Now we finally have something to talk about! Take a look at those short contracts (red line) and see how they dropped like crazy. Long contracts (green line) are coasting at about the same level, perhaps a small uptrend. The shorts dropped from 23k to 17k, making this a 25%+ drop. If you look at those shorts on even the 15min or 5min timeframes, that drop is just as SUDDEN. What insight can we gather from this? ONE group or person was holding that many shorts. There wasn't a 3AM party and everyone closed out their shorts...one group was likely responsible. 6,000 short contracts is over $30M. If a group this size was in possession of this many shorts, very good chance they were responsible for suppressing the price of BTC last few days/weeks - depends when and how quickly they were accumulating these shorts.
Why did the close out the shorts? Sounds like they are changing plans. Or they believe the market will behave differently today. We've been under the assumption that someone larger is toying with prices and shaping the course of BTC, but sometimes they too must succumb to the pressures of the market. There's a balance between how much they can force the price where they want it, and when must they act accordingly so that the organic pressures don't lose them money?
Either way, they don't want to be in a large short position if they anticipate (or will stimulate) some upward movement on Bitcoin in the coming days. The small sell-off currently happening, in my opinion is just a smoke screen. If you see lots of volume over the next few hours then I'll be fairly confident in my guess - someone is using the dip they triggered to open a large number of long contracts. The question is...will this move up be based on insider news someone is anticipating will hit? Or will it just be a sudden pump without further warning? Just keep an eye on those volume bars and long contracts - if both go up...strap in.
Why did the close out the shorts? Sounds like they are changing plans. Or they believe the market will behave differently today. We've been under the assumption that someone larger is toying with prices and shaping the course of BTC, but sometimes they too must succumb to the pressures of the market. There's a balance between how much they can force the price where they want it, and when must they act accordingly so that the organic pressures don't lose them money?
Either way, they don't want to be in a large short position if they anticipate (or will stimulate) some upward movement on Bitcoin in the coming days. The small sell-off currently happening, in my opinion is just a smoke screen. If you see lots of volume over the next few hours then I'll be fairly confident in my guess - someone is using the dip they triggered to open a large number of long contracts. The question is...will this move up be based on insider news someone is anticipating will hit? Or will it just be a sudden pump without further warning? Just keep an eye on those volume bars and long contracts - if both go up...strap in.
