Today I watched video after video, and read TradingView idea after idea saying that BTC was going to bounce off of the supposed $9600 "support level" and spike immediately back to $11,000 while I was in the minority, calling for a continued drop along my magical Big Red 4.618 fib circle line. Well I have news for you... they were all wrong. INCLUDING ME.
Here's why...
Even though I got lucky and called for a continued drop, I was solidly sure that BTC would follow along the Big Red 4.618 that I have delineated on my chart, bouncing above and below the line along the way. So I can join the party with everyone else who got it COMPLETELY WRONG. There's a lesson to be learned here. The market is brutal, and unpredictable. No matter how many crazy lines and circles we draw, we are SPECULATING. That's the best we can do. I would say that I'm happy to see that the majority of my ideas have played out for the most part. Maybe not with 100% accuracy, but the general direction of the movements that I have been predicting this summer have been dead-on. You can thumb through my ideas and hit the "play" button and see for yourself.
But before you think I'm bragging on my expert ability to predict the movements like the master of all Gypsies, I was dead-wrong throughout the period of time that we surged during the parabolic movement to $13,800. Why was I so wrong during that time? It's due to the fact that technical analysis can be trumped by external factors that don't like to play along. Think Bitfinex and their unrelenting printing of Tether out of thin air (spoken in a Donald Trump voice), backed by nothing, or at least not a 1:1 ratio of the US dollar like they claim to do. No analysis in the world can predict the reckless actions of those who have the ability to churn massive numbers and move this young market in the direction they want, with greed being the primary motivation.
I'm going to step out on a limb and say that the bearish trend will continue, and we could bounce around within the parallel trading channel for a while longer, until we reach a critical point of breakout to the down side. But as sure as I am that this correction WILL happen, and finish out the bear market phase in the length of time that has been shown in history, I could still have my predictions flipped right on my head with a breakout to the up side. However, when looking at the big picture, I just don't see it happening.
I think it is dangerous to look at investing into Bitcoin as a "get rich quick" strategy, especially for those that are entering the market for the first time. The long-term play is the best play, and this is not a time to wager money that you cannot afford to lose. Experienced swing traders have the greatest possibility of profiting right now, due to the volatility in the market. There's nothing better than a highly volatile market for those who swing trade by buying on low dips and selling high, while also entering short positions on the peaks. But this is not something the newbie crypto trader should get involved with, especially if you are playing around with leveraged trading. One wrong move and it could be REKT CITY for the uneducated gamblers, so it is best to observe the cruelty of Bitcoin's movements for a LONG TIME before risking your hard-earned money.
I've invested small amounts of money over the past 2 years, seeing 10X gains, but the majority of the time, I held and gave that money right back to the market. I've watched Bitcoin since the day it was under $1, when I thought it would be "fun" to buy Bitcoins as an alternative way to buy things online. Yes, I'm kicking myself for losing interest in Bitcoin back in the early days, but the experience in watching the market is something I can never ever lose.
So to sum it up, my advice (which is not financial advice) is to WATCH WHO YOU LISTEN TO, and do your own due diligence before succumbing to the advice from anyone that whips you into a frenzy of excitement. If you are triggered by your emotions, that's your biggest key to know that you need to be CAREFUL. Keep a level head, and know that it is dangerous to follow the masses or the advice of the "gurus" who claim to know it all.
I'll have a new "big picture" idea coming soon, with a video that will be very insightful. Thanks for reading, and I'd love to hear your comments!
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro
Here's why...
Even though I got lucky and called for a continued drop, I was solidly sure that BTC would follow along the Big Red 4.618 that I have delineated on my chart, bouncing above and below the line along the way. So I can join the party with everyone else who got it COMPLETELY WRONG. There's a lesson to be learned here. The market is brutal, and unpredictable. No matter how many crazy lines and circles we draw, we are SPECULATING. That's the best we can do. I would say that I'm happy to see that the majority of my ideas have played out for the most part. Maybe not with 100% accuracy, but the general direction of the movements that I have been predicting this summer have been dead-on. You can thumb through my ideas and hit the "play" button and see for yourself.
But before you think I'm bragging on my expert ability to predict the movements like the master of all Gypsies, I was dead-wrong throughout the period of time that we surged during the parabolic movement to $13,800. Why was I so wrong during that time? It's due to the fact that technical analysis can be trumped by external factors that don't like to play along. Think Bitfinex and their unrelenting printing of Tether out of thin air (spoken in a Donald Trump voice), backed by nothing, or at least not a 1:1 ratio of the US dollar like they claim to do. No analysis in the world can predict the reckless actions of those who have the ability to churn massive numbers and move this young market in the direction they want, with greed being the primary motivation.
I'm going to step out on a limb and say that the bearish trend will continue, and we could bounce around within the parallel trading channel for a while longer, until we reach a critical point of breakout to the down side. But as sure as I am that this correction WILL happen, and finish out the bear market phase in the length of time that has been shown in history, I could still have my predictions flipped right on my head with a breakout to the up side. However, when looking at the big picture, I just don't see it happening.
I think it is dangerous to look at investing into Bitcoin as a "get rich quick" strategy, especially for those that are entering the market for the first time. The long-term play is the best play, and this is not a time to wager money that you cannot afford to lose. Experienced swing traders have the greatest possibility of profiting right now, due to the volatility in the market. There's nothing better than a highly volatile market for those who swing trade by buying on low dips and selling high, while also entering short positions on the peaks. But this is not something the newbie crypto trader should get involved with, especially if you are playing around with leveraged trading. One wrong move and it could be REKT CITY for the uneducated gamblers, so it is best to observe the cruelty of Bitcoin's movements for a LONG TIME before risking your hard-earned money.
I've invested small amounts of money over the past 2 years, seeing 10X gains, but the majority of the time, I held and gave that money right back to the market. I've watched Bitcoin since the day it was under $1, when I thought it would be "fun" to buy Bitcoins as an alternative way to buy things online. Yes, I'm kicking myself for losing interest in Bitcoin back in the early days, but the experience in watching the market is something I can never ever lose.
So to sum it up, my advice (which is not financial advice) is to WATCH WHO YOU LISTEN TO, and do your own due diligence before succumbing to the advice from anyone that whips you into a frenzy of excitement. If you are triggered by your emotions, that's your biggest key to know that you need to be CAREFUL. Keep a level head, and know that it is dangerous to follow the masses or the advice of the "gurus" who claim to know it all.
I'll have a new "big picture" idea coming soon, with a video that will be very insightful. Thanks for reading, and I'd love to hear your comments!
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro
Comment:
I WAS WRONG AAAAGAAIIIN! I thought I was wrong, but that was wrong. As of 7:14AM Central Standard Time, BTC has snapped RIGHT BACK to the Big Red 4.618 line. Ok I'm just kidding around, but seriously, I do feel better about my magical fib circle line now that I see this mini-recovery. But everything that I stated in this idea about being careful about who you follow, including me, is still valid. Safety FIRST.