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1 day: $6,100 retest | 1 week: $5,750 breakdown | 1 month prediction: < $5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: “If not in a position then wait for the bear flag to confirm with a breakdown of ~$6,150” / Short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Bear flag & descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,600 | S: $6,250 | $6,000 | $5,750
BTCUSDSHORTS: Trying to turn 30,100 resistance into support
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0704%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -2.58% | 26 = -6.11%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -8.70% | 128 = -15.62%
Volume: Low volume on pullback surprises me. Watching for local high before day’s end.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,554 | 0.382 = $5,316
Candlestick analysis: Dark cloud cover
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish
TD’ Sequential: G2 < G1
Visible Range: High volume nodes from $6,000 - $8,500 with a gap at $5,000 that still needs to be filled. POC over last 5 days = $6,400 > just broke down and is expected to turn into resistance.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -2.15% | 24h = -2% | 1w = -1.15% | 2w = -9.24% | 1m = -14.13%
Bollinger Bands: Pull back just shy of the daily MA.
Trendline: 5 day trend is a bear flag.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up = $6,619 | Down = $5,919
On Balance Volume: Pulling back w price
ADX: -DI and +DI are converging, while ADX tries to build some momentum
Chaikin Money Flow: Appears to be turning back down after finding support at -0.1680
RSI (30 setting): Resistance at 45 on daily, back below 50 on weekly.
Stoch: Testing 33 which has been an area of resistance/support. Expected it to find resistance and fall back below 0
Summary: Was watching closely for resistance below $6,800 and/or the 12 EMA. On Daily-Update-day-170/]August 16th I said:
“I have often gotten my best entries when the current candle re explores a bearish wick from the day before. That is exactly what we are seeing now. Generally I will set my stop slightly above the top of yesterday’s wick.”
Seeing the top of the wick hold as resistance gives me confidence that we are posturing to make a big move to the downside.
The dark cloud cover on the current candle is a strong indication that it will happen sooner rather than later.
If not in a position then wait for breakdown of bear flag at $6,250. Stop loss could be $6,650 - $6,850.
1 day: $6,100 retest | 1 week: $5,750 breakdown | 1 month prediction: < $5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: “If not in a position then wait for the bear flag to confirm with a breakdown of ~$6,150” / Short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Bear flag & descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,600 | S: $6,250 | $6,000 | $5,750
BTCUSDSHORTS: Trying to turn 30,100 resistance into support
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0704%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -2.58% | 26 = -6.11%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -8.70% | 128 = -15.62%
Volume: Low volume on pullback surprises me. Watching for local high before day’s end.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,554 | 0.382 = $5,316
Candlestick analysis: Dark cloud cover
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish
TD’ Sequential: G2 < G1
Visible Range: High volume nodes from $6,000 - $8,500 with a gap at $5,000 that still needs to be filled. POC over last 5 days = $6,400 > just broke down and is expected to turn into resistance.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -2.15% | 24h = -2% | 1w = -1.15% | 2w = -9.24% | 1m = -14.13%
Bollinger Bands: Pull back just shy of the daily MA.
Trendline: 5 day trend is a bear flag.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up = $6,619 | Down = $5,919
On Balance Volume: Pulling back w price
ADX: -DI and +DI are converging, while ADX tries to build some momentum
Chaikin Money Flow: Appears to be turning back down after finding support at -0.1680
RSI (30 setting): Resistance at 45 on daily, back below 50 on weekly.
Stoch: Testing 33 which has been an area of resistance/support. Expected it to find resistance and fall back below 0
Summary: Was watching closely for resistance below $6,800 and/or the 12 EMA. On Daily-Update-day-170/]August 16th I said:
“I have often gotten my best entries when the current candle re explores a bearish wick from the day before. That is exactly what we are seeing now. Generally I will set my stop slightly above the top of yesterday’s wick.”
Seeing the top of the wick hold as resistance gives me confidence that we are posturing to make a big move to the downside.
The dark cloud cover on the current candle is a strong indication that it will happen sooner rather than later.
If not in a position then wait for breakdown of bear flag at $6,250. Stop loss could be $6,650 - $6,850.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/