Cryptosomniac

BTC analysis Oct 16 | Stop before the drop | Bulls not defending

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good Morning TV!
First of all thank you so much for watching my videos and giving me support through the months. I do these analyses to ensure that you make better financial decisions with your money in the crypto market. None of this is investment advice but it is advice from someone who has been in the ebb and flow of markets for 11 years now. I come from the traditional markets and even I have been surprised by the amount of false exuberance and enthusiasm in a space when the market is clearly giving you bearish signals. There is no glory in losing money. It's okay to wait for proper confirmations and signs to enter a market even when you've missed the bottom. The best traders in the world do just that--wait for confirmation for the market to give you confirmed trend signals. And I am telling you that Bitcoin has not given you any indication that a bottom has been created or that we're starting to go up. Even factoring in the large Tether FUD move from few days ago shows you we've come back down to old resistance levels ($6800). People fail to realize that retailer money does not move the market, at all. It's always the smart money, whale money, institutional money that moves the markets. And let me tell you that they have left quite a while back and they're not back just yet. On the contrary, I've said multiple times that they've probably acquired a significant amount of BTC to further dump the market. Those who do not understand institutional order flow don't realize that these folks have the capability to be under water for a lot longer for the time being to create liquidity from retailers only to rebuy your Bitcoin a lot cheaper. This is classic engineered liquidity. You can look up case studies of this by a simple Google search or basic market research.

With that being said, I am 80% still convinced that there is further downside to go because of a few things
1. Too much bullish sentiment still left in the market
2. Capitulation has yet to happen
3. Bulls have not defended current OB strongly enough to create a higher high (prev. swing) to initiate some signs of reversal
4. The current PA clearly tells you that a majority of bulls who opened their positions around $6k area are not defending their demand zone strongly enough. They've either left the market completely or will have their stops triggered around $5500 and let prices sink to next OB ($3000-$4800) for fresh demand and new buyers

I lean bearish into 2019 unless we break beyond the targets stated in the video: $6800, $7500, $7900, and finally $10.4k. After this the skies are clear for the bull run. Until then, stay vigilant and don't get caught up in the hopium.

Cheers!
Comment:
Look for BTC 4h chart to head toward the $6575 old s/r level. If we close the daily under this level, I'd expect a further breakdown into the week.
Comment:
Lower high created on 4h chart, marked by green semi-circle then red semi-circle. The TD already showing you that a red 3 is forming but not below a red 2 just yet. The ichi cloud is right at $6530, $45 below the $6575 horizontal s/r level. Let's see if we breach the cloud in the next few candles. This would again show a sign of weakness amongst the bulls. Which has been clearly evident over the last few months.
Comment:
If you feel bearish like I do, you would be looking for good opportunities to short. The chart posted above is one of them. Your stop should be about 1-2% above the prev. high so the red marked line is your stop. Your target is that green zone.

Not investment advice
Comment:
Watch the 30m chart to see if we continue the pattern of creating lower highs and get rejected by this important $6800 s/r level. Also watch the higher lows created from that initial dump (diagonal black line) to see if BTC is helping create this tightening symmetrical triangle.
Comment:
Ignore the noise and the moon calls. Look at the higher time frames and tell me if you see anything bullish. I don't. I believe this is the stop before the drop. Staying in this $6000 area is not accumulation for over 1 month now is not bullish by any means.
Comment:
You can see that ascending trend line (black) we were holding finally broke down. Now that same trend line seems to be providing us resistance. The symmetrical triangle also broke to the downside in the large pattern. This is especially significant as we created consecutive lower highs (LH marks) and then a subsequent rejection from the $6800 resistance level that held us down in late September and October.

Look to the $6650 then the $6575 s/r levels to be tested in the next 24-48 hours
Comment:
This is what I believe ETH is doing. A rounded cup/semi-circle move back to previous low. Watch the previous low to be taken out in the next few weeks. This happens in other assets quite a bit: significant beating on the asset, oversold on many time frames, price catches an undervalued low and gets a hard rejection from the bulls waiting at a low price. They push the price back up but make price checks on the way up to see if there is enough strength in the bulls to push price up further. If not, then the bulls collect their profits and slowly selling into retail investors' buy walls. Price slowly declines back down to previous low and in some cases takes out previous low.
Comment:
The 100daily MA (blue) has been rejecting us for the last month. Keep an eye on this.
Comment:
Sometimes it just helps to look at the weekly chart and zoom out. I sure do not see any significant changes in price action. Remember that we're waiting for $5500, bottom of current order block between $5400-$7900. If that is broken then next one will be $3000-$4800.
I think MMs just need to break 5.6k for capitulation. It would be easier to pump 10x from down below than from 6k so I am skeptical that MMs would be satisfied at this level for final accumulation.

Having said that, alts do seem bottomed out
Reply
Cryptosomniac deliciouspodo
@deliciouspodo, Ya- alts are far closer to their bottom than BTC, imo.

Aside from market makers, I also think the average retail investor is just recycling money. I don't see any sign of new money entering the market. Volume isn't ticked up, I don't see prices reflecting that, I don't hear the huge fomo/buzz from folks like we did middle/end of last year. All signs point to a potential further breakdown of BTC/crypto.
Reply
deliciouspodo Cryptosomniac
@Cryptosomniac, I agree with recycling of money. The price action since Aug 10th has been extremely weird and unpredictable. (Remember that Bitfinex spoofing / bullshit hidden walls?)

The sentiment is way too bullish
Reply
Now is the most opportune time to enter a long position
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@NTEC, I disagree but thanks for sharing. I'm still largely a bear.
+1 Reply
NTEC Cryptosomniac
@Cryptosomniac, I'm of the opinion that we are in a prolonged accumulation period, think years, rather than months. The real 'bull run' won't happen for another few years, the next halving is probably what sparks it off. However, the next few years provides an opportunity for those of us who aren't early adopters to accumulate as much Bitcoin as we can. The pump starts in the next few hours, it'll be gradual at first then over the next day or two we'll get a spike up to 7400. Then 10k within the month. Followed by a rollercoaster ride gyrating between 12k and 7k for the next two years. It might sounds crazy but after looking at the Bitcoin chart for an ungodly number of hours over the past year everything finally kind of clicked... So don't go all bullish when we start to pump ;)
Reply
@NTEC, Interesting. Very bold predictions. Thank you for your insights :) Let's watch and see. I am sticking to my $5500 target first. Based on the reaction of that I'll then further speculate the timing of the next move. My final bottom is in between $3500-$4800
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NTEC Cryptosomniac
@Cryptosomniac, I think you might want to reconsider... the pump starts now...
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@NTEC, you got werked! Played by countless hours of TA. Pay attention to solid dudes like @Cryptosomniac

It's just completely unnecessary to call for huge pumps. Besides the Tether joke, when have we had a legit $150 pump? Sporatic $50 pumps with miniscule volume and the very next bar absolutely no volume unless it's to the downside.
Ya'll just getting ridiculous with all of your hope. Just keep these charts and thoughts in your personal orbit. Backtest them to find anything coherent. I mean look at your call... it's literally a unicorn vomiting rainbows.
Reply
NTEC Halley
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