Just a follow up to the last idea about the Tether/price correlation which worked out pretty much spot on. Tether supply is the red line, you can see the lag continues as they mint the new tethers then push them out to exchanges and use it to pump prices up. My thoughts on this are that institutional interest and retail interest just isn't there. So, Tether/Finex is doing a "fake it till you make it" pump. The only way the can get the demand/liquidity to later sell all the BTC they've been buying up is to make people FOMO into it and when that happens they'll dump it for real actual USD. A couple of points for those who believe retail/institutional interest is driving the prices.
1) The growth of other stablecoins such as USDC is nonexistent. On January 14th of this year there were 384 million USDC coins minted. (For those who don't know what USDC is, it is a USDT competitor but actually undergoes 3rd party audits). As of today, July 9th, there are 376 million USDC in circulation. So, since January there are 10 million less USDC. In contrast to that, on January 14th of this year there were 1.97 billion tethers. Today there are 4.12 billion tethers. Kind of funny that the stablecoin that recently lost hundreds of millions in customer funds is raking in billions while the audited stable coin is losing millions.
2) Take a look at things like Coinbase app ranking. As well all know well, Coinbase is the main fiat onramp. Unfortunately, its app growth has remained flat since the 3200 bottom. In fact, when BTC was last at these prices coinbase app was # 1 in all categories in the entire world. Today it ranks around #36 in the finance category.
3) Take a look at Google trends and you'll see that retail interest just isn't reflected. Look at it sating back through 2017 and 2018.
4) So you say institutions are buying up BTC. Well, sad to say, they aren't. Here is the latest CFTC commitment of traders report for CME. Scroll down to commercial interest on BTC. You'll see that there are 0 institutional longs and indeed there haven't been any institutional longs for weeks now. Truth about institutional interest in BTC is that it has less interest than every other asset listed for futures on the regulated CME market. Even lean hogs have more interest than BTC.
****Don't take this as me knocking on BTC. That is not what I am doing. Rather it is me pointing out the blaring discrepancy in Tether from every other gauge we have on the markets. Retail interest hasn't increased, other stablecoin supplies are decreasing while Tether grows by several billions. instutional interest isn't there. All that is pumping the market is fake Tether. Having said that, don't fight the trend. A mere 16% of the volume is done on USD. Tether has the clear upper hand here and can print unlimited fake money to pump prices, so don't try to outshort things with actual real USD.
1) The growth of other stablecoins such as USDC is nonexistent. On January 14th of this year there were 384 million USDC coins minted. (For those who don't know what USDC is, it is a USDT competitor but actually undergoes 3rd party audits). As of today, July 9th, there are 376 million USDC in circulation. So, since January there are 10 million less USDC. In contrast to that, on January 14th of this year there were 1.97 billion tethers. Today there are 4.12 billion tethers. Kind of funny that the stablecoin that recently lost hundreds of millions in customer funds is raking in billions while the audited stable coin is losing millions.
2) Take a look at things like Coinbase app ranking. As well all know well, Coinbase is the main fiat onramp. Unfortunately, its app growth has remained flat since the 3200 bottom. In fact, when BTC was last at these prices coinbase app was # 1 in all categories in the entire world. Today it ranks around #36 in the finance category.
3) Take a look at Google trends and you'll see that retail interest just isn't reflected. Look at it sating back through 2017 and 2018.
4) So you say institutions are buying up BTC. Well, sad to say, they aren't. Here is the latest CFTC commitment of traders report for CME. Scroll down to commercial interest on BTC. You'll see that there are 0 institutional longs and indeed there haven't been any institutional longs for weeks now. Truth about institutional interest in BTC is that it has less interest than every other asset listed for futures on the regulated CME market. Even lean hogs have more interest than BTC.
****Don't take this as me knocking on BTC. That is not what I am doing. Rather it is me pointing out the blaring discrepancy in Tether from every other gauge we have on the markets. Retail interest hasn't increased, other stablecoin supplies are decreasing while Tether grows by several billions. instutional interest isn't there. All that is pumping the market is fake Tether. Having said that, don't fight the trend. A mere 16% of the volume is done on USD. Tether has the clear upper hand here and can print unlimited fake money to pump prices, so don't try to outshort things with actual real USD.
Comment:
This was the last Tether trading idea.
