A-B-C Wave Begins For Bitcoin. $100,000 Post Halving?
The Bitcoin price decreased significantly on February 26, creating a bearish engulfing candlestick and breaking down well below the previous support level. This caused daily RSI to drop below 50, invalidating my previous five wave formation. Rather, it seems that the formation ended at the $10,491 high.
But, the price has just reached the 200-day MA and seems to be bouncing, so we could be due for a relief rally/bounce. This also fits well with an A-B-C correction, which is quite common after a five wave upward move. If the correction takes the same amount of time as the upward move, it will be finished on April 10 near $7800.
The likeliest place for it to end would be between $9500-$9600, both a previous support level and the 0.5 fib level of the entire decrease.
While there will likely be ups and downs throughout the way, I am expecting the price to eventually get there and decrease afterwards.
The completion of the correction also fits well with the logarithmic chart and the halvening date. The price has increased significantly before the first two halvings, so the same is expected now. The third halvening is projected to occur on May 20 (black line). If the correction ends near April 10 (white line) at $7800, this would serve to validate the ascending support line and also leave enough time for the BTC price to begin an upward trend.
But, the price has just reached the 200-day MA and seems to be bouncing, so we could be due for a relief rally/bounce. This also fits well with an A-B-C correction, which is quite common after a five wave upward move. If the correction takes the same amount of time as the upward move, it will be finished on April 10 near $7800.
The likeliest place for it to end would be between $9500-$9600, both a previous support level and the 0.5 fib level of the entire decrease.
While there will likely be ups and downs throughout the way, I am expecting the price to eventually get there and decrease afterwards.
The completion of the correction also fits well with the logarithmic chart and the halvening date. The price has increased significantly before the first two halvings, so the same is expected now. The third halvening is projected to occur on May 20 (black line). If the correction ends near April 10 (white line) at $7800, this would serve to validate the ascending support line and also leave enough time for the BTC price to begin an upward trend.
Comment:
Here it is! BTC finally broke out from its trading range. The B-wave is well underway.
Let's see how the price reacts to this resistance area.
Here it is! BTC finally broke out from its trading range. The B-wave is well underway.
Let's see how the price reacts to this resistance area.
Comment:
Zooming out slightly to see the entire B-wave.
It is very interesting to see how the daily RSI is approaching 50 from below (48.4 currently).
It would make a lot of sense if it hits 50 the same time BTC reaches the resistance area. That would be a perfect alignment for initiating a short.
Zooming out slightly to see the entire B-wave.
It is very interesting to see how the daily RSI is approaching 50 from below (48.4 currently).
It would make a lot of sense if it hits 50 the same time BTC reaches the resistance area. That would be a perfect alignment for initiating a short.
Comment:
Another way to look at this movement would be by using the Wyckoff accumulation method.
Phase A began with the “Selling Climax” on Oct. 24, 2019, that was succeeded by the “Automatic Response.” These highs/lows are also outlining the support and resistance areas of the range.
In phase B, the price created slightly lower lows in the “Secondary Test,” which was followed by an increase that was completed at the range highs. If the price continues following this accumulation, the next move is supposed to be a validation of the $9,500 area, followed by a decrease, that marks the beginning of phase C.
In this phase, there are two possible movements, which are outlined by the dashed and solid lines. The dashed line suggests a lower low being created, which would offer the maximum return for investors looking to buy at the level, while the solid line (more common) would create a higher low. The result is the same in both, since BTC is expected to increase afterward.
Phase D is the breakout, with the high above the “Automatic Response” being considered the “Show of Strength,” while phase E takes the price to new territory.
If you want me to make a separate idea only looking at the Wyckoff accumulation model, please like & comment, otherwise it would be not worth it to go through the trouble.
Phase A began with the “Selling Climax” on Oct. 24, 2019, that was succeeded by the “Automatic Response.” These highs/lows are also outlining the support and resistance areas of the range.
In phase B, the price created slightly lower lows in the “Secondary Test,” which was followed by an increase that was completed at the range highs. If the price continues following this accumulation, the next move is supposed to be a validation of the $9,500 area, followed by a decrease, that marks the beginning of phase C.
In this phase, there are two possible movements, which are outlined by the dashed and solid lines. The dashed line suggests a lower low being created, which would offer the maximum return for investors looking to buy at the level, while the solid line (more common) would create a higher low. The result is the same in both, since BTC is expected to increase afterward.
Phase D is the breakout, with the high above the “Automatic Response” being considered the “Show of Strength,” while phase E takes the price to new territory.
If you want me to make a separate idea only looking at the Wyckoff accumulation model, please like & comment, otherwise it would be not worth it to go through the trouble.
The increase took longer than expected, but the price is finally moving upwards.
After a RSI bounce at the 50-line, I am expecting a range breakout, which would confirm that the B wave is underway.
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