tarzibou

Lost Years Scenario

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS-

Despite the downtrend since December, we are still above the main upward trend channel, which we could re-enter till July (red ellipse) but there are two strong support lines that have to snap in order to see a further downtrend: the 0.618 fib retracement of the former 12345 Elliott Wave and the 0.618 fib speed retracement of its start impulse.

In case the 12345 Elliott wave is complete, the (regularly) following ABC correction pattern should end near to the end of the former wave 4 and as there are three possible 4s, I showed every possible end of this ABC correction of which the purple C is the most likely, in my opinion.

Furthermore, I marked two critical points with a yellow ellipse:

1) B crossing 0.618 fib retracement upwards ( bullish ) or 0.5 fib speed retracement downwards ( bearish )

2) Purple and red C crossing 0.786 fib retracement and 0.382 fib speed retracement downwards ( bearish ) -or- both just got touched by the green C (sideways / bullish )

Either way, afterwards there should be tested the next higher fib retracement zone again as shown in the chart.

-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS-

Which way we will finally take, depends on the fundamentals for BTC and how the market mood reacts to them. For now, they do not look very good, to be honest.

In comparison with other cryptocurrencies, BTC is technologically broken:
  • higher fees
  • slower (around 10 transactions per second)
  • unsure (many unconfirmed transactions)

Seriously, who wants to pay 20 $ fee and wait 20 minutes (or even longer) for a cup of coffee? ;-)

Due to its lack of understanding the Bitcoin Core Group achieved the loss of most of BTCs market share to alternative cryptos within the last year and no end is in sight.

On top of that comes the Tether issue, see www.tetherreport.com: Kindly google it as I am too lazy to explain why it affects the whole market ;)

Unfortunately, as most crypto exchanges still use BTC as main trading pair for all other cryptos, the price trend of BTC affects all other cryptos, as well. Therefore we will likely observe the war and raise of an alternative main trading cryptozerpency (hups... ;) ) as long as BTC is not getting fixed.
Comment: 2K is possible in the long run

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