArt
yeh because we hit 30x area im not convinced that the bottom is in. and the current uptrend seems "forced" in a way as it crawls slowly up again. i exited at 321 still no opinion but still leaning bearish on the entire market, with bulltraps like this one still on.
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ChartArt BitcoinGuru
According to my Fibonacci analysis as soon as the price stays above $338-$340 the uptrend would be stable. I fully agree that the entire uptrend looks fake or "forced". But noobs can't see the difference of that, only that the price goes up more and more and so it could become a real uptrend when we break above the last peak of $333.
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MoonTrader ChartArt
It looks better on Huobi than it does on the other exchanges.
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ChartArt MoonTrader
I agree. I only post Bitstamp charts here, but I mainly watch Chinese exchanges now to see the actual trend and Huobi seems to lead.
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BitcoinGuru ChartArt
yeh Huobi leading this. anyways i wont be able to trade this since im on vacation. good luck to u guys. ill be logging in and out few times during the next weeks still
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It was fun to press play... (and also nice to see your chart with the updated indicators, thanks).
You said you'd be more happy if $315 was the the bottom. Is that because there would then be a 'perfect' double bottom?
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ChartArt FluidicFX
Yes, exactly.

$317 (we had $317.11) would have been a perfect double bottom with a slightly higher low than the last one ($316.61). At $315 it would have been an "ugly double bottom" with a slightly lower low. But $304.99 seemed to be too low a few days ago to keep the uptrend working, which started at $275 / $300. Now with prices above $317 the long-term uptrend is currently stable again.
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