Weekly summary
Bitcoin weekly
On the weekly I'm comparing this run to the 2017 bull market and noticed something phenomenal. In terms of the percentage gain from the most recent bearish candle we are already higher. I think we really need a pullback soon for this trend to continue in a healthy fashion. If we just keep going like this the crash will come too soon. As far as TA goes we're in new price discovery so there are no levels to consider. All we can really do is use Elliot wave theory to project and fib extensions. But when things are parabolic like this Elliot waves become less reliable. Right now on the weekly we are touching the 618 extension and would usually expect this to be the end of wave 3.
The wave 2 correction was shallow which usually means wave 4 would be deep. But because we are so parabolic it's possible we either only pull back to the 318, or we don't even get one at all. But let's consider what a pullback here would look like.
So that would take us back to $18,750 before wave 5 (usually the length of wave 1) would bring us up to $27,500 before we get a full ABC correction. I'm not going to plot that out unless it eventuates. This is by no means guaranteed to happen but we should not get too excited and start trying to place hero sized leveraged orders or anything like that.
Daily
After breaking out from an ascending triangle we reached the target from the measured move. If we now use our fib extensions we are not too far from the 50% extension. Possibly a wick up to here before a pullback would work well with my analysis on the weekly. But again, it's not guaranteed in fact I would say it's 50/50 and we may just keep going up. There are no bearish divergences yet, and no major peek in social network volume.
Extensions
Social volume
app.santiment.net/s/EvaEinMc
Ethereum weekly
ETH also looks due for a pullback but is not directly under any MAJOR resistance. It's well extended for a wave 3 and would usually have expected a pullback by now. It does feel like it wont come but let's entertain it anyway so we know what we might expect if we get one.
Like BTC wave 2 was shallow but I would not expect to see wave 4 go deeper than the 382 in a bull market. That would bring us back to around $530 before we continue and using wave 1 as a yard stick for wave 5 that would take us to around $930 before an ABC correction.
Fib extension for wave 3
Wave 4 retracement fib
You may struggle to read that chart well because of all the previous resistance levels. Sorry about it!
Measured move for wave 5
Daily
Looking extended on the daily too. We do look to be getting rejected from a daily level drawn from a swing high in May 2018, not a level I was expecting to get resistance at. If not for the Elliot wave TA I would not expect to have much trouble here, and after consolidation here there is every chance we just plow right on through as ETH catches up to BTC.
So all in all it's a bit 50/50 right now but we know what to expect if we get a pull back, we know not to panic. I don't think this bull market is anywhere near a top yet. We haven't seen the euphoria yet, every man and his dog isn't flooding into the market yet and the social media volume hasn't hit anywhere near a peak.
So for now we continue to look for set ups for leveraged trades and make sure to bag profits. We'll look for alt coins that are bottoming to roll capital into as people taking profits from BTC and ETH will be looking for opportunities in the alt coins and they will pump them astronomically.
Bitcoin weekly
On the weekly I'm comparing this run to the 2017 bull market and noticed something phenomenal. In terms of the percentage gain from the most recent bearish candle we are already higher. I think we really need a pullback soon for this trend to continue in a healthy fashion. If we just keep going like this the crash will come too soon. As far as TA goes we're in new price discovery so there are no levels to consider. All we can really do is use Elliot wave theory to project and fib extensions. But when things are parabolic like this Elliot waves become less reliable. Right now on the weekly we are touching the 618 extension and would usually expect this to be the end of wave 3.
The wave 2 correction was shallow which usually means wave 4 would be deep. But because we are so parabolic it's possible we either only pull back to the 318, or we don't even get one at all. But let's consider what a pullback here would look like.
So that would take us back to $18,750 before wave 5 (usually the length of wave 1) would bring us up to $27,500 before we get a full ABC correction. I'm not going to plot that out unless it eventuates. This is by no means guaranteed to happen but we should not get too excited and start trying to place hero sized leveraged orders or anything like that.
Daily
After breaking out from an ascending triangle we reached the target from the measured move. If we now use our fib extensions we are not too far from the 50% extension. Possibly a wick up to here before a pullback would work well with my analysis on the weekly. But again, it's not guaranteed in fact I would say it's 50/50 and we may just keep going up. There are no bearish divergences yet, and no major peek in social network volume.
Extensions
Social volume
app.santiment.net/s/EvaEinMc
Ethereum weekly
ETH also looks due for a pullback but is not directly under any MAJOR resistance. It's well extended for a wave 3 and would usually have expected a pullback by now. It does feel like it wont come but let's entertain it anyway so we know what we might expect if we get one.
Like BTC wave 2 was shallow but I would not expect to see wave 4 go deeper than the 382 in a bull market. That would bring us back to around $530 before we continue and using wave 1 as a yard stick for wave 5 that would take us to around $930 before an ABC correction.
Fib extension for wave 3
Wave 4 retracement fib
You may struggle to read that chart well because of all the previous resistance levels. Sorry about it!
Measured move for wave 5
Daily
Looking extended on the daily too. We do look to be getting rejected from a daily level drawn from a swing high in May 2018, not a level I was expecting to get resistance at. If not for the Elliot wave TA I would not expect to have much trouble here, and after consolidation here there is every chance we just plow right on through as ETH catches up to BTC.
So all in all it's a bit 50/50 right now but we know what to expect if we get a pull back, we know not to panic. I don't think this bull market is anywhere near a top yet. We haven't seen the euphoria yet, every man and his dog isn't flooding into the market yet and the social media volume hasn't hit anywhere near a peak.
So for now we continue to look for set ups for leveraged trades and make sure to bag profits. We'll look for alt coins that are bottoming to roll capital into as people taking profits from BTC and ETH will be looking for opportunities in the alt coins and they will pump them astronomically.