I realize that most everyone is talking about a market reversal right now, and several credible prognosticators have made the claim that Bitcoin has bottomed out within the last 48 hours. But looking at my chart, BTC just failed the well-known magical Big Red 3.618 fib circle ring. Funny how it bounced on that line THREE TIMES and then failed it. I took special note that on the last micro up-swing, the stochastic was topped-out but we did not get much of a bullish pump while we were in the overbought zone. That's very telling. When the oversold zone causes the price to move a lot more than the same time frame of when the stochastic is in the overbought zone, that is indicative of a downtrend.
I would look for a QUICK recovery to happen soon, IF this is not actually a continuation of the downward bearish trend. If BTC fights its way back up to the Big Red 3.618, and makes a few more bounces on the TOP side of the line, we could be in the beginning of a long term bullish movement. However, if we don't make that quick recovery, we might be in for a brief free-fall. The Big Red 4.236 line is waaaaaay down below us, and there is a probability of the scenario so many were predicting that we will correct down to $7800. We are only in the middle of the stochastic area (around 40% to 45%) which tells me there could be a long way to go before we hit the rock bottom oversold condition. Even if BTC recovers when it hits the 20% line that qualifies us for the situation "oversold" we would still have taken quite a nice dive.
I honestly do not know which way this will go. It's 50/50 in my opinion. But I do feel that BTC will not spend a long time out in "no man's land" in between the two rings (3.618 and 4.236). We have just seen too many instances in the past where the price line tends to jump from ring to ring, kind of like electrons jumping from one orbital shell level to another (for all the nerds like me, watch this video to see how Niels Bohr accurately described this very phenomenon and became the first to get it right -->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm2C0ovz-3M). It is mathematically fascinating how the price line gets pulled to and from these rings. So IF it drops, it could end up being a rather precipitous drop.
Don't make any decisions based on my commentary. I just call it like I see it, and I don't agree with the conventional wisdom just for the sake of popularity. I could be dead-wrong, but we'll have fun analyzing the action along the way!
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro
I would look for a QUICK recovery to happen soon, IF this is not actually a continuation of the downward bearish trend. If BTC fights its way back up to the Big Red 3.618, and makes a few more bounces on the TOP side of the line, we could be in the beginning of a long term bullish movement. However, if we don't make that quick recovery, we might be in for a brief free-fall. The Big Red 4.236 line is waaaaaay down below us, and there is a probability of the scenario so many were predicting that we will correct down to $7800. We are only in the middle of the stochastic area (around 40% to 45%) which tells me there could be a long way to go before we hit the rock bottom oversold condition. Even if BTC recovers when it hits the 20% line that qualifies us for the situation "oversold" we would still have taken quite a nice dive.
I honestly do not know which way this will go. It's 50/50 in my opinion. But I do feel that BTC will not spend a long time out in "no man's land" in between the two rings (3.618 and 4.236). We have just seen too many instances in the past where the price line tends to jump from ring to ring, kind of like electrons jumping from one orbital shell level to another (for all the nerds like me, watch this video to see how Niels Bohr accurately described this very phenomenon and became the first to get it right -->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm2C0ovz-3M). It is mathematically fascinating how the price line gets pulled to and from these rings. So IF it drops, it could end up being a rather precipitous drop.
Don't make any decisions based on my commentary. I just call it like I see it, and I don't agree with the conventional wisdom just for the sake of popularity. I could be dead-wrong, but we'll have fun analyzing the action along the way!
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro