BTC 69k was NOT the top - Elliot Waves - Downside Targets
Hey Guys,
Here is my Elliott Waves for BTC. First of all, I will start by presenting my arguments why 69k was not the top, and in fact the top was back in April '21 at ~63k.
First of all, any cycle top indicator, including the PI cycle top and bitcoin super cycle (both available on TradingView) point out the top was in April. Additionally, if you look at the volume moving averages below, you will see we have seen majorly declining volume on BTC since April, especially in buy-side volume, as with common momentum indicators making lower highs (such as the MACD), which is indicative of a dead cat bounce.
Then, if we don't look at Bitcoin vs the US dollar and in fact look into other assets such as the NDX (NASDAQ100) we see a different story and Bitcoin putting in a lower high!
Finally, I will address the question, where is our alt-season? We already had it. Alts were going parabolic in May as you can see by the TOTAL2 chart.
So, we have a blow-off top in April for Bitcoin, Altseason, next is the B wave correction from the summer lows up to 69k, known as a flat correction - which can sometimes go above point 0, where the correction began.
So, what next?
A 3-3-5 Flat consists of 3 waves, wave C is an impulsive wave to the downside, consisting of 5 waves. Typically, wave 4 retraces wave 3 by 23.6 - 38.2%, which it did when it bounced off $32,299. So, naturally, we are entering the final leg down of the correction, wave 5. This is a fib extension from waves 1-3, with a minimum extension of 38.2% and usually up to 61.8%. This gives my minimum target of $21,911 and a maximum bottom of the 0.618 at $17,254 with a possibility of the 0.50.
With the 200-Week moving average typically marking the bottom, I see the 0.382 as the most likely bottom target, which I have marked on the chart above.
Cheers for reading. Let me know what you think
Here is my Elliott Waves for BTC. First of all, I will start by presenting my arguments why 69k was not the top, and in fact the top was back in April '21 at ~63k.
First of all, any cycle top indicator, including the PI cycle top and bitcoin super cycle (both available on TradingView) point out the top was in April. Additionally, if you look at the volume moving averages below, you will see we have seen majorly declining volume on BTC since April, especially in buy-side volume, as with common momentum indicators making lower highs (such as the MACD), which is indicative of a dead cat bounce.
Then, if we don't look at Bitcoin vs the US dollar and in fact look into other assets such as the NDX (NASDAQ100) we see a different story and Bitcoin putting in a lower high!
Finally, I will address the question, where is our alt-season? We already had it. Alts were going parabolic in May as you can see by the TOTAL2 chart.
So, we have a blow-off top in April for Bitcoin, Altseason, next is the B wave correction from the summer lows up to 69k, known as a flat correction - which can sometimes go above point 0, where the correction began.
So, what next?
A 3-3-5 Flat consists of 3 waves, wave C is an impulsive wave to the downside, consisting of 5 waves. Typically, wave 4 retraces wave 3 by 23.6 - 38.2%, which it did when it bounced off $32,299. So, naturally, we are entering the final leg down of the correction, wave 5. This is a fib extension from waves 1-3, with a minimum extension of 38.2% and usually up to 61.8%. This gives my minimum target of $21,911 and a maximum bottom of the 0.618 at $17,254 with a possibility of the 0.50.
With the 200-Week moving average typically marking the bottom, I see the 0.382 as the most likely bottom target, which I have marked on the chart above.
Cheers for reading. Let me know what you think