Bitcoin Halving Thesis - Cycle Top and Bottom w/ Targets
I’ve been tracking the Bitcoin Halving Cycle for many many moons, trying to analyze as many patterns as possible to give me confluence in a signal for this cycle’s top and bottom.
There’s five that I will focus on in this thread:
1. Trough to Peak
2. Halving to Peak
3. Peak to Trough
4. Trough to Trough
5. Fibonacci Extension
Note, I do not take the 1st Halving in 2012 into much consideration as it was a very immature market with a novel technology. There was obviously no market data prior to this Halving to base any TA on, so that’s another kicker. Technical Analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy after-all.
Evidence in this bias comes from the past two cycles being nearly identical in all of the aforementioned.
The Halving Cycles I will focus on start in Jan. 2015 with the Trough to Peak being 1,068 Days. We then have a 363D Peak to Trough from Dec. 2017 to Dec. 2018.
It is similarly 1,059D from Trough to Peak in Nov. 2021 (-9D difference), and 378 Days back down from the Peak to Trough (+15D difference).
If we continue this Trough to Peak pattern of -9D difference adding 1,050D, that will put this Cycle Peak ~Oct. 6, 2025.
The Peak to Trough pattern of +15D with 393D would put our Cycle Bottom ~Nov. 3, 2026.
Now let’s look at the Halving to Peak. The last two Halving Cycles follow similar patterns again, while the first Halving does not.
2016-17 is 526D Halving to Peak, and 2020-21 is 546D, with a difference of +20D.
For the upcoming 2024 Halving ~Apr 22, 566D puts this Cycle’s Peak at Nov. 9, 2025. This correlates with the Trough to Peak Oct. 6 date to give us a 1 month range.
Next we’ll see the past two Halving Cycles Trough to Trough are highly correlated once again, whereas 2012 is not.
2015-18 it was 1,430D T to T.
2018-22 more closely resembles this cycle with 1,438D and a difference of 8D.
Following this pattern for 2022-26, adding on 1,446D would confirm the cycle’s bottom ~Nov. 6, 2026. That’s a 3D difference that we discovered in the Peak to Trough pattern.
The last thing I will cover is the Q3 2025 Price Target that I have found using the Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension.
Using this Fib from the 2015 low to 2017 high gives us a 3.618 level that is almost spot on with the 2021 Cycle Peak!
Using this again from the 2018 low to 2021 high, it would put the 3.618 ~240k. I’m not a fan of round numbers and would say $235k would be a bit more conservative to price the top.
I’ll be following this cycle very closely to see how this plays out and will share my analysis if the market detours from my thesis.
The point of this analysis is not to pick an exact date or price to sell, but to give a general range so you can be well prepared for when it happens.
I’ll most likely be selling
BTC
around the $200k range or Aug. - Sept 2025, whatever comes first, just to get ahead of the market.
I would rather miss out on those last gains on the way up than try to frantically exit on the way down.
If you enjoyed this analysis make sure to give me a follow and turn on notifications so that you can stay up to date with it.
Also Bookmark this thread so that you can come back for future reference
Happy Trading!
~FIN~
JK 👑
There’s five that I will focus on in this thread:
1. Trough to Peak
2. Halving to Peak
3. Peak to Trough
4. Trough to Trough
5. Fibonacci Extension
Note, I do not take the 1st Halving in 2012 into much consideration as it was a very immature market with a novel technology. There was obviously no market data prior to this Halving to base any TA on, so that’s another kicker. Technical Analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy after-all.
Evidence in this bias comes from the past two cycles being nearly identical in all of the aforementioned.
The Halving Cycles I will focus on start in Jan. 2015 with the Trough to Peak being 1,068 Days. We then have a 363D Peak to Trough from Dec. 2017 to Dec. 2018.
It is similarly 1,059D from Trough to Peak in Nov. 2021 (-9D difference), and 378 Days back down from the Peak to Trough (+15D difference).
If we continue this Trough to Peak pattern of -9D difference adding 1,050D, that will put this Cycle Peak ~Oct. 6, 2025.
The Peak to Trough pattern of +15D with 393D would put our Cycle Bottom ~Nov. 3, 2026.
Now let’s look at the Halving to Peak. The last two Halving Cycles follow similar patterns again, while the first Halving does not.
2016-17 is 526D Halving to Peak, and 2020-21 is 546D, with a difference of +20D.
For the upcoming 2024 Halving ~Apr 22, 566D puts this Cycle’s Peak at Nov. 9, 2025. This correlates with the Trough to Peak Oct. 6 date to give us a 1 month range.
Next we’ll see the past two Halving Cycles Trough to Trough are highly correlated once again, whereas 2012 is not.
2015-18 it was 1,430D T to T.
2018-22 more closely resembles this cycle with 1,438D and a difference of 8D.
Following this pattern for 2022-26, adding on 1,446D would confirm the cycle’s bottom ~Nov. 6, 2026. That’s a 3D difference that we discovered in the Peak to Trough pattern.
The last thing I will cover is the Q3 2025 Price Target that I have found using the Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension.
Using this Fib from the 2015 low to 2017 high gives us a 3.618 level that is almost spot on with the 2021 Cycle Peak!
Using this again from the 2018 low to 2021 high, it would put the 3.618 ~240k. I’m not a fan of round numbers and would say $235k would be a bit more conservative to price the top.
I’ll be following this cycle very closely to see how this plays out and will share my analysis if the market detours from my thesis.
The point of this analysis is not to pick an exact date or price to sell, but to give a general range so you can be well prepared for when it happens.
I’ll most likely be selling
BTC
around the $200k range or Aug. - Sept 2025, whatever comes first, just to get ahead of the market. I would rather miss out on those last gains on the way up than try to frantically exit on the way down.
If you enjoyed this analysis make sure to give me a follow and turn on notifications so that you can stay up to date with it.
Also Bookmark this thread so that you can come back for future reference
Happy Trading!
~FIN~
JK 👑