Now that we've closed 2 candles below the 50 MA it's looking like probability favors the short game over the long game. Usually we wait for 3 or 5 closes below the 50MA to confirm we are back in a sellers market first so this current 4hr candle is very important....if it closes below odds are good we have more downside to follow. A short at that time would not be a bad call...a more conservative approach would be to wait until the price dips and closes below the bottom hotpink trendline, or even after that below the lowest light pink fibline...if neither of those can hold support then more downside is very likely. Also all this recent downside make the possibility of the death cross on the 1 day chart that much more likely...if we continue to dip the 1day death cross will likely happen in the next few days. Which only means more downside...so for now probability favors the short side as does the idea....don't pull the short trigger until somewhere around 3-5 closes below the 50MA on the 4 hour though to be safe, uness you've already shorted when we started making lower highs/lower lows. If you did continue to stay short until we see a clear trend reversal.
Comment:
Currently you can see the price action is finding support on the hot pink trendline of the last big retracements low if we close below that that's your signal that we need to go short but if it can maintain that line we may see a trend reversal and possibly even a double bottom. If it closes below that and the 100% fib line then more downside is a very high p[robability. Thanks for reading! ***DISCLAIMER: not financial advice**
Comment:
The last 1hr candle closed as a bullish engulfing candle. That is a great sign for a potential reversal...hopefully it will allow us to close above the 50MA on the 4hr and prevent us from having 3 consecutive candle closes below the buy sell. If so we will flip abck to neutral.
Comment:
we had another bullish engulfing candle a few hours ago that did not result in a reversal however so there's always exceptions...hopefully this one will reverse the trend.
Comment:
an encouraging sign on the 1 hour chart as the price action is finallly acting the way it normally should after a bullish engulfing candle...lifting us up for a 1 hour cose above the 1 hour t line and thus lifting us above the 50MA on the 4hr and sending the 4hr candle up to test the 4hr Tline.....very encouraging sign but we still have 2 hours left to go on this 4 hour candle ansd we want to close above the 50MA...the best sign would be if we can get back above the t line on the 4 hour chart. You can tell we are about to test the T line.