BTC at an important decision level - Trade with care !

BTC had a nice run up in the last 5 weeks, but that might be brought to a halt around these levels. We can clearly see that we are at a weekly support/resistance level that is most likely to decide the near future. Although we have tested the 10k level, today we have seen a pullback to around 9.5k and if we stay around that level for the weekly close, the likelihood for a bearish week is definitely there.
If that happens, I see a potential pullback to around the 8.4k levels. (A level which was broken and never tested for support).

If however we manage to go higher and test the 10k level again, we might see another run up in the following week, but the probability of that happening is slightly lower imho.

Trade with care, thanks for the likes and support !

Comment:

As expected, the bearish scenario which had a higher probability played out and we are well on our way now to the 8.9k area which on our way up has to be proven solid support. Let's see now how price will react when revisiting this level.

Comment:

We seem to have failed to test the 8900 level, we briefly dipped below 9k but the buyers still seem to be pretty much in charge here. They succesfully defended the move that took us to the high and we are actually going higher again. Next move I expect is to test the 10k highs again.

Comment:

Bears gave it another go and we tested 8.9k now ... This has been strong support in the past as you can see from the chart below. But we have tested it so many times that it might just give in. If we break below support, 8.4k is definitely on the table.

Comment:

In above chart you will also see that a bearish Cypher pattern is forming that could complete just below 10.6k

Comment:

We are hanging on the last strings of the 8.9k support level, if this breaks, an AB=CD pattern could bring us down to the 1.618 extension of the initial move down.
This AB=CD pattern would complete around the 8.4k level support that was predicted earlier.

Comment:

OK, we've reached the predicted 8.4k level and completed the AB=CD level at the 1.618 extension of the AB (initial move down). We should see some support here and a nice retracement. Traditionally AB=CD patterns call for 38.2% and 61.8% targets, so even though we've seen a big bearish move, risking a long with a tight stop loss here isn't such a bad idea.
The 38.2% retracement offers a 3:1 RR, the 61.8% is a 5:1. Since we are trading with the mid term trend, adding a 127.2% target is not a bad idea either. Of course a tight stop loss is required just in case the bearish move would continue.