Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the daily chart, you can see that, well, my previous judgement that BTC would likely fail at the major resistance around 6000 and then immediately roll over toward the 4000 range was inaccurate. However, it's always wise to be cautious and, if you're a short-term trader, sidestep the market when it's heading into major resistance like BTC was/is, even if that means sacrificing some upside potential. More often than not, markets are rejected at major resistance points like that, and more often than not, your net liquidity will rise if you exit at major resistance and enter if the market confirms above that resistance or bounces off of major support. Buying into resistance is counter-intuitive, and in the long run (if you're a trader) you will be much better off if you avoid holding and buying into major resistance.
Here on the current BTC chart, we can see that Bitcoin has completely decimated the 6K resistance zone, like it didn't even exist. However, the current candle is now testing the price range where all of the candle bodies exist from July-November of 2018. So, there is some serious weight above Bitcoin right now, but it could continue to push even higher. In fact, you can see that it broke out above my uptrend channel (in blue,) and then tested the top of the channel around May 6th. From there, it has just exploded higher. So, Bitcoin showed that it held the top of the channel exactly. When price breaks out above a channel like that, the typical method of finding a price target is to measure the width of the channel, and add that to the breakout point. When we do that on the chart, we can see that price could reach a target of around 7100. Interestingly, that is exactly at the 23.6% retrace of the entire bear market. So, perhaps that's where BTC is heading. Honestly, at this point, any one of these resistance zones could turn BTC lower. We can only speculate now, how much higher it will go, before we enter a corrective phase.
Looking at the indicators, we can see that the NVT is still in the red. Also, the MACD and others are still diverging. The volume has also been unremarkable. Yet, BTC continues to charge higher, despite the resistance. So, I would obviously exercise extreme caution here.
The main thing that I am most interested in, is seeing if BTC can close above the first group of red resistance candles on my chart. It's just above that region now. If BTC closes today's candle above it, then we will have officially cleared all of the bottoms from the 6000 range. That would be a very bullish technical development.
As far as the bull market is concerned, there are many signs that it's beginning right now. Those signs include the close above the weekly 50 MA, the golden cross, the weekly MACD crossing above the zero line, in addition to other long term indicators showing that we may be in the beginning stages of the next bull market. However, there are many conflicting signals, like the NVT, which has never been wrong in projecting a retracement to the 61.8% retrace on the weekly chart, which would take us down toward the 4200 area. Also, there are divergences and other things that suggest that BTC is losing steam. Honestly, when there are so many conflicting signals like this, it's hard to accurately project what the market is going to do. I'm starting to think that BTC could rally all the way up to the 7000-7500 zone, and then correct back to the 6000 area to define it as support, before we ultimately head off to the races. Time will tell. For now, I see more opportunity in some of the top alt coins, because they have been lagging BTC. One thing is for sure, the volatility is here, so be prepared for a wild ride.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Here on the current BTC chart, we can see that Bitcoin has completely decimated the 6K resistance zone, like it didn't even exist. However, the current candle is now testing the price range where all of the candle bodies exist from July-November of 2018. So, there is some serious weight above Bitcoin right now, but it could continue to push even higher. In fact, you can see that it broke out above my uptrend channel (in blue,) and then tested the top of the channel around May 6th. From there, it has just exploded higher. So, Bitcoin showed that it held the top of the channel exactly. When price breaks out above a channel like that, the typical method of finding a price target is to measure the width of the channel, and add that to the breakout point. When we do that on the chart, we can see that price could reach a target of around 7100. Interestingly, that is exactly at the 23.6% retrace of the entire bear market. So, perhaps that's where BTC is heading. Honestly, at this point, any one of these resistance zones could turn BTC lower. We can only speculate now, how much higher it will go, before we enter a corrective phase.
Looking at the indicators, we can see that the NVT is still in the red. Also, the MACD and others are still diverging. The volume has also been unremarkable. Yet, BTC continues to charge higher, despite the resistance. So, I would obviously exercise extreme caution here.
The main thing that I am most interested in, is seeing if BTC can close above the first group of red resistance candles on my chart. It's just above that region now. If BTC closes today's candle above it, then we will have officially cleared all of the bottoms from the 6000 range. That would be a very bullish technical development.
As far as the bull market is concerned, there are many signs that it's beginning right now. Those signs include the close above the weekly 50 MA, the golden cross, the weekly MACD crossing above the zero line, in addition to other long term indicators showing that we may be in the beginning stages of the next bull market. However, there are many conflicting signals, like the NVT, which has never been wrong in projecting a retracement to the 61.8% retrace on the weekly chart, which would take us down toward the 4200 area. Also, there are divergences and other things that suggest that BTC is losing steam. Honestly, when there are so many conflicting signals like this, it's hard to accurately project what the market is going to do. I'm starting to think that BTC could rally all the way up to the 7000-7500 zone, and then correct back to the 6000 area to define it as support, before we ultimately head off to the races. Time will tell. For now, I see more opportunity in some of the top alt coins, because they have been lagging BTC. One thing is for sure, the volatility is here, so be prepared for a wild ride.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-