The remaining question is: does is shift up or down? Please comment if you have a view on that.
I've been watching this long-term trend for years and the medium-term trend formed middle of March 2020 when the COVID dip bounced.
Given the medium-term trend is from the COVID recovery and the economies of the world are all now in a slow upswing, it is possible that because essentially $BTC got a running start here heading to breach this longer-term trend - it can now break through the resistance line formed 2.5 years ago. In fact, it already did just a few days ago on June 1st. That was an unusual spike but did not last long. Perhaps that was big money testing the waters of above $10K sentiment?
Normally I would think a 2.5 year trend would hold and I would be here. However, there are many reasons to think now might be the time this trend breaks and $BTC launches above and holds above $10K ushering in the march to +$20K BTC ...
1) COVID recovery has started freeing up cash to move back into all market (including crypto)
2) BTC halving has occurred
3) The psychology of $10K BTC is powerful. Once the news media can focus on BTC and the price goes above $10K, it could easily bring in many more retail investors
4) Adoption has continued to increase and move to the mainstream
5) BTC sentiment seems hopeful in a way I have not observed outside of a time of rapid price increases
6) The upward moves of BTC by large percentage swings (like the move above $10K on 6/1/20 in such a short time-frame) means there is a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting to jump in - cash jumping in is what causes Coinbase to crash and prices to soar (can someone please fix Coinbase's servers???)
One last idea if you read this far - I'm seeing sentiment from long-time crypto traders/supporters move in a positive direction toward $ETH. I recommend you study up on Ethereum .