CuddlyCuddles

Bitcoin: Did it top? Or will it Continue?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In my previous analysis, I mentioned that there was a parabolic pattern, in addition to mentioning the price objective of it as well as other things. Well, bitcoin was shy of the price objective by approximately 1000 USD. I would say that the analysis went surprisingly well, however, I would also say that this overestimation of the price objective was due to the over estimation of the 3rd Base. That is understandable, it did however wick into my price range in that chart, despite not hitting its price objective.

The Current situation:
Currently, it is retesting, the upper trendline of the broadening wedge which can be seen in purple within the yellow circle/oval, a successful hold at this level would likely mean that this will continue its parabolic move, however, failure at this level would mean that the parabolic move has hit maturity and passed. I currently am expecting a retest of the supply line seen in red (its possible this may not occur as well).

In this analysis, I will be covering the current move in the Chart and I'd like to mention that it is extremely probable that this is a top:
1.) Generally, parabolic moves end with a ~60% retracement of the move, historically speaking, bitcoin sees a ~70% retracements of parabolic moves. However, the odds are currently against a retracement of this magnitude, and I am expecting to see an approximate ~40% retracement to ~8000-7500 as there is major support seen within that region, (The Major supports are boxed in green with the stronger point of support being more opaque and with a bolded horizontal line). (A retracement of 60% should not be out of the question).

2.) The supply line of the parabolic move can be seen in red, from that supply line, it can be seen that there were two touches and a hypodermic top thrusting through the supply line at the peak of the parabolic move. It can be noted that there was no true secondary test and the attempt to return to the price level of 13500 was underwhelming. Given the time frame of this parabolic, the retest should have happened already. After bitcoin was rejected at 14000, re-entered the supply line which only provided an insignificant amount of support again showing weakness.

3.) Another reason why this is probably the top is, time frame, people were calling this a bull market far too early, as the previous bull market had a very long base which lasted several months, and lead to a parabolic move over a 2 year span. This one occurred only in the daily, and had bearish signs of distribution. However, it is still possible to be in a bull market, first, a higher low must be established at least to determine whether we are in a trendless market or beginning a bull market.

4.) Another bearish Note is that this is overall a V top which occurred in high volume .

5.) The weekly candle shows a shooting star currently, which hasn't closed but shows sign of resistance ahead, whether or not there are bearish implications, this candle stick needs to become a bearish engulfing or the shooting star needs to be confirmed by the next weekly candle. In addition, there is currently a failure swing on the weekly, (dependent upon how this week ends will determine whether that failure swing prints on the RSI ).



Previous Analyses:




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