For those in Discord, we can see Bitcoin has been ranging between 9,700 and 10,100 on the 1-hour chart. Bitcoin needs to break above short-term resistance at 10,300.
However, indicators on the 1 & 4 hour timeframes are overbought indicating more price action.
On the , we can see the may be rejected at the confirmation level, which would support the idea of more short-term price action.
I would watch for a bounce off of the . Markets are becoming irrationally oversold seemingly due to participants reacting to the current price action as if we were in the same bear market of 2018.
In other words, the market is emotionally connecting the pullbacks in the market with the action from last year, despite the uptrend. Market cycles point to this stage as disbelief, which is further supported by the Bitcoin fear and greed index.
Lastly, we can see a conflict of indicators on the weekly charts. The stochasticRSI has almost hit it's range-bound bottom (blue circle), and the last time we had a crossover on the , we saw an increase of ~326%. Another ~326% increase would mean a high of ~39,113.
However, the is also at a crossover point (red circle), and the Kumo on points to a possible end of the year low nearing 6,500.
These two technical extremes mean we are at a critical point, a break below the could mean a possible panic sell followed by a large bounce, which would correspond with the Bitcoin halving.
Bearish: Failure to break above 10,300 could point to a pullback in the between 8,800-9,300.
Bullish: If the price is able to find support above 10,300, the next points of resistance are 10,900 - 11,300.
55% / 45%