I know that there is a lot of controversy among traders at comparing the current bear market with the 2014/2015 bear market, but studying the historical behavior of BTC in previous markets may provide a lot of insight in the current trend. I myself did not experience the previous bear market personally.
In the 2014/2015 BTC bear market the weekly RSI of the first capitulation went down to 30.4 and the second capitulation went down to 27.5. In the current bear market, the recent low in BTC brought the weekly RSI down to 29.
The question everyone is asking: will BTC have another dip from here and how low will the price and the RSI go?
If BTC falls rapidly it might create a lower low in the weekly RSI , but it is NOT to say that the price will create a lower low, or that it will capitulate with a long wick candle as in 2015. My reasoning behind this is that the market today is larger and more liquid than in 2014/2015, and also, everyone is looking to buy the lows in a "long wick candle capitulation". The buzzword of the day is "capitulation", which makes me question if we would ever see that type of capitulation again in this bear market.
If we compare the daily RSI of 2014/2015 with 2018/2019 there are interesting similarities:
After the first capitulation in the 2014 bear market (look chart below), BTC created an failed ascending triangle that did not break to the upside. This created a rising support trendline in the daily RSI that finally broke through downward.
In the current bear market, the daily RSI created a rising support trendline that looks scary similar to the one in 2014/2015 (between the two capitulation points). BTC formed a (sort of) symmetrical triangle that broke to the downside, however we might be just in the process of making an ascending triangle like in 2014/2015. (illustrated by the orange doted lines in the picture below)
Conclusion
No one can predict how BTC will bottom in this bear market. I think most traders expect it to bottom with a long wick candle, thus BTC may act contrary to the belief of the majority, as markets always do.
Please Like if you found this somewhat helpful.
In the 2014/2015 BTC bear market the weekly RSI of the first capitulation went down to 30.4 and the second capitulation went down to 27.5. In the current bear market, the recent low in BTC brought the weekly RSI down to 29.
The question everyone is asking: will BTC have another dip from here and how low will the price and the RSI go?
If BTC falls rapidly it might create a lower low in the weekly RSI , but it is NOT to say that the price will create a lower low, or that it will capitulate with a long wick candle as in 2015. My reasoning behind this is that the market today is larger and more liquid than in 2014/2015, and also, everyone is looking to buy the lows in a "long wick candle capitulation". The buzzword of the day is "capitulation", which makes me question if we would ever see that type of capitulation again in this bear market.
If we compare the daily RSI of 2014/2015 with 2018/2019 there are interesting similarities:
After the first capitulation in the 2014 bear market (look chart below), BTC created an failed ascending triangle that did not break to the upside. This created a rising support trendline in the daily RSI that finally broke through downward.
In the current bear market, the daily RSI created a rising support trendline that looks scary similar to the one in 2014/2015 (between the two capitulation points). BTC formed a (sort of) symmetrical triangle that broke to the downside, however we might be just in the process of making an ascending triangle like in 2014/2015. (illustrated by the orange doted lines in the picture below)
Conclusion
No one can predict how BTC will bottom in this bear market. I think most traders expect it to bottom with a long wick candle, thus BTC may act contrary to the belief of the majority, as markets always do.
Please Like if you found this somewhat helpful.