BTC hit $7000+ after a retracement $7492+ still likely
Thanks for viewing everyone.
I posted recently that if $7000+ was reached, that would be the peak of wave (3). As long as the retracement that follows doesn't go below the wave (1) peak then we are still on for $7486+ (the projected wave (5) extreme).
$7492+ will just establish that BTC still has some life in it, but it won't take it past / far past the downward trend-line. My plan of attack is to sell at the upper trend-line (ladder sell starting at the 1.618 fib extension level) in order to watch the correction closely. If we go more than a little below the wave (1) peak then we can say that $7492+ is off the table - which isn't something that lot's of people really want to do just yet. In highly leveraged markets we have to accept some impingement on wave 1 by wave 4 but only on longer time-frames. While Bitfinex isn't highly leveraged, BTC price is influenced by platforms that allow people to over use leverage (remember there is no downside for the platform - just the user).
The good news is that wave (3) can retrace slightly more than the 0.5 retracement level before reaching the wave (1) peak. So there is room to move.
What the bulls will be looking for is:
- the wave (4) low not to come into the wave (1) price range,
- Wave (5) to be strong (and there remains the possibility that it may extend - in which case the 1.618 extension will mean leaving gains on the table and the 2.618 level would be more appropriate)
- Good volume when price is moving up,
- an upper trend-line break (but I see this as less important as the retracement not breaking any of the rules).
If we see those, then we can still maintain a view that primary (or whatever scale) wave 1 has happened - completing at $8500+ and we are in sub-wave 1 of wave 3 up to the $10,500+ range to definitively break the upper trend-line and leave the bear market well behind. So I will buy back in if the wave (1) range isn't violated by wave (4) aiming for $10,500+. It's not pie in the sky people, but there is still a lot of price action to unfold at this stage so I am just outlining a possibility, rather than a likely outcome at this stage.
I am not an experienced trader, technical analyst, financial adviser, or your Mum, so please do your own research. Protect those funds people, and good luck. I am a long-term bull on bitcoin.
I posted recently that if $7000+ was reached, that would be the peak of wave (3). As long as the retracement that follows doesn't go below the wave (1) peak then we are still on for $7486+ (the projected wave (5) extreme).
$7492+ will just establish that BTC still has some life in it, but it won't take it past / far past the downward trend-line. My plan of attack is to sell at the upper trend-line (ladder sell starting at the 1.618 fib extension level) in order to watch the correction closely. If we go more than a little below the wave (1) peak then we can say that $7492+ is off the table - which isn't something that lot's of people really want to do just yet. In highly leveraged markets we have to accept some impingement on wave 1 by wave 4 but only on longer time-frames. While Bitfinex isn't highly leveraged, BTC price is influenced by platforms that allow people to over use leverage (remember there is no downside for the platform - just the user).
The good news is that wave (3) can retrace slightly more than the 0.5 retracement level before reaching the wave (1) peak. So there is room to move.
What the bulls will be looking for is:
- the wave (4) low not to come into the wave (1) price range,
- Wave (5) to be strong (and there remains the possibility that it may extend - in which case the 1.618 extension will mean leaving gains on the table and the 2.618 level would be more appropriate)
- Good volume when price is moving up,
- an upper trend-line break (but I see this as less important as the retracement not breaking any of the rules).
If we see those, then we can still maintain a view that primary (or whatever scale) wave 1 has happened - completing at $8500+ and we are in sub-wave 1 of wave 3 up to the $10,500+ range to definitively break the upper trend-line and leave the bear market well behind. So I will buy back in if the wave (1) range isn't violated by wave (4) aiming for $10,500+. It's not pie in the sky people, but there is still a lot of price action to unfold at this stage so I am just outlining a possibility, rather than a likely outcome at this stage.
I am not an experienced trader, technical analyst, financial adviser, or your Mum, so please do your own research. Protect those funds people, and good luck. I am a long-term bull on bitcoin.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Not quite to $7500 but it made $7410.