Evening analysis August 2, 2018 | Hello 5000

Decided to do a quick analysis. Hope y'all enjoy. Cheers!

Ask any questions here :)

Comment:

If you haven't seen my previous videos, I have listed why I thought 8500 was going to be the ultimate top to this run and why we will go down further into the low $5000 and $4000 range. And here's the formula to get us there.

The formula for the next bull run:
1. Make exchanges safer for investors
2. Regulation needs to come in
3. Strong catalyst such as starting ETFs or government(s) moving money into crypto
4. Clean up fraud and manipulation in the market
5. Mass adoption and use from retail consumers and corporations
6. Panic + capitulation to bring price down significantly
7. More direct fiat on-ramps built for the novice retail consumer to get in on crypto
8. Get weak hands out of the market and put BTC -2.59% -4.36% and alts in the hands of strong investors who believe in this space

If we check off all the 8 points above fairly successfully, I believe we are ready for the next bull run.

When will this happen? Just a guess: If the past is any indication anywhere from 3 months to another 9 months.

What will be the bottom? Just a guess: Somewhere between the $3500-4500. I came up w/ this range because BTC -2.59% -4.36% has a history of retracing 80-90% from its previous bull cycle beginning price. Also, there is significant support around this range as well as the 100 MA (weekly).

Please see my post here:

My opinion is the bottom for Bitcoin -2.59% -4.36% will not be a straight drop and then reverse (V bounce). I think this market will bleed to the point where people just lose all hope and this takes a long time to accomplish. Whether this is 3 more months or another full year. It will happen eventually.

I am bullish in BTC -2.59% -4.36% in the long-run but for now I am still bearish and have been since Feb/March.

Fun prediction: I think we over the next few months we go to low $5000 and break under that 786 fib mentioned in my analysis above. We spent the next few months under this level and finally start the next bull run around March 4, 2019. How did I come up with that date? Read Jake Chervinsky's BTC -2.59% -4.36% ETF decision calculation on his Twitter page.