BTC does the top before ETH again! ETH/USD is next!!!
Just to be clear: I am long on ETH and flat on BTC. In the chart above, the candles are BTC/USD, the blue line is ETH/USD, and the comparison in purple below is ETH/USD. The chart shows a weekly view to fit the entire analysis in the frame, but the potential price paths I drew in it could play out in a matter of hours or days if the market speed accelerates. I do not try to time markets - I attempt to analyze the highest probability areas they will go to, but I have no idea how long they will take to get there!
ETH/BTC may hold the key to understanding how BTC/USD tops before ETH/USD at the ATH and how we may be seeing a repeat of historical price action. Note that on ETH/BTC we have a potential triple bottom reached in the past day or so when BTC reached the peak of it's recent run to the 8300s. This what exactly what occured when BTC reached the ATHs in Dec of 2017. ETH/BTC bottomed at the BTC top only to rally in the following couple weeks as ETH then made a new ATH after BTC did. Based on the triple bottom action in ETH/BTC, I decided to overlay BTC/USD and ETH/USD and then line the charts up using a retracement fib on BTC/USD. The fibs line up best when pulled from near the top of BTC down to a (potential future bottom of 2k BTC over summer?!) level of around 2000 on BTC/USD. You can see that when you overlay ETH/USD (shown in blue) that it appears ETH may have bottomed, whereas BTC may have not. You can also see and compare the ATH price action on BTC/USD, ETH/USD and ETH/BTC to where we are now and I believe it's not a stretch to see why ETH may be getting ready for a solid rally of nearly 100%.
Here is a look at what happened when we were at the ATHs:
Here is what happened just after the ATHs:
Here is what it looks like where we are now, when you line up sideways movement in ETH/BTC on the BTC/USD and ETH/USD overlays:
This type of analysis is very hard to do because it is difficult to line up the overlays correctly to see relative price movements at the same time, but ETH/BTC is a big key as when it moves sideways is when the price action should line up the most.
I believe that we should see ETH/USD break to the upside in the very near future as ETH/BTC begins to build positive structure off the triple bottom. During this time, BTC/USD could move sideways. In my opinion, BTC/USD is reaching exhaustion and, much like you see at the ATH - it may drop hard and suddenly, giving ETH room to gain in ETH/BTC if ETH doesn't fall as hard, moves sideways, or moves up during this time. Likewise, it is possible that BTC holds in this area and simply lets ETH/USD catch up, which would look like a slower and more gradual climb on ETH/BTC. Market conditions are different than they were when we came of the ATHs, but we are seeing a lot of the same type of hype behaviors in the market. It is entirely possible that some "magic news" appears on ETH that drives a strong move upwards so that ETH is able to regain some of the lost strength relative to BTC. It should also be noted that ETH/USD dipped hard as BTC/USD fell off the ATHs - likely shaking out many weak hands and tight stops before ETH took it's turn in the ATH spotlight. This means we could see ETH/USD dip to get the square ups below (around 160 and 180), but that the dip could be fast and then ETH could bounce back up while BTC does not.
Long story short, ETH may rally as high as the low 400s before this hype move off the "bottom" is completed, while it is unlikely that BTC has much room left to run in USD value. It could blow above the current fib level as ETH comes up, but it is unlikely to hold that action for long as this move is highly unsustainable. The current Tether and Binance lockdown situation are also in play and should affect your risk consideration! If significant negative news is released in the near future, this entire setup could be tossed out. Always start with risk first when building any position!
Will history repeat itself? Are the algos driving the market through cyclical patterning fractals of price action? Only time will tell!!
I am currently only holding ETH and fiat as this market looks to be setting many alts up for capitulation through the BTC/USD pump, by holding their USD prices steady despite losing nearly 50% in btc pairing values. This means when BTC/USD turns - those alts will now lose USD value twice as fast. Be smart, protect your capital!!
I am NOT a financial adviser and this information is for educational purposes only!!
ETH/BTC may hold the key to understanding how BTC/USD tops before ETH/USD at the ATH and how we may be seeing a repeat of historical price action. Note that on ETH/BTC we have a potential triple bottom reached in the past day or so when BTC reached the peak of it's recent run to the 8300s. This what exactly what occured when BTC reached the ATHs in Dec of 2017. ETH/BTC bottomed at the BTC top only to rally in the following couple weeks as ETH then made a new ATH after BTC did. Based on the triple bottom action in ETH/BTC, I decided to overlay BTC/USD and ETH/USD and then line the charts up using a retracement fib on BTC/USD. The fibs line up best when pulled from near the top of BTC down to a (potential future bottom of 2k BTC over summer?!) level of around 2000 on BTC/USD. You can see that when you overlay ETH/USD (shown in blue) that it appears ETH may have bottomed, whereas BTC may have not. You can also see and compare the ATH price action on BTC/USD, ETH/USD and ETH/BTC to where we are now and I believe it's not a stretch to see why ETH may be getting ready for a solid rally of nearly 100%.
Here is a look at what happened when we were at the ATHs:
Here is what happened just after the ATHs:
Here is what it looks like where we are now, when you line up sideways movement in ETH/BTC on the BTC/USD and ETH/USD overlays:
This type of analysis is very hard to do because it is difficult to line up the overlays correctly to see relative price movements at the same time, but ETH/BTC is a big key as when it moves sideways is when the price action should line up the most.
I believe that we should see ETH/USD break to the upside in the very near future as ETH/BTC begins to build positive structure off the triple bottom. During this time, BTC/USD could move sideways. In my opinion, BTC/USD is reaching exhaustion and, much like you see at the ATH - it may drop hard and suddenly, giving ETH room to gain in ETH/BTC if ETH doesn't fall as hard, moves sideways, or moves up during this time. Likewise, it is possible that BTC holds in this area and simply lets ETH/USD catch up, which would look like a slower and more gradual climb on ETH/BTC. Market conditions are different than they were when we came of the ATHs, but we are seeing a lot of the same type of hype behaviors in the market. It is entirely possible that some "magic news" appears on ETH that drives a strong move upwards so that ETH is able to regain some of the lost strength relative to BTC. It should also be noted that ETH/USD dipped hard as BTC/USD fell off the ATHs - likely shaking out many weak hands and tight stops before ETH took it's turn in the ATH spotlight. This means we could see ETH/USD dip to get the square ups below (around 160 and 180), but that the dip could be fast and then ETH could bounce back up while BTC does not.
Long story short, ETH may rally as high as the low 400s before this hype move off the "bottom" is completed, while it is unlikely that BTC has much room left to run in USD value. It could blow above the current fib level as ETH comes up, but it is unlikely to hold that action for long as this move is highly unsustainable. The current Tether and Binance lockdown situation are also in play and should affect your risk consideration! If significant negative news is released in the near future, this entire setup could be tossed out. Always start with risk first when building any position!
Will history repeat itself? Are the algos driving the market through cyclical patterning fractals of price action? Only time will tell!!
I am currently only holding ETH and fiat as this market looks to be setting many alts up for capitulation through the BTC/USD pump, by holding their USD prices steady despite losing nearly 50% in btc pairing values. This means when BTC/USD turns - those alts will now lose USD value twice as fast. Be smart, protect your capital!!
I am NOT a financial adviser and this information is for educational purposes only!!
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Take a look at ETH/BTC - Notice that we are about 1 hour from close. Volume is strong and we see a daily bullish engulfing candle forming. We confirm, we confirm, we confirm! Yesterday's candle closed at .02514 btc and today's candle opened just slightly lower at .02512 btc. Yesterday's candle opened at .02695 btc so if today's candle closes above that level, we can consider this a textbook bullish engulfing candle and potential start of a trend reversal for the relationship between ETH and BTC. This would line up perfectly within the context of having touched the triple bottom on ETH/BTC down at in the .024's level.
A view showing the potential triple bottom:
A view showing the potential for a bullish engulfing daily candle that would support the possibility of ETH making a run (note the volume):
If ETH is able to break away, it is possible that it occurs sometime around the daily candle closing in a little over an hour from the time of this writing. Tomorrow is ETH day and Consensys and it wouldn't be a surprise to hear some new breaking news for eth shortly after it takes off sometime between now and then. Anything can and will happen in crypto! This is not intended to be financial advice and is for education purposes. I am testing the work I have been doing for over a year now. Always start with risk and protect your capital!
A view showing the potential triple bottom:
A view showing the potential for a bullish engulfing daily candle that would support the possibility of ETH making a run (note the volume):
If ETH is able to break away, it is possible that it occurs sometime around the daily candle closing in a little over an hour from the time of this writing. Tomorrow is ETH day and Consensys and it wouldn't be a surprise to hear some new breaking news for eth shortly after it takes off sometime between now and then. Anything can and will happen in crypto! This is not intended to be financial advice and is for education purposes. I am testing the work I have been doing for over a year now. Always start with risk and protect your capital!
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ETH/BTC show me the way, looks like a potential bottom to me and BTC/USD and ETH/USD are moving nicely along with it...
Here's that bullish engulfing daily candle, if is not likely they will turn it back in the next 30 mins now that it has developed more:
Remember: "The bullish engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal pattern. The second candle completely ‘engulfs’ the real body of the first one, without regard to the length of the tail shadows. The Bullish Engulfing pattern appears in a downtrend and is a combination of one dark candle followed by a larger hollow candle...
...Bullish Engulfing Candle Reversals: Investors should look not only to the two candlesticks which form the bullish engulfing pattern but also to the preceding candlesticks. This larger context will give a clearer picture of whether the bullish engulfing pattern marks a true trend reversal.
Bullish engulfing patterns are more likely to signal reversals when they are preceded by four or more black candlesticks. The more preceding black candlesticks the bullish engulfing candle engulfs, the greater the chance a trend reversal is forming, confirmed by a second white candlestick closing higher than the bullish engulfing candle."
Source:
www.investopedia.com...engulfingpattern.asp
Here's that bullish engulfing daily candle, if is not likely they will turn it back in the next 30 mins now that it has developed more:
Remember: "The bullish engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal pattern. The second candle completely ‘engulfs’ the real body of the first one, without regard to the length of the tail shadows. The Bullish Engulfing pattern appears in a downtrend and is a combination of one dark candle followed by a larger hollow candle...
...Bullish Engulfing Candle Reversals: Investors should look not only to the two candlesticks which form the bullish engulfing pattern but also to the preceding candlesticks. This larger context will give a clearer picture of whether the bullish engulfing pattern marks a true trend reversal.
Bullish engulfing patterns are more likely to signal reversals when they are preceded by four or more black candlesticks. The more preceding black candlesticks the bullish engulfing candle engulfs, the greater the chance a trend reversal is forming, confirmed by a second white candlestick closing higher than the bullish engulfing candle."
Source:
www.investopedia.com...engulfingpattern.asp
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Bullish Engulfing daily candle confirmed:
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So Far Binance has not enabled withdrawals, although they should be coming online shortly. Nothing on the chart indicates that the Binance situation has affected this TA setup. We are still go for the ETH move that appears to be following the previous ATHs type of setup. Updates will be made if anything changes. A pull back to square ups is possible at anytime given the volatility in this type of a move.
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The setup continues to progress and we see BTC/USD is holding around the 8k area or just under, while ETH/USD continues to gain strength as we see ETH/BTC coming up strong off the triple bottom. We must be ready for anything and/or nothing when Binance opens withdrawals at any time now. They said it would be "shortly after trading" resumed, but that was about 2 hours ago at the time of this writing. Be safe out there!!
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Yesterday's daily candle that was showing a potential trend reversal off a triple bottom on ETH/BTC has been joined by another nice looking daily candle that further supports the trend reversal in ETH/BTC.
"Bullish engulfing patterns are more likely to signal reversals when they are preceded by four or more black candlesticks. The more preceding black candlesticks the bullish engulfing candle engulfs, the greater the chance a trend reversal is forming.......
...confirmed by a second white candlestick closing higher than the bullish engulfing candle.""
If they close this second daily candle like it is now it will be a strong confirmation that a trend reversal is forming and will support the coming ETH/USD move which will gain strength against BTC/USD.
"Bullish engulfing patterns are more likely to signal reversals when they are preceded by four or more black candlesticks. The more preceding black candlesticks the bullish engulfing candle engulfs, the greater the chance a trend reversal is forming.......
...confirmed by a second white candlestick closing higher than the bullish engulfing candle.""
If they close this second daily candle like it is now it will be a strong confirmation that a trend reversal is forming and will support the coming ETH/USD move which will gain strength against BTC/USD.
Comment:
Binance withdrawals are open. I just tested a small amount of ETH and was able to withdraw it to Coinbase. Currently watching the charts for any signs of funny behavior but as of right now it seems that the restoration of Binance has gone of rather smoothly. Now that it is out of the way, we are looking for ETH/BTC to continue to gain ground.
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250 has been crossed, the psychological barrier was just smashed through and now we look ahead to a 255 fib area to see if we meet any significant resistance. It is possible that 250-255 is the area where we finally meet some slowdown on ETH as ETH/BTC has put in a pair of solid daily bullish engulfing candles which would support a strong trend reversal on this pairing.
A pull back on ETH/BTC could come in the form of BTC going up while ETH holds or falls, ETH going down while BTC holds or falls, or both going in the same direction, with ETH either rising slower or falling faster. Of course with the way BTC/USD put the move in to break 8k - it is also possible ETH/USD and ETH/BTC keep pushing further. We still have another 150 USD or so left in the potential 100% move from the time this opportunity was presented on ETH/BTC. I will post some updates after the daily candles close.
A pull back on ETH/BTC could come in the form of BTC going up while ETH holds or falls, ETH going down while BTC holds or falls, or both going in the same direction, with ETH either rising slower or falling faster. Of course with the way BTC/USD put the move in to break 8k - it is also possible ETH/USD and ETH/BTC keep pushing further. We still have another 150 USD or so left in the potential 100% move from the time this opportunity was presented on ETH/BTC. I will post some updates after the daily candles close.
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Things are moving along nicely. You can see BTC/USD moving sideways and ETH/USD picking up steam which has led to the bounce off the triple bottom in ETH/BTC.
We can now see the two very strong daily candles that support the reversal of a trend off a triple bottom in ETH/BTC:
So far all signs point to the move being on the table. We are looking for the strong possibility of making it up to 350 USD or above on ETH/USD before they really look to finish the move. All along the way there is potential for volatile pull backs and stop runs. This is an experienced move and trade. If you are in profits and start to feel uncomfortable - ask yourself if it's worth scaling out to take the discomfort away.
This is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Any trades you take or orders you place are entirely your own and your responsibility. Stay safe and protect your capital!!
We can now see the two very strong daily candles that support the reversal of a trend off a triple bottom in ETH/BTC:
So far all signs point to the move being on the table. We are looking for the strong possibility of making it up to 350 USD or above on ETH/USD before they really look to finish the move. All along the way there is potential for volatile pull backs and stop runs. This is an experienced move and trade. If you are in profits and start to feel uncomfortable - ask yourself if it's worth scaling out to take the discomfort away.
This is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Any trades you take or orders you place are entirely your own and your responsibility. Stay safe and protect your capital!!
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Did you panic sell on this pull back? I know I didn't. After a push up to 275 from the 200s and arguably lower - it makes sense and is perfectly healthy to pull back along the way. Volume decreased on the pullback suggesting that the market ran out of sellers and now we have begun to return to the positive direction. Look for price and volume to begin to increase again as the move resumes.
Comment:
The same type of pull back was seen from 206 USD back to the low 180s USD area as is seen in this picture:
Be safe and trust your plans. If you don't have a plan, seek out some training and start studying. It has taken me over a year to get this far and I still have much more to learn myself.
Be safe and trust your plans. If you don't have a plan, seek out some training and start studying. It has taken me over a year to get this far and I still have much more to learn myself.
Comment:
Nothing has changed much today. We can see a potential 1 hr head and shoulders forming, but a head and shoulders pattern is not very strong on the 1hr. We also aren't likely at the end of a cylce where a reversal makes sense. ETH/BTC just did a reversal and it is more probable that ETH/USD continues the climb while BTC holds sideways or drifts sightly lower.
IF something significant changes, I will make an updated chart and/or post - but for now we are in the w8 trade watching for significant movement. ETH/USD has correctly just a little bit and now we're looking for some volume to show up with the next move.
IF something significant changes, I will make an updated chart and/or post - but for now we are in the w8 trade watching for significant movement. ETH/USD has correctly just a little bit and now we're looking for some volume to show up with the next move.
Comment:
If they put a solid head and shoulders pattern in with a strong right shoulder, we could go lower and square up some candles on ETH/USD down below at 235 USD or 215 USD. It is more likely that they push past the local high at around 281 USD and work towards 300 USD on ETH/USD.
Comment:
This is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Any trades you take or orders you place are entirely your own and your responsibility. Stay safe and protect your capital!!
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They are going for the square ups and crushing BTC/USD faster than ETH/USD. ETH/BTC is fighting back. They may attempt a run below 200 before a bounce appears or they may end the move. It depends on how far BTC goes in panic and how well ETH/BTC holds up.
Comment:
BTC/USD likely has lower to go to square up the wick it just put in yesterday. ETH/BTC has squared up some candles, but also has a square up just around the .031 area. ETH/USD may make another push down soon as BTC/USD fixes the wick. If it does, we can look for a run to as low as 200 and possibly just underneath. 200 is a psychological level and it is entirely possible that many traders have placed stops just underneath. There is also a square up at the 205 USD area so now that we have pulled back this much, there is a strong probability of ETH/USD going lower a bit more before the buying returns.
If you go back and review the ATHs, you will notice a few times BTC/USD made wicks to the downside like we saw yesterday. During these moves, ETH/USD often dipped too, but over the course of a couple weeks, ETH/USD continued to gain strength until it was able to make its own ATH about a month after BTC did. If you were waiting for an entry, around the 200 area may make for a good one if ETH/BTC continues to hold its strength after bouncing off the triple bottom. I will post charts later today after they give us some more information.
If you go back and review the ATHs, you will notice a few times BTC/USD made wicks to the downside like we saw yesterday. During these moves, ETH/USD often dipped too, but over the course of a couple weeks, ETH/USD continued to gain strength until it was able to make its own ATH about a month after BTC did. If you were waiting for an entry, around the 200 area may make for a good one if ETH/BTC continues to hold its strength after bouncing off the triple bottom. I will post charts later today after they give us some more information.
Comment:
We squared up some candles over the weekend. For anyone following along in my general tracking of these pairs - I meant to update with a chart this weekend, but was a little under the weather. In the big picture so far, nothing really changed. We pulled back a bit off the last push up, but nothing outside the realm of normal price action after a strong move up.
BTC/USD and ETH/USD are making similar general movements, but we've seen a little pullback on ETH/BTC. If ETH/USD is able to gain strength relative to BTC/USD as expected, we should see the positive growth on the ETH/BTC chart.
BTC/USD and ETH/USD are making similar general movements, but we've seen a little pullback on ETH/BTC. If ETH/USD is able to gain strength relative to BTC/USD as expected, we should see the positive growth on the ETH/BTC chart.
Comment:
There is the potential from here that BTC/USD makes a strong down move. If this occurs, it is possible ETH/USD will make a move down as well. There were a couple of volatile shifts during the ATHs with several long wicks to the downside during that time. ETH/USD still has a potential square up around 205 and the potential for a stop run under 200. Look to ETH/BTC to see if ETH/USD can hold the ground it has gained against BTC/USD since the triple bottom and looking forward to the rest of the potential move left if ETH/USD follows the patterns in LTC and BTCs price action. If you are not used to holding through volatile moves, it may be wise to consider taking some profit. This is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Any trades you take or orders you place are entirely your own and your responsibility. Stay safe and protect your capital!!
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ETH/BTC has squared up a bit during the push up on BTC/USD and ETH/USD. If ETH/BTC starts to turn around we may see ETH/USD breakaway as BTC/USD approaches 9000 USD. I am still monitoring ETH/BTC closely to see if ETH/USD can start to really make the move BTC/USD already made about a month ago. Patience is key!
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ETH/USD has broken the most recent local high and we now see ETH/BTC appears to have broken to the upside out of a nice bull flag. This could be the beginning of ETH/USD starting to make it's move. If it breaks the 300 level easily, we should look to see where resistance shows up.
Comment:
We've broken out and now they've squared up ETH/USD nicely to the 250 area. ETH/BTC also squared up its breakout. We could still dip a bit further to really suck in some leveraged shorts, but now that we've broken and hooked back - we are looking for the GO next!
Comment:
We've almost squared up the 2nd daily candle from the bounce off the triple bottom. BTC may be nearing the top of it's local move and ETH may see a small pull back if BTC turns back towards the downside. The move on ETH/USD will show up on ETH/BTC when it really starts to take off if ETH moves without BTC. Will post an updated chart sometime this week, but still waiting this one out.
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ETH/BTC has squared up and we're starting to see ETH/USD head back up towards the local highs. Look for ETH/USD to try 300 if we can break the last local high at 288.77 USD on Coinbase Pro.
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BTC hit it's .50 retracement fib - so there is a potential for it to turn hard and fast from here. If that happens, ETH/USD may drop as well. Keep a close watch on eth/btc to see if ETH can hold strength even if the USD pairs lose some value. If you can't handle high volatility - consider taking some profits. I took some between 310 and 315 just in case we saw this area start a correction. Be safe and protect your capital! This is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only!
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BTC/USD went higher than expected in terms of retracement fibs, but finally
I've been so busy I haven't had time to update this - but we hit the 350 we were looking for when we opened this trade and post!!
ETH/USD is rising with ETH/BTC. BTC/USD appears to be taking a break while ETH/USD starts to creep upward. This could be the start of ETH beginning to make the next move up. ETH/BTC may have found an unexpected triple bottom and the daily candle close today is as strong as the previous bounce from where I was looking for the double bottom when I started the post. There is potential now for ETH to make it as high as the upper 500s if it can continue to gain strength on BTC and it follows the same type of ETH/BTC relationship that we saw back at the ATHs. I took a chunk off at 350 and bought back in another chunk after the bounce in the low 290s. I am now looking for targets above.
If ETH can continue to gain strength on BTC, the potential for higher targets are possible
I've been so busy I haven't had time to update this - but we hit the 350 we were looking for when we opened this trade and post!!
ETH/USD is rising with ETH/BTC. BTC/USD appears to be taking a break while ETH/USD starts to creep upward. This could be the start of ETH beginning to make the next move up. ETH/BTC may have found an unexpected triple bottom and the daily candle close today is as strong as the previous bounce from where I was looking for the double bottom when I started the post. There is potential now for ETH to make it as high as the upper 500s if it can continue to gain strength on BTC and it follows the same type of ETH/BTC relationship that we saw back at the ATHs. I took a chunk off at 350 and bought back in another chunk after the bounce in the low 290s. I am now looking for targets above.
If ETH can continue to gain strength on BTC, the potential for higher targets are possible
Trade closed: stop reached:
Had my finaly stop at 259. 71% gain from original entry to the stop out plus more gained from scaling out above. ETH does not appear to be ready to make the rest of the move at this time. It was still a good trade and I have a lot to study from it now.
This is not intended to be financial advice! It is only for educational purposes.