Still bear trap and wave C up or fractals saying down

I tried to post this earlier today, but i kept getting an error. So i posted it in my latest update of the previous analysis. Anyway, hopefully this time it works.

Yesterday when we reached the 7400 i closed half my long position at 7330 from the 6460, to reduce risk and lock in profit. But the main reason was this picture (of course also common sense to take profit after 900 point fast ride). In my previous analysis i had 2 options, the one you see here, and a slightly more bullish one suggesting we go to the 7800/8000. We all know what happened next of course, we started dropping and dropping and kept on dropping. I bought some more around 7050, the 7000 should/could have been a big support which i closed at 6950 and my remaining position got closed when we dropped below the 6850. Since then i have been flat and waiting for a clear entry signal, long or short.

There are 2 options now, we go up, or we go down :) LOL (best analyst ever i know :)).

Option 1: We have made wave A to 7500 and B just now to 6600 and ready to make wave C the next few days, towards 7700/8000.
Option 2: The chart above, giving 2 options for the coming hours, We already finished the yellow part from march 14th and are ready to drop again, or we go towards the 7000 again before we start dropping.

The similarities are quite amazing again but also the same reason i have doubts. My 20 years trader mind says we need a wave up before dropping big again, my 1 year crypto mind says we follow this picture. Even though i was slightly off yesterday i still made a nice profit because i was smart enough to take profit during the way up and not becoming to greedy. Sometimes it's for the best, sometimes you miss out much more. But trust me, on the long run your a winner if you DO take profit in parts.

I posted this chart an hour ago while we were still at 6600 levels, while i was writing this we already got a small answer, the bull flag it's making now suggest we go to at least 7000ish, so actually saying we have to create that yellow part at least before dropping. Having this said, i have narrowed my entry a bit. I could go short around 7000 (if i get a signal that i should) or i just wait and see what happens. Because my preference is still another wave up. So for me it's almost certain that i stay flat a day or 2. I will put my energy in the stock market as we seem to have made the reversal yesterday. I posted a perfect prediction of a bear trap/ reversal pattern yesterday on the DAX exactly at the low. I suggest you look it up, almost the same way i predicted the bear trap at 64xx 2 days ago on the BTC.

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I just bought a small position again at 6810 with a stop at 6700. This inverse H&S looking stronger now, think it's about to break out. I f we do break upwards, i will move my stop to my entry level

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Now lets see if the 6900 can be taken out from with this H&S

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It's weakening, moved my stop to 6750, to keep losses small

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I am out at even money

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was taking to long, and the inverse H&S got turned into an wedge

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I have turned short at 6800, now with a stop just above 6900, making a small bear flag now, and dropped out of that wedge. Small position!!

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Target of the wedge, if we drop below the 6725 if will move my stop to my entry level

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Making a bigger flag now, price should stay below the 6840 now, otherwise this flag is not valid anymore

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Perfect trade again :) target reached

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This the yellow area from the primary chart, 13 March. We had the same failed H&S, than the drop to 6780 (this chart from 9400 to 9100) where we made that flag. We probably completed the drop, so we could be going sideways for half a day now, so we should be in the green area now.
Ideally price stays below the 6900 with a max of 7100!!. So according to this picture we should be going for another drop to break the 6400.

It's all just based on this, not exact science and 100% reliable

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I am out for a few hours, come on guys where is the love. I feel a bit disappointed now, i know why, because my analysis was not 100% perfect. But i gave the bear trap bottom, gave a long trade from 6460 up to 7330, even gave small H&S yesterday and the bigger one who brought us to 7000, before the head was completed. It was slightly off, but lets be real, predicting every move to perfection is very difficult, even for me :)

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I have closed my short position by the way, good luck guys, bring the likes and i will give you updates later on

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This rally is probably showing other intentions. Going up to fast to still be that other plan. I am still flat and waiting!

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I am not at home, that’s why I did not go short, don’t know yet what this move means. Could still be the top and go down, but I can’t react fast enough, so that’s why I am staying flat

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If that other analysis is right, the chart here above, than we should be seeing something like this. It's not exact science guys, so no 100% same structure.

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Now we should go sideways and than slowly up again, according to the fractals (these are called fractals right? :) )

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Could stay in this channel for a while now. If so, this type of trading needs a different strategy.

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:)

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Highs are getting higher and higher slowly, so it's different than i thought at first. So chances are increasing allot we push further up

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Alts are starting to show some solid bottoms and seem to be turing up slowly. This could be some real confirmation that we are starting to turn up now. I am going long again, have bought the first just now at 6800, i will add if we drop some more around 6700/6750. Total is a small position! Why? because it's a countertrend move. Target? The moon :) no i don't know yet, probably at least 7700. But i will decide on the way up. My stop is around 6600

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I have moved my stop to that red area. Won't be adding towards 6700. There is not much room left.

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Well it dropped out that pattern of higher lows earlier, made another attempt and that selling volume kicked in en we made a fast drop. But what bothers me about this bear flag thats still in the making, volume is quite high. So there is a fight going on and it could be an accumulation phase. Just like that other bear flag yesterday (green area's). If i am wright we could still drop slightly below the previous low or a slightly higher low. If this theory adds up i think we have to stay above the 6300.

Thing is, even if it's a whale who has a plan to push higher, if selling volume gets to high it just can't be stopped, not even by the biggest whale.

I think am going for another risky long trade here, i don't know where yet but at lower prices, because i think i am starting to see some sort of descending wedge now, but i am not convinced of it yet

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This wedge, but the thing is, position of the support line is difficult to place. So i cannot give it real value yet. AND the position is not where they usually should be

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Now it should stay above that (flag) support line

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I am still flat, to be clear. I will probably stay flat for a few days now, this market is indecisive, to much sideways. Unless i see a very clear pattern that gives me a reliable trade, i will open a position (long or short), otherwise i will stay flat. For example, if this potential wedge turns out to be a real one, i will open a position. For the rest, it's just to much guessing. I still don't see a big drop to break the 6K, would be to soon IMO.
I will try and keep you up to date when i can, for the rest i will enjoy a little bit of free time. Have been putting more hours than a full time job in here lately. Sometimes the winning strategy is to clear your mind for a while and start fresh again after a few days.

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If price can push above 6600 now, it could be a small reversal, otherwise it's just a retrace to test the resistance again and will probably continue to drop slowly again

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I think i should call my self "reversal man" Is het not a Marvel hero, i don't know them all :) LOL
Nothing yet of course, but it's a signal that their are some bulls pushing and some bears already taking profit

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I just responded to a follower (who has been following and supporting me for a long time now). I have said all those things with the upmost respect, just trying to share my thought and experience. But i goes for most in general here, who have trading experience of 1/2 years or less....


Okay look, you have short medium and long term. I have been telling the long term is down for months now, short term is the small trades i make (my speciality) and the medium term is deciding the waves that happen in between. These are the most difficult ones.
Think about it like this, how was your mind set 2 months ago, when were hanging around 10/11K? Probably up with all the signals telling us to go up. And when we are down, you think we go down. 90% of the traders thinks like that even me if i get to emotional sometimes. I mean look at our top authors, they were big bulls above 9/10K, below 8K they have become the biggest bears all of a sudden. Markets are a psychological game! Crypto's are not you normal markets, so it could be slightly different. Thing is, if we start to drop in a straight line to 5K from here or a week ago, i am sure the 4K won't hold and we will probably even drop to 1K levels within a month or 2 at the most.

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The reversal is not there yet, but starting to take form now. If this bull flag succeeds, we should see a target of around 6850. Now the big resistance is 6900, if this level breaks, i think we could see a big short covering rally. But All of this has to happen within a few hours, bears need to get scared a bit now.

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An easy trade now would be, going long here, with a stop 50 points below. Chances are 75% we break this flag up, 25% chance we break the stop. So 25% for 40 points loss, or 75% for 150ish points profit. Just like a poker hand :)

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It's taking a bit to long, no real conviction. So probably it was just shorts closing and no real buying. Difficult to know which one it is

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Not completely over yet, but it did drop to much for a strong flag. Means their are still no real buyers waiting to get. Weak signal

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I went long guys at 6600, and i will add around 6500/6550. I am working on a new analysis for you guys. My stop is just below the 6400. Small position, risky trade, same gut feeling as i had few days ago with that bear trap. Does not mean i am wright again!!

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New idea posted