From now on most analysis will be shorter, whereas longer analysis will only come when there are several important factors changing. Will try to do these daily and put intra day updates on each analysis
Bitcoin remains bullish. Yesterday the SFP started looking bad as things had gotten a bit out of hand by Bitcoin rising for 8 straight days and being up 35% off its 9.1k bottom. It retested the trendline but skipped the 11-11.1k area which is ok. It dropped 9.5% in a day which is significant and normal after being quite overbought. Even in June we had 8 straight days and a red candle followed. It was smaller, but we hadn't gone up as much.
It is also very good and bullish that we've spend some time within the 11.2-11.8k area which is the main VPVR area which looks mature, but the more time we spend here, the better and stronger the upmove will be. We got a bit too high too fast and clearly whales pushed it to find liquidity above 12k. This doesn't mean it ends here as on every long term timeframe we look super bullish.
Another important thing is that this happened right when CME was closed. Whales did that to push the price lower and gain more liquidity. The fact that the gap closed so quickly shows that this was well planned.
Closing this by saying a close above 11.8k would be very bullish, close above 12.4k more bullish, a close above 13.2k even more and above 14k we are talking about 19k minimum. Now on the downside 10.8k is the most important levels bull should hold. 10.5k is the last stand but I doubt we would get there. There are many key levels we would have to break for this to go lower and if we do, then the double bottom is the perfect place for liquidity. Break it shake everyone out and then move higher.
Bitcoin remains bullish. Yesterday the SFP started looking bad as things had gotten a bit out of hand by Bitcoin rising for 8 straight days and being up 35% off its 9.1k bottom. It retested the trendline but skipped the 11-11.1k area which is ok. It dropped 9.5% in a day which is significant and normal after being quite overbought. Even in June we had 8 straight days and a red candle followed. It was smaller, but we hadn't gone up as much.
It is also very good and bullish that we've spend some time within the 11.2-11.8k area which is the main VPVR area which looks mature, but the more time we spend here, the better and stronger the upmove will be. We got a bit too high too fast and clearly whales pushed it to find liquidity above 12k. This doesn't mean it ends here as on every long term timeframe we look super bullish.
Another important thing is that this happened right when CME was closed. Whales did that to push the price lower and gain more liquidity. The fact that the gap closed so quickly shows that this was well planned.
Closing this by saying a close above 11.8k would be very bullish, close above 12.4k more bullish, a close above 13.2k even more and above 14k we are talking about 19k minimum. Now on the downside 10.8k is the most important levels bull should hold. 10.5k is the last stand but I doubt we would get there. There are many key levels we would have to break for this to go lower and if we do, then the double bottom is the perfect place for liquidity. Break it shake everyone out and then move higher.
Comment:
Looks like the 9 was nothing to mess with. We are currently back to square one but with a lot more information. We went up too hard too fast. Lots of chop and the Open Interest is at really high levels. I think there are too many longs (premiums, funding and long/short ratios agree). We are right before a really explosive move in either direction.
The overall structure is still pretty bullish, momentum and volume are healthy, but this trend has now become too obvious, while a small down trend is forming. The invalidation of this mini trend comes at 11500. We probably need more time (at least 1-2 days based on the 9). A test of 10500-11000 to shake late longs wouldn't surprise me.
If we don't break 11500, what seems more likely is chop now and slow increase from here... and pop on the weekend, so that we continue the short squeezes on CME. These squeezes are clearly back as we saw last weekend.
The overall structure is still pretty bullish, momentum and volume are healthy, but this trend has now become too obvious, while a small down trend is forming. The invalidation of this mini trend comes at 11500. We probably need more time (at least 1-2 days based on the 9). A test of 10500-11000 to shake late longs wouldn't surprise me.
If we don't break 11500, what seems more likely is chop now and slow increase from here... and pop on the weekend, so that we continue the short squeezes on CME. These squeezes are clearly back as we saw last weekend.
Comment:
Forgot to mention that above 12k again I expect a massive increase. Safest it would be to long 12.4k.
If we break below 11450 (not 11500 to be more exact), then 10.8-11.1k would be ideal for at least a short term bounce.
If we break below 11450 (not 11500 to be more exact), then 10.8-11.1k would be ideal for at least a short term bounce.
Funding, Long / Shorts overall and Tether premium indicating we are not ready yet. This rejection confirms it.
Up to 11700 the rise was normal. At 12100 it seems like the market was affected by Trump's tweet