This BTC price movement chart is superimposed by the opening dates and settlement dates of semi-annual and three-month futures on CME. The chart shows the coincidence of the opening and closing dates of futures and their expected impact on the market expectations of prices ;). Arrows down/up I marked the expected position of professional players when opening futures short / long. 15/12/17 on CME opened the first futures on BTC-at the height. It is obvious that it is rational and reasonable to open them in a short. Settlement date for these transactions 05/07/18. It is likely that on this date we will see the desire of players to see the minimum price. 03/04/18 were opened semiannual futures settlement date 03/10/18. These deals were opened at the bottom and obviously opened in long. Three-month contracts would be advantageous to open on the basis of their closing date in the field of influence of December or April semi-annual contracts. If these assumptions are correct then 05/07/18 we will see the minimum price. after that, the impact of December futures will disappear and the price will move up under the influence of April. The three-month April contracts will have a slight corrective effect, but after 01/08/18 their influence will stop and the price will be under pressure of long six-month April and three-month may contracts.
Comment:
Instability in the financial market now has a negative impact on Crypto due to liquidity squeeze due to the curtailment of QE programs by the US Federal Reserve. I believe that the connection between the markets will soon break off sharply, as in the focus will be the growth of global inflation of a small number of instruments to protect against turbulence in the Financial Markets. On the Crypto market, there is objective and fundamental support - the growth of the cost of mining caused by the proximity of the threshold of the complication of calculations, the increase in the cost of electricity. I also think that the medium-term Crypto market will gradually return the given heights of previous periods and the main driver, strangely enough, will become the giants of the IT industry who will need ad blocking to promote and polarize their projects. In my opinion, the recent actions of major players with Wall Steet as the purchase of infrastructure creation etf etc. can lead only to one result - the increase in the cost of tokens. In this situation, I recommend being in the same boat with the big guys.