This is the wide-angle 4H chart from November-April that I sketched after having my recent bull conversion (linked below). I had noticed the first possible patterns showing the possible path of third rally after a triangle breakout on the 1H. Afterwards I started this analysis on a fresh chart when I started wondering what was dictating the historical resistance/support lines in my short-term analysis. When I looked back, I realized there was a historical precedent for the exact "triple bull flag" rally I had proposed: the period from the low at 420 in mid December up until the high of 990 near the start of Janurary.
At that time, there were many charts showing the descending triangle coming from the 1077 top and 971 lower peak, and many were convinced that upper trendline would prevent the December rally from going any further. But as history shows, in that crucial 690-720 zone, the secondary bull-flag was consolidating support, and proceeded to breakout in a long, strong rally to crazy heights at 990.
However, ever since that peak, we've been in a dominant bear market, and the descending triangle capping all price action was definitively set during the march rally up to 698, where another double bull-flag rally was stopped by that same reversal zone. The line that extended from those two peaks we have just touched at 544 on our second bull-flag of a strong rally. we have triple-topped that triangle, and probably the majority of analyses expect us to fail once again to breach that bearish trend.
What my projection shows, however, is that in the case of a breach of that lower triangle, there is actually an upper bearish triangle formed from the ATH 1095 thru the second peak at 990. and if we were to scale a proposed third rally past the lower trendline, we'd end up touching the upper trendline **precisely** in that same crucial reversal zone. Thus, we would, despite having had a massive rally almost exactly doubling price from 340-690, still be in a downward trend overall off the bubble high. Another key comparison are the RSI points in the current rally series compared to December. A third rally would be almost ridiculously high, but we're positioned the same as we were on Dec. 31st. There's room for such a climb.
This analysis came about by an entirely different method than my first, yet it validates my earlier projections perfectly. On this scale, I can see how such a potential third rally could hit those targets while respecting the dominate trendlines and reversal zones of the entire bubble formation. But as a full disclaimer: if we fail to decisively breach the lower trendline, this entire projection goes out the window. This is simply a study of what the market might do after such a breach.
At that time, there were many charts showing the descending triangle coming from the 1077 top and 971 lower peak, and many were convinced that upper trendline would prevent the December rally from going any further. But as history shows, in that crucial 690-720 zone, the secondary bull-flag was consolidating support, and proceeded to breakout in a long, strong rally to crazy heights at 990.
However, ever since that peak, we've been in a dominant bear market, and the descending triangle capping all price action was definitively set during the march rally up to 698, where another double bull-flag rally was stopped by that same reversal zone. The line that extended from those two peaks we have just touched at 544 on our second bull-flag of a strong rally. we have triple-topped that triangle, and probably the majority of analyses expect us to fail once again to breach that bearish trend.
What my projection shows, however, is that in the case of a breach of that lower triangle, there is actually an upper bearish triangle formed from the ATH 1095 thru the second peak at 990. and if we were to scale a proposed third rally past the lower trendline, we'd end up touching the upper trendline **precisely** in that same crucial reversal zone. Thus, we would, despite having had a massive rally almost exactly doubling price from 340-690, still be in a downward trend overall off the bubble high. Another key comparison are the RSI points in the current rally series compared to December. A third rally would be almost ridiculously high, but we're positioned the same as we were on Dec. 31st. There's room for such a climb.
This analysis came about by an entirely different method than my first, yet it validates my earlier projections perfectly. On this scale, I can see how such a potential third rally could hit those targets while respecting the dominate trendlines and reversal zones of the entire bubble formation. But as a full disclaimer: if we fail to decisively breach the lower trendline, this entire projection goes out the window. This is simply a study of what the market might do after such a breach.
